by Snowball »
15 Dec 2012 09:21
I think, maybe we are looking at accumulating the necessary points tally in the wrong way.
We have just lost 5 on the bounce and are only 6 points from safety.
First, as someone has already posted, we have our relegation rivals at the MadStad.
We have to win at least 3 of these, probably all 5, and if we can win those games
(just talking about 5 wins here) we are on 24, and looking for 10-20 points from
17 games. Take out the presumed losses to Arsenal, Man C, Man U, 12 games.
Those wins (against relegation rivals) move us at least 3 points closer, and bring us to
a slightly advantageous Goal Difference. IF we can get those wins all we need is a steady
ship, say 12+ points from those other 12 games (total 36) and hope that our rivals take
points of each other in crappy 0-0s.
It's certainly still possible, but now, because we blew the away games, we HAVE to win the big five.
And we have Karacan and Morrison to come back in, maybe a return to form for Gorkss and Elwood,
possibly Guthrie and the Pog (both known decent Prem players), and Pearce playing, maybe even Kebe
and 2-3-4 possibles in January.
I wouldn't bet on us staying up, but the margins are narrow.
We lost to late goals at Wigan and Villa. Had those been draws...
16 16 -10 15 Southampton
17 16 -12 13 Aston Villa
18 16 -14 13 Wigan
19 16 -10 11 Reading
20 16 -16 07 QPR
We deserved to lose at Southampton, but again it was a single goal. Had that been "a lucky 0-0" it would be
16 16 -11 13 Southampton
17 16 -12 13 Aston Villa
18 16 -14 13 Wigan
19 16 -09 12 Reading
20 16 -16 07 QPR