Magic Number to Survive Relegation

[Reading4eva]

Its interesting the funny thing being that most of the teams bottom of the league at Christmas are a bad bottom. Look at Derby, Watford, Sunderland for example. We werent really... and neither was West Brom when they survived after being at the foot of the table.

[Millsy]

I have it on good authority that the FA are considering 30 will be good enough for this season, because of the recession.

Good news

[Reading4eva]

On a side note, people keep saying it's going to only be 35 to stay up this season.

I actually don't agree at all - everyone down there is picking up points & to say that 3 teams will only get a max of 34 points is being far too optimistic IMO.

I can see it going to the final day & 1 perhaps even 2 of the 3 going on GD. I think Reading, QPR, Wigan, Saints, Norwich, Newcastle, Fulham etc will all regularly pick up points. The only ones I can envisage dropping like a stone is Villa.

I wouldn't say that would be far wrong, as whoever finishes bottom this season wont be a bad bottom, unless QPR just explode and don't pick up another point all season, which I cant see happening. Most seasons the league has the whipping boys, and although after the Sunderland game we'd take that title, I'm not so sure now. What I'm trying to get at, is if one team are struggling so badly and finish with 18 points for example, those points go elsewhere pushing that figure up. If all 3 teams that go down, get to 30 for example, yes it will be tighter (like we saw in 2004/05 when West Brom escaped), but less points will be required.

Although I cant see it being as tight (in my honest opinion, I think Villa are most likely to explode, especially if Vlaar picks up another knock) this season, it will be tighter than the past 3 seasons.

[Ian Royal]

Now we're getting somewhere. although I'd have a magic number representing points required

Put simply you can't really have a magic number if you are currently in the bottom 3, so your magic number is the points available

It's frightening how many people have so much difficulty understanding this.

[redscot]

Now we're getting somewhere. although I'd have a magic number representing points required

Put simply you can't really have a magic number if you are currently in the bottom 3, so your magic number is the points available

It's frightening how many people have so much difficulty understanding this.

Its the "magic" that people do not understand. Use another word and everybody understands. Use "magic" and people act like they have eaten mushrooms.....

I think safety number is better as there is no magic involved. Only getting enough points to guarantee safety.

[redscot]

Up until know there has been talk of the Magic number or safety number. Is there still need to discuss this number anymore?

[Reading4eva]

Yes

[Niko]

17 is the magic number.

(stolen from someone else on a similar thread)

[seahawk10]

WNG

this

or DNG if it is a top four team

[Cureton's Volley]

Forget the magic number. We just take each game as a new opportunity to win three points. We move on.... We do it again.

[Ian Royal]

Agree with rumpole, but we do now actually have a Magic Number that works. It's 42. And depending on results in specific games we're involved in, it could be as low as 36 I think - draws against Villa, Wigan and QPR would still see us above them providing we win the rest. I think.

That's points from our remaining games, not total.

[redscot]

Or get more points than villa, wigan and qpr.

[SydenhamRoyal]

17 is the magic number.

(stolen from someone else on a similar thread)

same thread ... was me

Re: Magic Number to Survive Relegation

Postby SydenhamRoyal » 22 Jan 2013 20:02
17
3 will not

[Stuka]

I posted that lame joke the very second post on this thread!

[Niko]

17 is the magic number.

(stolen from someone else on a similar thread)

same thread ... was me

Re: Magic Number to Survive Relegation

Postby SydenhamRoyal » 22 Jan 2013 20:02
17
3 will not

Someone merged another thread with this one!

[redscot]

My poll has been merged into this thread, but where is the poll?????

If it is lost, I can give the results before they got deleted.

POLL: Do we need to bother with Magic numbers now?!?
People could choose from: No, Yes or Dont know.

The result was a massive No!!!

[Geekins]

Forget the magic number. We just take each game as a new opportunity to win three points. We move on.... We do it again.

Hello Cureton's Volley, i hope your Le Fondre's Volley username gets approved soon!

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Before full-time whistles on Saturday 2 February, with 14 league matches remaining (and confining it for now to the current bottom three)

QPR: Any combination of 39 points won by RFC/dropped by QPR would see R a point clear

Villa: Any combination of 43 points won by RFC/dropped by Villa would see R a point clear

Wigan: Any combination of 43 points won by RFC/dropped by Wigan would see R a point clear


And now, with 13 league matches remaining

QPR: Any combination of 34 points won by RFC/dropped by QPR would see R a point clear

Villa: Any combination of 38 points won by RFC/dropped by Villa would see R a point clear

Wigan: Any combination of 38 points won by RFC/dropped by Wigan would see R a point clear


So with the bottom three dropping two points apiece and our boys taking three, that knocks the number down by five relative to each


Looking ahead...
Wigan play QPR away on 6 April and finish the season at home to Villa

Villa are home to QPR on 16 March

RFC are home to Wigan on 23 February, home to Villa on 9 March, and home to QPR on 27 April

[Ian Royal]

You go girl!

[JC]

Before full-time whistles on Saturday 2 February, with 14 league matches remaining (and confining it for now to the current bottom three)

QPR: Any combination of 39 points won by RFC/dropped by QPR would see R a point clear

Villa: Any combination of 43 points won by RFC/dropped by Villa would see R a point clear

Wigan: Any combination of 43 points won by RFC/dropped by Wigan would see R a point clear


And now, with 13 league matches remaining

QPR: Any combination of 34 points won by RFC/dropped by QPR would see R a point clear

Villa: Any combination of 38 points won by RFC/dropped by Villa would see R a point clear

Wigan: Any combination of 38 points won by RFC/dropped by Wigan would see R a point clear


So with the bottom three dropping two points apiece and our boys taking three, that knocks the number down by five relative to each


Looking ahead...
Wigan play QPR away on 6 April and finish the season at home to Villa

Villa are home to QPR on 16 March

RFC are home to Wigan on 23 February, home to Villa on 9 March, and home to QPR on 27 April

If you go back 10 games and plot the number relative to 18th place then it has fallen from 70 after 18 games to 38 after 25 games. At that rate we would be safe in another 8 or so games !!