Perspective

[Snowball]

Target (established with 15 games remaining) = 73 points

10 games left = 1.9ppg required

7 games left = 1.43ppg required

New Target, to finish in the autos, maybe be champions, when QPR get a smack

[Snowball]

Form over the final 15 games, with 15 Match Projection*

* I do not mean that I think these runs will continue, but merely what happens IF they do

No optimism or pessimism, just projections based on form so far for the final 15 games of the season


92 QPR
81 Reading
80 Norwich
79 Swansea
78 Cardiff
73 Leeds

69 Millwall
68 Hull
67 Leicester
63 Forest
62 Watford

Played 9 23 Points 2.56 ppg Reading DWDWWWWWW >>>> 38 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 81

Played 9 19 Points 2.11 ppg QPR..... DWWWLWWWL >>>>> 31/32 Points from 15, Predicted. Finish on 91/92

Played 9 16 Points 1.77 ppg Norwich DDWDWWDWL >>> 26 Points from 15, Predicted, Finish on 80
Played 9 16 Points 1.77 ppg Swansea WWWLDLWLW >>>> 26 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 79

Played 9 11 Points 1.56 ppg Watford LDWDWWLLL >>>>> 17 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 62
Played 9 14 Points 1.56 ppg Hull C.. DWLWLWDLW >>>> 23 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 68


Played 9 13 Points 1.45 ppg Leeds DDLWWDLWL >>> 22 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 73

Played 9 14 Points 1.56 ppg Millwall LLDLWWDWW >>>>> 23 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 69
Played 9 14 Points 1.56 ppg Cardiff LWWLLDDWW >>>> 23 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 78

Played 9 11 Points 1.22 ppg Leicester WLDLLWLDW >>>> 18 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 67

Played 9 04 Points 0.56 ppg Forest DDDLLDLLL >>> 7 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 63


OUR GAME IN HAND (if it was played this week)

Played 7 17 Points 2.42 ppg Reading DWDWWWW >>>> 36 Points from 15 If we win
Played 7 15 Points 2.14 ppg Reading DWDWWWD >>>>>32 Points from 15 If we draw
Played 7 14 Points 2.00 ppg Reading DWDWWWL >>>>> 30 Points from 15 if we lose to Preston

[Snowball]

Our 9 game run, 9 games of the last 15 (2.56 ppg)


equates to a 118 Point Season

[Snowball]

Not only have we won our last six on the bounce but we've beaten 5 IN-FORM sides

Boro and Millwall's only recent defeat is by us.

Apart from us Preston Preston were 3-1-1, Barnsley 2-2-1, Portsmouth 2-2-1


Clubs to play are in bold


Considering their overall form is boosted by a win on Saturday Swansea and Cardiff are surprisingly low.

01 6 6 0 0 2 0 17 7 +10 18 3.00 Reading

02 6 4 1 1 3 1 12 6 +6 13 2.17 Millwall (Their defeat was by Reading)
03 6 4 0 2 2 0 12 9 +3 12 2.00 Bristol City
04 6 4 0 2 3 1 8 7 +1 12 2.00 Queens Park Rangers

05 6 3 2 1 1 1 14 8 +6 11 1.83 Norwich City
06 6 3 2 1 1 1 11 11 0 11 1.83 Middlesbrough (Lost to Reading)
07 6 3 1 2 1 2 13 9 +4 10 1.67 Leeds United
08 6 3 1 2 1 0 10 7 +3 10 1.67 Preston North End (Lost to Reading)
09 6 3 1 2 2 2 5 4 +1 10 1.67 Hull City
10 6 3 1 2 2 2 7 8 -1 10 1.67 Ipswich Town
11 6 2 2 2 0 2 12 10 +2 8 1.33 Cardiff City
12 6 2 2 2 1 2 9 8 +1 8 1.33 Barnsley (Lost to Reading)
13 6 2 2 2 3 2 4 5 -1 8 1.33 Portsmouth (Lost to Reading)
14 6 2 1 3 2 2 12 8 +4 7 1.17 Leicester City
15 6 2 1 3 2 1 9 7 +2 7 1.17 Watford
16 6 2 1 3 1 1 9 8 +1 7 1.17 Swansea City
17 6 2 1 3 1 1 7 8 -1 7 1.17 Crystal Palace
18 6 1 3 2 1 1 8 8 0 6 1.00 Coventry City
19 6 1 3 2 1 1 8 11 -3 6 1.00 Derby County
20 6 2 0 4 1 3 5 10 -5 6 1.00 Sheffield United
21 6 1 1 4 1 3 4 13 -9 4 0.67 Burnley
22 6 1 0 5 0 4 5 17 -12 3 0.50 Scunthorpe United
23 6 0 2 4 1 3 4 11 -7 2 0.33 Doncaster Rovers
24 6 0 1 5 1 2 7 14 -7 1 0.17 Nottingham Forest (lost to RFC)

[donface]

This thread's gone right downhill for the last ten or so pages.

[RobRoyal]

Our 9 game run, 9 games of the last 15 (2.56 ppg)


equates to a 118 Point Season

OUR LAST 6 GAMES, 18 POINTS (3ppg)

equates to a 138 Point Season

[brendywendy]

[T.R.O.L.I.]

[Snowball]

Our 9 game run, 9 games of the last 15 (2.56 ppg)


equates to a 118 Point Season

OUR LAST 6 GAMES, 18 POINTS (3ppg)

equates to a 138 Point Season

Could you make that larger?

[RobRoyal]

Could you make that larger?

No, 138 points is a big as you can get

[Arch]

Currently 42 from our last 23 - half a season of automatic promotion form. Win our next two and we'll be on the magic 2 ppg for a half-season.

[Snowball]

Could you make that larger?

No, 138 points is a big as you can get

Maybe there's a bonus for winning all yer games...

[Snowball]

Currently 42 from our last 23 - half a season of automatic promotion form. Win our next two and we'll be on the magic 2 ppg for a half-season.

Good Stat. Didn't think it was quite that good. Would equate to an 84 Point Season, and probably automatic promotion.

A 1-1 Watford
H 0-0 Leeds
H 0-0 Coventry
A 2-1 Derby
H 4-1 Bristol
A 1-1 Hull
A 0-1 Swansea
H 2-1 Burnley
A 3-0 Doncaster
H 1-1 Hull
A 2-2 Cardiff
H 0-1 QPR
A 1-2 Norwich
A 1-1 Sheffield Utd
H 1-1 Watford
H 2-1 Millwall
A 3-3 Crystal Palace
H 5-2 Middlesbrough
A 3-1 Ipswich T
A 1-0 Barnsley
H 2-0 Portsmouth
H 2-1 Preston
A 4-3 Nottm Forest

P 23 W11 D9 L3 41-25 42 Points GD 16 (1.83 ppg)

[JC]

The important thing at present I would suggest is current form. If you look at the last 8 games you will find the following

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/oform.html

Remaining games with the teams current form position

23 Scunthorpe
18 Leicester
14 Leeds
22 Sheff Utd
20 Coventry
17 Derby

If you could have chosen the fixtures it would not have been very different. I was quite surprised how low Leeds and Leicester are.

[MmmMonsterMunch]

Our 9 game run, 9 games of the last 15 (2.56 ppg)


equates to a 118 Point Season

OUR LAST 6 GAMES, 18 POINTS (3ppg)

equates to a 138 Point Season

Ha ha that made me LOL. Talk about pick the numbers to fit - pretty sure most teams in the country would have a 100+ point season if you extrapolate data at a certain point in time.

[Arch]

The important thing at present I would suggest is current form. If you look at the last 8 games you will find the following

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/oform.html

Remaining games with the teams current form position

23 Scunthorpe
18 Leicester
14 Leeds
22 Sheff Utd
20 Coventry
17 Derby

If you could have chosen the fixtures it would not have been very different. I was quite surprised how low Leeds and Leicester are.

Actually, I'm going to disagree about the first bit. There have been times this season when Forest, Burnley, Watford, Leicester, and Portsmouth went on runs that were comparable to our last eight games (perhaps not quite as good, but Watford, for example, won seven in a row at one stage). Those runs can be determined in part by fortune, and obviously they can come to an end. Longer term success, such as 42 points from 23 games, is more telling in my view.

[Snowball]

Our 9 game run, 9 games of the last 15 (2.56 ppg)


equates to a 118 Point Season

OUR LAST 6 GAMES, 18 POINTS (3ppg)

equates to a 138 Point Season

Ha ha that made me LOL. Talk about pick the numbers to fit - pretty sure most teams in the country would have a 100+ point season if you extrapolate data at a certain point in time.

In MY CASE I picked "The final 15 games" before those games started, stating what we needed (30 points) and arguing whether we could make it or not.


I've stuck to that same 15 games and each game we play strengthens and makes more meaningful, the average.

So, after tomorrow's game we'll have played 10 of the 15

With our DWD followed by WWWWWW (23 points) we are 7 points off our target of 30 with 6 games to go.

It will be a huge shock now, not to make that 2 ppg target. We raise our sights and tilt at automatic.

[Snowball]

Form over the final 15 games, with 15 Match Projection*

Now 10 of the 15 games played

* I do not mean that I think these runs will continue, but merely what happens IF they do

No optimism or pessimism, just projections based on form so far for the final 15 games of the season 10/15 played

Of course these are trends only. They don't take into consideration hard or easy games to come


93 QPR
82 Reading
80 Cardiff (80-81)
79 Norwich (79-80)
78 Swansea (78-79)
70 Leeds (70-71)

68 Millwall (68-69)
67 Hull (67-68)
67 Leicester
63 Forest
63 Watford

Played 10 26 Points 2.60 ppg Reading DWDWWWWWWW >>>> 39 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 82

Played 10 22 Points 2.20 ppg QPR..... DWWWLWWWLW >>>>> 33 Points from 15, Predicted. Finish on 93

Played 10 17 Points 1.70 ppg Cardiff LWWLLDDWWW >>>> 25.5 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 80-81
Played 10 17 Points 1.70 ppg Norwich DDWDWWDWL >>> 23.5 Points from 15, Predicted, Finish on 79-80
Played 10 17 Points 1.70 ppg Swansea WWWLDLWLWD >>>> 23.5 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 78-79

Played 10 15 Points 1.50 ppg Millwall LLDLWWDWWD >>>>> 22.5 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 68-69
Played 10 15 Points 1.50 ppg Hull C.. DWLWLWDLWD >>>> 22.5 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 67-68

Played 10 13 Points 1.30 ppg Leeds DDLWWDLWLL >>> 19.5 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 70-71

Played 10 12 Points 1.20 ppg Watford LDWDWWLLLD >>>>> 18 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 63
Played 10 12 Points 1.20 ppg Leicester WLDLLWLDWD >>>> 18 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 67

Played 10 07 Points 0.70 ppg Forest DDDLLDLLLW >>> 10.5 Points from 15 Predicted, Finish on 67

[Snowball]

Now, about this not being good enough with Gylfi in the side...


Last season we FINISHED, after 46 games...

9 Reading 46 17-12-17 68-63 GD 05 63 Points 2009-10
5 Reading 41 18-15-08 70-46 GD 24 69 Points 2010-11

(WITH 5 GAMES TO PLAY)

WON one more game
Drawn three more games
Lost 9 games less

Scored two goals more
Conceded 17 goals less


and with 5 games to go, that's pretty comprehensive

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

Can you break that down into the real difference from last season?

BM using the players he has in a system that works, rather than BR trying to fit square pegs into round holes.