Perspective

[Bandini]

Good use of "Shame".

A nostalgic taunt which isn't employed enough these days.

[RobRoyal]

Let's leave "intelligence" out of this.

Here's a true story, though.

When I joined up in 1963, I wanted to join the RAF Regiment and be a dog-handler.

I was told I couldn't join the Regiment because I was too intelligent...

Too intelligent for the armed forces?

I don't believe it.

Or:

Too intelligent to be a dog-handler?

I don't believe it.

What was your point again?

[Ian Royal]

[Snowball]

Not so intelligent than you can get to grips with the basic use of statistics, however.

Shame.

I'll bow to your obvious expertise in the matter

[Snowball]

Let's leave "intelligence" out of this.

Here's a true story, though.

When I joined up in 1963, I wanted to join the RAF Regiment and be a dog-handler.

I was told I couldn't join the Regiment because I was too intelligent...

Too intelligent for the armed forces?

I don't believe it.

Or:

Too intelligent to be a dog-handler?

I don't believe it.

What was your point again?

It was "Too intelligent to be in the RAF Regiment."

[Platypuss]

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

[Snowball]

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Ah, I see, you mean the maths and stats beat gut instinct?

Thank You, Plotinus, for raising the issue I've been hammering for three years.

[Mr Angry]

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Ah, I see, you mean the maths and stats beat gut instinct?

Thank You, Plotinus, for raising the issue I've been hammering for three years.

This has nothing to do with stats and everything to do with probability.

The answer is "it no longer matters"; you could stick with door 1 as the probability that you have chosen correctly has improved from 33% to 50%, whilst the probability you have chosen incorrectly has decreased from 66% to 50%; however, you still have a 50/50 chance that you are right or wrong. Therefore, with additional data comes - ironically - a reduction in choice, and frankly, it is irrelevant whether you stick or twist, as your chance of success or failure is identical.

[ZacNaloen]

[Bacon Double Cheese]

I would open door 2 and expect to win the car.

[Royal Lady]

I would open door 2 and expect to win the car.

And I expect you could do with it, after "sportscarg8".

[Spudulika]

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

It depends on whether you want to win a car or a goat.

I'd prefer the car so would switch. You might prefer the goat so should stick.

[Bacon Double Cheese]

I would open door 2 and expect to win the car.

And I expect you could do with it, after "sportscarg8".

RIP in peace my sportscar

[Linden Jones' Tash]

not sure where to put this thought, but this seems a good a place as any. There's an interesting column in the Guardian today by the 'secret footballer' about Torres, player self confidence and ending on the old adage "form is temporary, class is permanent".

I'm interested in views on Shane in this context - snowball clearly had him pinned down as something special, I have to admit to being a doubter based on his first touch - but he's got a nose for goal and with his confidence as it currently I'm happy to eat humble pie.

I'm interested in whether people believe that this is a purple patch, or marks a step up in maturity of the player - and can he cut it at PL level?...

[Royal Lady]

Good points - I always only ever saw him as an "impact sub" and he seemed to be proving me right at the beginning of this season - but I think McD and Gibbs have to take a lot of credit - I think they've nurtured him, made him believe in himself and that self-belief has given him the confidence to develop as a player. The one thing you can't knock Shane for is his work rate - even when he wasn't scoring, he'd be everywhere chasing down balls and has a great knack of holding off other players, previously he was a bit lightweight in that area.

I'm happy to admit that he's proved me wrong - he's really blossomed and I think he'd relish the chance in the Prem, with or without us - he's a nice lad and deserves to do as well.

[Ian Royal]

not sure where to put this thought, but this seems a good a place as any. There's an interesting column in the Guardian today by the 'secret footballer' about Torres, player self confidence and ending on the old adage "form is temporary, class is permanent".

I'm interested in views on Shane in this context - snowball clearly had him pinned down as something special, I have to admit to being a doubter based on his first touch - but he's got a nose for goal and with his confidence as it currently I'm happy to eat humble pie.

I'm interested in whether people believe that this is a purple patch, or marks a step up in maturity of the player - and can he cut it at PL level?...

Step up. Long had potential, but wasn't realising it before... in my opinion because he hadn't got the first team games he needed under his belt in a loan early on. I wonder about how he'd react if he started next season with a barren patch...

But he seems to have kicked on, and whilst I wouldn't expect him to show form this good from now on, I can't see him dropping back to the poor player of a couple of years ago, or the poor goalscoring form of pre-December.

And that's from someone who didn't rate his game much at all, or like him.

[ZacNaloen]

I remember arguing with Hoop Blah months ago that I think that Long already has all the quality he needs and that no amount of extra training is going to improve him, as we had seen it in patches and that what is missing from his game is the confidence that would allow him to express it. And that without confidence even the best players will look bad.

Glad to see that the secret footballer agrees with me


http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog ... ndo-torres

[Hoop Blah]

I think it's a bit both. He's improved no end but at the same time I think his goalscoring run and general form will, over time, be seen as a purple patch (especially if he doesn't remain the penalty taker either here or wherever he ends up next.

Can he cut it in the Premier League? I think he'd do an ok job for a middle to lower half of the table side but he'll need to have some quality alongside him and not be expected to score a hat load of goals. His very good at forcing defenders to foul him or exploiting space between the centre half and fullback. In the Premier league you get a lot less of those kind of mistakes and his workrate alone won't earn him so many chances.

Just on the point of his workrate, I still stand by my opinion that at time pre-Christmas he was lazy. It was mainly tracking back after making a run to harass or challenge an opponent so not totally unsurprising, but many times he'd be walking and not staying inside when he really should've been. He does a lot less of this now (perhaps because we play two up and share the load) but at times it was infuriating.

[PlasticRoyale]

All this football and stat chat is all very well but i'm sure everybody would like to know you're maintaining your weekly average 'sex' quota

[Hoop Blah]

Zac, I remember it being more a chicken and egg conversation about confidence vs training.

I don't think I've ever maintained that the massive effects of confidence on a players ability exist, but in Longs case I have always said he lacked a bit of quality and instinct where and when he needed it. The way he plays I'd still maintain that to a large degree, although I'm not saying he hasn't improved a remarkable amount (as I think Ian Royal said, his goal on Tuesday night with a run across the defenders at the from post isn't a goal he'd have been close to scoring 6 months ago. Whether that's through confidence or work on the training ground I couldn't know for sure but I'd hazard a guess at hard work on making the right runs).