Snowballs statistics

[Schards#2]

It a messageboard and people can convey their opinion however they wish and if it bores people, they can just ignore it.

It would help with Snowballs stats to summarise at the start of the post what he's trying to demonstrate as sometimes just see a wall of fixtures and times without having a clue what point is being made. Also, when relying on stats so heavily, it's crucial they are accurate and time and again Snowball's sats have not stood up to close scrutiny.

Stats can be interesting and can make you think again about certain opinions but if the stats are telling you something different to what your eyes tell you, i'd go with the eyes.

[Mr Angry]

Statistics prove nothing; and relying on them is foolish.

I'll give an example - if a team scored 46 goals in the whole season, they would, statistically at least, be towards the bottom of the goal scoring charts BUT if those 46 goals had resulted in 46 1-0 wins, that makes a mockery of that statistic.

In other words, its about context.

A final thought - knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit; wisdom is knowing that you don't put tomatoes into a fruit salad.

[Dr Hfuhruhurr]

I am trying to decide whether to delete this thread or not......

But anyway, Snowball, you go ahead and post your statistics. I think most people are aware that mathematics and statistics aren't what decides a football match, or the quality of a player, however, they are a perfectly reasonable for a discussion, or to back up an opinion that you have.

As for those that who seem to have a problem with the stats, well, don't read them - although I suspect the reason you have a problem, is because his numbers contradict your opinion.... but hey, that's yet another discussion

The issue with Snowball's stats seem to be that the conclusion comes first, then come the stats. I.e. He uses stats to back up what he already thinks, rather than using stats to form his conclusions. Thats just a flagrant misuse of stats.

[The 17 Bus]

I am thinking of finding some stats to determine wether the title was better or worse before RY edited it.

[sheshnu]

Snowball is currently generating a lot of discussion about Reading, and it strikes me that the only people complaining about his threads are those who disagree with his opinions. Why not discuss them with him like a grown up rather than spending your time bitching about him?

I'd say he's contributed more to this board this year than all of his detractors combined (maybe that's the part they have a problem with...?)

[cmonurz]

Snowball is currently generating a lot of discussion about Reading, and it strikes me that the only people complaining about his threads are those who disagree with his opinions. Why not discuss them with him like a grown up rather than spending your time bitching about him?
I'd say he's contributed more to this board this year than all of his detractors combined (maybe that's the part they have a problem with...?)

I think if you read the posts, the vast majority of the bitching is coming from Snowball. I've been a moron, a half-wit, brain-dead, thick, stupid. He might have a point, but still.

[CMRoyal]

Snowball is currently generating a lot of discussion about Reading, and it strikes me that the only people complaining about his threads are those who disagree with his opinions. Why not discuss them with him like a grown up rather than spending your time bitching about him?

I agree he's a good thing, and his stats and opinions are welcome, but it strikes me that you can't have been following the all the threads he's been involved in. Discussion very often deteriorates when he starts waving his PhD certificates at people and calling them idiots.

[Snowball]

I played until I was 38. I've captained and coached (admittedly at a low level)

I've been watching soccer seriously for 50 years I'm a season-ticket holder. I have been mates with two non-league managers, both ex league pros. I just about EAT football.

Alan Ball won the World Cup, but when it came to anything other than actually playing the game, he was a footballing ignoramus. Arsene Wenger was a lanky footballing failure, but when it comes to theory and coaching: top notch. I'm not sure your CV gives you any right to think your use of statistics gives you any more weight than those who sling in the odd one-liner.

I didn't say it did. I was responding to the accusation that I was "only" statistically minded.

I'm not. I greatly admire Kebe DESPITE the statistics, as one example.

[Snowball]

Snowball is currently generating a lot of discussion about Reading, and it strikes me that the only people complaining about his threads are those who disagree with his opinions. Why not discuss them with him like a grown up rather than spending your time bitching about him?
I'd say he's contributed more to this board this year than all of his detractors combined (maybe that's the part they have a problem with...?)

I think if you read the posts, the vast majority of the bitching is coming from Snowball. I've been a moron, a half-wit, brain-dead, thick, stupid. He might have a point, but still.

I suggest the myopic and selective go back and see how the pattern developed.

I was attacked from Day One for DARING to suggest that Shane Long was being maligned.

The basic pattern was set then. I know consider cmonurz my personal stalker with IanRoyal in reserve.

I could post "It is sunny" and would be challenged in the middle of a heatwave

[CMRoyal]

I played until I was 38. I've captained and coached (admittedly at a low level)

I've been watching soccer seriously for 50 years I'm a season-ticket holder. I have been mates with two non-league managers, both ex league pros. I just about EAT football.

Alan Ball won the World Cup, but when it came to anything other than actually playing the game, he was a footballing ignoramus. Arsene Wenger was a lanky footballing failure, but when it comes to theory and coaching: top notch. I'm not sure your CV gives you any right to think your use of statistics gives you any more weight than those who sling in the odd one-liner.

I didn't say it did. I was responding to the accusation that I was "only" statistically minded.

I'm not. I greatly admire Kebe DESPITE the statistics, as one example.

Maybe it's just a weakness in me, but when I see people dropping their CVs into discussions when it's not really relevant, I assume the implication is that they are better qualified and therefore their opinion has more clout. That's just me and my undereducated chip, I guess.

[Snowball]

Statistics prove nothing; and relying on them is foolish.

I'll give an example - if a team scored 46 goals in the whole season, they would, statistically at least, be towards the bottom of the goal scoring charts BUT if those 46 goals had resulted in 46 1-0 wins, that makes a mockery of that statistic.

In other words, its about context. A final thought - knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit; wisdom is knowing that you don't put tomatoes into a fruit salad.

No, you are wrong. Goal-scoring is NOT a good predictor. It's goal SUPERIORITY that predicts.

So you've created a straw man to demolish.

Reading last night slipped from top to second in the best-defence table, and are second in the best attack table

But they are miles clear in the goal superiority table because Birmingham don't score enough and Wolves have a shit defence.

[Hoop Blah]

I have to admit that occassionally I find some of his findings interesting, but the majority are meaningless, poorly presented and quite often inaccurate.

Stats mean nothing on their own and it's how you use those to form or influence your decisions and thinking.

Snowball very rarely uses a stat in anyway that appears to me to be relevant and doesn't make any attempt to interpret them and put them into a footballing context. He very rarely uses them to give an actual opinion on what he see's or thinks and then he posts just become a long winded list of stats as opposed to anything worth reading.

He's certainly livened things up between games though, and if he's a wind up merchant as someone suggested, then fair play, he's put a lot of effort in just to get a rise on here!

[PlasticRoyale]

My only concern is that the stats are a bit amateurish. It seems that the sample is taken to fit the hypothesis, there is no attempt to actually test the outcomes and see what sort of relevance they have

As with most blokey arguments the original question often gets lost within a little bickering argument (often totally unrelated)

Nothing against Snowball by the way. I also like the attempt to quantify an argument rather than just relying on collective opinion.

[Snowball]

Maybe it's just a weakness in me, but when I see people dropping their CVs into discussions when it's not really relevant, I assume the implication is that they are better qualified and therefore their opinion has more clout. That's just me and my undereducated chip, I guess.

Look, if someone says "You don't understand statistics" you can either agree, or say, "OH YES I DO!" (and then they say "Oh no you don't." or you can make the point you have formal qualifications in statistics, worked for a market research bureau and taught stats for a while at Uni.



We can say (like some of the morons on here) Coppell is useless as a manager and we can argue back and forth


Or we can note that he won Manager of the Year two years on the trot, season before last and the season before that

[PlasticRoyale]

I think you're now famous, Snowball. A new rising star on the HNA boards. Gus will be sh!t!ng himself

[Hoop Blah]

Maybe it's just a weakness in me, but when I see people dropping their CVs into discussions when it's not really relevant, I assume the implication is that they are better qualified and therefore their opinion has more clout. That's just me and my undereducated chip, I guess.

Look, if someone says "You don't understand statistics" you can either agree, or say, "OH YES I DO!" (and then they say "Oh no you don't." or you can make the point you have formal qualifications in statistics, worked for a market research bureau and taught stats for a while at Uni.

Didn't you once say you were now a writer and had lots of time on your hands?

Within the geeky realms of HNA there are a lot of people who use and work with stats, if you're going to use them you so exhaustively you need to make sure they, and their application, stand up well to scrutiny.

...those who can do, those who can't teach!

[CMRoyal]

Maybe it's just a weakness in me, but when I see people dropping their CVs into discussions when it's not really relevant, I assume the implication is that they are better qualified and therefore their opinion has more clout. That's just me and my undereducated chip, I guess.

Look, if someone says "You don't understand statistics" you can either agree, or say, "OH YES I DO!" (and then they say "Oh no you don't." or you can make the point you have formal qualifications in statistics, worked for a market research bureau and taught stats for a while at Uni.

I disagree. This is an internet message board, and as such largely anonymous. Anyone can say they've got x, y or z degrees, jobs, girlfriends, whatever. If you can't communicate your credentials or knowledge through the medium of plain English, you might just as well say that you're the Queen of Sheba for all the good it will do. I'm sure you do have these qualifications, and I don't doubt that consequently this means that explaining your analyses involves a fair test of your patience. But nobody here is a moron, so if you are confronted with what you see as stupid comments, either explain yourself further or ignore the provocations. Insulting people doesn't help.

[Negative_Jeff]

Snowball, I notice the commencement of your blizzard of statistics coincided with your well publicised recent illness. I wish you a speedy recovery.

[Dr Hfuhruhurr]

Look, if someone says "You don't understand statistics" you can either agree, or say, "OH YES I DO!" (and then they say "Oh no you don't." or you can make the point you have formal qualifications in statistics, worked for a market research bureau and taught stats for a while at Uni.

Well the problem is that to us real statisticians, your statistics are sometimes embarassing. I get enough sarcasm about making stuff up, without someone claiming to be a statistician making stuff up with statistics in a public domain.

[cmonurz]

I think if you read the posts, the vast majority of the bitching is coming from Snowball. I've been a moron, a half-wit, brain-dead, thick, stupid. He might have a point, but still.

I suggest the myopic and selective go back and see how the pattern developed.

I think you should back that up. Evidence please of where I have resorted to personal insults?

Disagreeing with you is not insulting or offensive, it's just my opinion.