Who will go down?

[Cookie]

Sunderland for me. Them not winning at Derby 10 days back was a massive result for us, they're yet to win away from home and that should have been an easy banker for them. I think history shows you can't rely solely on home form and the pressure is on for Keane.

You might be right, but current form is a big factor here, and on that count Newcastle Utd are even worse than Derby.

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/oform.html

Look where Sunderland and Wigan are on current form!!
My money's on the Magpies for the drop. The stats don't lie.

[Dirk Gently]

Sunderland for me. Them not winning at Derby 10 days back was a massive result for us, they're yet to win away from home and that should have been an easy banker for them. I think history shows you can't rely solely on home form and the pressure is on for Keane.

You might be right, but current form is a big factor here, and on that count Newcastle Utd are even worse than Derby.

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/oform.html

Look where Sunderland and Wigan are on current form!!
My money's on the Magpies for the drop. The stats don't lie.

Ah, but only 12 days ago that would have shown the same for us. It doesn't take much to change things around.

Personally, I like the way Roy Keane appears to be getting closer to total paranoia on an almost daily basis -

Sunderland boss Roy Keane has admitted he feels "paranoid" about the way the club has been treated by referees in the Premier League this season. He told BBC Radio Newcastle: "Five major decisions have gone against us.

"We keep talking about fairness but the decisions certainly haven't gone our way. You're looking at six points lost.

"I spoke to Mike Riley after the Derby game but you get little satisfaction because the game has gone. You end up feeling paranoid about things."

He added: "Since I've been in the job I've been to see three referees. That's not bad going really considering the decisions that have gone against us," he said.

"I find it very hard to take some of the comments that come my way from referees and officials and generally the attitude to our football club has left me very disappointed.

"The attitude seems to be 'It's only Sunderland'. All we're asking for is fairness in the game and this football club is not getting that at the moment."

[Archie's penalty]

Sunderland for me. Them not winning at Derby 10 days back was a massive result for us, they're yet to win away from home and that should have been an easy banker for them. I think history shows you can't rely solely on home form and the pressure is on for Keane.

You might be right, but current form is a big factor here, and on that count Newcastle Utd are even worse than Derby.

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/oform.html

Look where Sunderland and Wigan are on current form!!
My money's on the Magpies for the drop. The stats don't lie.

Ah, but only 12 days ago that would have shown the same for us. It doesn't take much to change things around.

Personally, I like the way Roy Keane appears to be getting closer to total paranoia on an almost daily basis -

Sunderland boss Roy Keane has admitted he feels "paranoid" about the way the club has been treated by referees in the Premier League this season. He told BBC Radio Newcastle: "Five major decisions have gone against us.

"We keep talking about fairness but the decisions certainly haven't gone our way. You're looking at six points lost.

"I spoke to Mike Riley after the Derby game but you get little satisfaction because the game has gone. You end up feeling paranoid about things."

He added: "Since I've been in the job I've been to see three referees. That's not bad going really considering the decisions that have gone against us," he said.

"I find it very hard to take some of the comments that come my way from referees and officials and generally the attitude to our football club has left me very disappointed.

"The attitude seems to be 'It's only Sunderland'. All we're asking for is fairness in the game and this football club is not getting that at the moment."

To be fair they have been quite unlucky recently. As Gavin Peacock said on MOTD2 they could have had four points more if decisions went for them in the last 2 matches alone. Not that I'm complaining!

[Dirk Gently]

To be fair they have been quite unlucky recently. As Gavin Peacock said on MOTD2 they could have had four points more if decisions went for them in the last 2 matches alone. Not that I'm complaining!

Agreed - and every other decsiosn that goes against them pushes Keano that little bit closer to the edge .....

[Gordons Cumming]

Bolton have the quality to stay up, and Newcastle have some easy home games coming up so should be safe.
HTH

[1871royals]

I reckon Bolton will go down.

I really want Sunderland to go down, I know so many Man U supporting fans who think that Keano is such a great manager. I think hes the most overated manager in Engalnd. Built a poor team whilst spending loads.

[Hoop Blah]

I don't get all the anti-Keane stuff on here.

As a manager I think he's done a pretty decent job at Sunderland and he's done it in a pretty well mannered way most of the time.

[knobby_1871]

Keane

He's a wild animal, a common street-thug and his type of irrational violent gutterborn trash has no place in civilized society.

Don't sit on the fence tell us what you really think

[M U R T Y]

Boro for me after I saw their run-in.

Would like to see Sunderland go down or Bolton tho...

[Man Friday]

couple of comments:
This stage of the season throws up funny results - can't go on "predictable results". Be interesting to see if we do beat Brum and Fulham, for example.
Unfortuantely, Newcastle have probably started their slump too early with enough time left to pull out of it.

[royals pete]

My pre-season backing was Derby Fulham and Middlesborough. Think first two should see me home but Middlesborough ?? Look at their next 4 games....they might just be going on a no confidence run !!!

[Man Friday]

Middlesbrough last night. See what I mean about unpredictable at this stage of the season?

[Nezhen]

I'm pretty sure that Birmingham will go down, but a lot will depend on how they do against NEwcastle and then how we play against them as they will be targeting those games as a potential points winner. Defensively they are vulnerable and they lose these I think that confidence will drain away. The Martin Taylor incident has affected the whole team by all accounts and they have too many winnable games where the pressure to win will be too much for them (e.g v Wigan and Fulham).

[brendywendy]

i dunno, brum sem to be playing some good stuff recently and scoring, and getting results
id be more worried as a newcastle or bolton fan with reading wigan and brum seeming to have upped their games

[Stranded]

i dunno, brum sem to be playing some good stuff recently and scoring, and getting results
id be more worried as a newcastle or bolton fan with reading wigan and brum seeming to have upped their games

Yeah but we were scoring very regularly pre-Xmas and still didn't stop us being nearer the bottom that top - for all their goals it's only 1 win in ten and dropped points at home to Derby & Fulham in that run as well as an abject 2-0 defeat at Sunderland.

They've played well and picked up points against the bigger sides this year but have struggled to beat anyone around them all season, esp at home. Could easily spell trouble if that continues against Newcastle and us in the next two games.

[brendywendy]

i dunno, brum sem to be playing some good stuff recently and scoring, and getting results
id be more worried as a newcastle or bolton fan with reading wigan and brum seeming to have upped their games

Yeah but we were scoring very regularly pre-Xmas and still didn't stop us being nearer the bottom that top - for all their goals it's only 1 win in ten and dropped points at home to Derby & Fulham in that run as well as an abject 2-0 defeat at Sunderland.

They've played well and picked up points against the bigger sides this year but have struggled to beat anyone around them all season, esp at home. Could easily spell trouble if that continues against Newcastle and us in the next two games.

draw vs n'castle, and heavy defeat to us would make my month

[Fezza]

Done the predictor and....

Wigan end on 30 points and go down (Newcastle get 32 and just miss the drop with Bolton). We are safe on 36 with Sunderland. Boro on 35 and Brum get 37.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Data updated and calculations redone upon conclusion of midweek play 12th March...

Average table points won to date by remaining opponents:
25 Bolton.....42.33
28 Wigan.....42.33
30 Boro.......42.22
27 Sunlun.....40.44
26 Brum......39.56
28 NUFC......37.78
20 Fulham....35.89
28 Reading...35.00

Average table position of remaining opponents:
25 Bolton......9.00
28 Wigan......9.56
30 Boro........9.67
26 Brum......10.33
27 Sunlun.....10.33
28 NUFC......11.33
20 Fulham....11.89
28 Reading...12.00

Data set does not include Bolton's match in hand away to Utd next Wednesday.

After Bolton play at Utd and Chelsea play Tottenham on the same day, all will have 8 games remaining, and the revised sample will be level.

[brendywendy]

Data updated and calculations redone upon conclusion of midweek play 12th March...

Average table points won to date by remaining opponents:
25 Bolton.....42.33
28 Wigan.....42.33
30 Boro.......42.22
27 Sunlun.....40.44
26 Brum......39.56
28 NUFC......37.78
20 Fulham....35.89
28 Reading...35.00

Average table position of remaining opponents:
25 Bolton......9.00
28 Wigan......9.56
30 Boro........9.67
26 Brum......10.33
27 Sunlun.....10.33
28 NUFC......11.33
20 Fulham....11.89
28 Reading...12.00

Data set does not include Bolton's match in hand away to Utd next Wednesday.

After Bolton play at Utd and Chelsea play Tottenham on the same day, all will have 8 games remaining, and the revised sample will be level.

uh oh

dont really get what the two tables mean

but dont they both indicate we are going down?

[Stranded]

They show the same thing.

Our remaining games are against teams that have gained less points on average that those our main rivals are facing (and hence are lower in the league).

It shows that, statistically at least, we have the easiest run-in so have a very good chance of staying up compared to say Bolton.