Goal Difference!

[Snowball]

In 2008 Bristol City finished 4th in the Championship 4th with a GD of +1. 11 teams had a better GD than them.

In the same league in the same year, Leicester finished 3rd from bottom and were relegated with a GD of -3. 10 teams had a worse GD than them.

#justsaying

This happens, of course it does, but go check out the Premiership right now

01 24 Man Utd
02 18 Man City
03 23 Arsenal
04 19 Chelsea
05 06 Tottenham
06 03 Sunderland
07 03 Bolton
08 02 Stoke
09 03 Newcastle
10 -5 Blackpool
11 -8 Blackburn
12 -2 Everton
13 -4 Liverpool
14 -12 West Brom (small anomaly)
15 -2 Fulham
16 -5 Birmingham
17 -15 Aston Villa
18 -15 Wigan
19 -14 Wolves
20 -19 West Ham

That's a correlation of about .9

[weybridgewanderer]

5 teams out of 20 are in the "correct" position?
Thats 25% accurate

1 01 24 Man Utd
2 03 23 Arsenal
3 04 19 Chelsea
4 02 18 Man City
5 05 06 Tottenham
6 06 03 Sunderland
7 07 03 Bolton
8 09 03 Newcastle
9 08 02 Stoke
10 12 -2 Everton
11 15 -2 Fulham
12 13 -4 Liverpool
13 16 -5 Birmingham
14 10 -5 Blackpool
15 11 -8 Blackburn
16 14 -12 West Brom
17 19 -14 Wolves
18 17 -15 Aston Villa
19 18 -15 Wigan
20 20 -19 West Ham

[leww_rfc]

In 2008 Bristol City finished 4th in the Championship 4th with a GD of +1. 11 teams had a better GD than them.

In the same league in the same year, Leicester finished 3rd from bottom and were relegated with a GD of -3. 10 teams had a worse GD than them.

#justsaying

Dirk are you a twitter man

[Snowball]

5 teams out of 20 are in the "correct" position?
Thats 25% accurate

1 01 24 Man Utd
2 03 23 Arsenal
3 04 19 Chelsea
4 02 18 Man City
5 05 06 Tottenham
6 06 03 Sunderland
7 07 03 Bolton
8 09 03 Newcastle
9 08 02 Stoke
10 12 -2 Everton
11 15 -2 Fulham
12 13 -4 Liverpool
13 16 -5 Birmingham
14 10 -5 Blackpool
15 11 -8 Blackburn
16 14 -12 West Brom
17 19 -14 Wolves
18 17 -15 Aston Villa
19 18 -15 Wigan
20 20 -19 West Ham

The correlation is -0.930582493, that is 93.05%

If you imagine that correlation has to say 6th best GD EXACTLY equals 6th position, you're wrong

[SLAMMED]

[weybridgewanderer]

The correlation is -0.930582493, that is 93.05%

If you imagine that correlation has to say 6th best GD EXACTLY equals 6th position, you're wrong

well, if a 93% correlation only gets 5 out of 20 correct, its really pretty useless no?

[Snowball]

The correlation is -0.930582493, that is 93.05%

If you imagine that correlation has to say 6th best GD EXACTLY equals 6th position, you're wrong

well, if a 93% correlation only gets 5 out of 20 correct, its really pretty useless no?

The general predictability is very strong.
Who says you have to get it ABSOLUTELY right?
Predicting third, say and a side comes 2-3-4 is not bad predicting

5 spot on
7 one position off
4 two positions off

Fulham 4 out, (this week), Ditto Blackburn, Birmingham 3 out (this week)

[SLAMMED]

Or we could look at points

20 teams out of 20 are in the "correct" position
Thats 100% accurate

1 Manchester United 45
2 Manchester City 2 45
3 Arsenal 43
4 Chelsea 38
5 Tottenham Hotspur 37
6 Sunderland 34
7 Bolton Wanderers 30
8 Stoke City 30
9 Newcastle United 29
10 Blackpool 28
11 Blackburn Rovers 28
12 Everton 26
13 Liverpool 26
14 West Bromwich Albion 25
15 Fulham 23
16 Birmingham City 23
17 Aston Villa 22
18 Wigan Athletic 22
19 Wolverhampton Wanderers 21
20 West Ham United 20

The correlation is 1, that is 100%


I would never have suspected that.

[Agent Balti]

Or we could look at points

20 teams out of 20 are in the "correct" position
Thats 100% accurate

1 Manchester United 45
2 Manchester City 2 45
3 Arsenal 43
4 Chelsea 38
5 Tottenham Hotspur 37
6 Sunderland 34
7 Bolton Wanderers 30
8 Stoke City 30
9 Newcastle United 29
10 Blackpool 28
11 Blackburn Rovers 28
12 Everton 26
13 Liverpool 26
14 West Bromwich Albion 25
15 Fulham 23
16 Birmingham City 23
17 Aston Villa 22
18 Wigan Athletic 22
19 Wolverhampton Wanderers 21
20 West Ham United 20

The correlation is 1, that is 100%


I would never have suspected that.

By jove, I think that may catch on!

[Snowball]

Pearls before swine

[Snowball]

Or we could look at points

20 teams out of 20 are in the "correct" position
Thats 100% accurate

1 Manchester United 45
2 Manchester City 2 45
3 Arsenal 43
4 Chelsea 38
5 Tottenham Hotspur 37
6 Sunderland 34
7 Bolton Wanderers 30
8 Stoke City 30
9 Newcastle United 29
10 Blackpool 28
11 Blackburn Rovers 28
12 Everton 26
13 Liverpool 26
14 West Bromwich Albion 25
15 Fulham 23
16 Birmingham City 23
17 Aston Villa 22
18 Wigan Athletic 22
19 Wolverhampton Wanderers 21
20 West Ham United 20

The correlation is 1, that is 100%

WRONG. The correlation is .9565 = 95.65%

If two sides are on the same points then the correlation is never perfect.

It's a no-brainer that points and position correlate strongly.

It's not so clear that by the end of the season GD is almost as good a predictor as final points tally - 91% v 95.6%

Even the average nobber knows the side with the most points (and a better GD if there's a tie) comes highest.

The point is, my dear, dear, people is that 90+% of the time a team with a much better GD
than its current position "ought to have" will move upwards as the season progresses if their
GD position is maintained.

[Mr Angry]

Snowball, serious question.....

...do you have Asperger's?

[Snowball]

Over the last ten seasons in the CCC the third-best GD predicted the finishing position within a single place
for 10/11 (91%) of the teams and was only 2 places out for the last club.

I said the correlation is 91%.

Correlation is not an absolute predictor. It doesn't even necessarily mean causality.
But check the finishing positions for the team with 3rd-best Goal Difference

2-2-2-2
3-3-3-3
4-4
5

That is an average of third place and checked over the last ten seasons.


4 x 3 (12), plus 4 x 2 (8) plus 2 x 4 (8) + 1 x 5 (5) total 33. Divide by 11 teams = 3rd.

People picking single instances of teams bucking the trend means NOTHING. Correlation is about trends and predictability. Even someone from HNA should understand that just occasionally teams have an odd set of results and buck a trend, or that one very bad defeat or huge win can distort things... but the generality. over the whole season is highly, highly predictable


If we finish the season with the 3rd best GD we'll finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th, probably 3rd.

If that GD is 23 or better (our current GD per game extrapolated) and we failed to make the play-offs we will be the first CCC team in recent history (at least a decade) to fail in this way.

[Snowball]

Snowball, serious question.....

...do you have Asperger's?

No, it's Nobberitis.


I'm happy to take as many bets for as much as you want to bet.

If, at the end of the season, our GD is 23+ and we are third-best GD (as we are now) we will make the play-offs.

Our current GD strongly suggests we are more than capable of finishing higher than seventh.

Please note for the 99th time, that I am NOT predicting a final position based on our current GD.

I am saying our current GD strongly suggests we should be comfortably in the play-off positions TODAY
and IF WE MAINTAIN OUR GD of .5 Goals per game we almost certainly WILL be in the playoffs with
a 91% chance of being 2nd, 3rd or 4th and a 99% chance of being in the top five.

If people wish to argue with me, fine, but please argue with exactly what I am saying, not what you carelessly make up.



What percentage of nobbers think we should have one at least one of those five consecutive draws?

H 1-1 Cardiff City
H 3-3 Norwich City
A 1-1 Watford
H 0-0 Leeds United
H 0-0 Coventry City

Had we W1 D4 we'd be equal points with 6th (had we beaten Watford we'd be sixth)
Had we W2 D3 we'd be in second.

So, as I say, I think we are very possibly in a falsely-low position.

[Mr Angry]

Snowball, serious question.....

...do you have Asperger's?

No, it's Nobberitis.


I'm happy to take as many bets for as much as you want to bet.

If, at the end of the season, our GD is 23+ and we are third-best GD (as we are now) we will make the play-offs.

Our current GD strongly suggests we are more than capable of finishing higher than seventh.

Please note for the 99th time, that I am NOT predicting a final position based on our current GD.

I am saying our current GD strongly suggests we should be comfortably in the play-off positions TODAY
and IF WE MAINTAIN OUR GD of .5 Goals per game we almost certainly WILL be in the playoffs with
a 91% chance of being 2nd, 3rd or 4th and a 99% chance of being in the top five.

If people wish to argue with me, fine, but please argue with exactly what I am saying, not what you carelessly make up.



What percentage of nobbers think we should have one at least one of those five consecutive draws?

H 1-1 Cardiff City
H 3-3 Norwich City
A 1-1 Watford
H 0-0 Leeds United
H 0-0 Coventry City

Had we W1 D4 we'd be equal points with 6th (had we beaten Watford we'd be sixth)
Had we W2 D3 we'd be in second.

So, as I say, I think we are very possibly in a falsely-low position.

So thats a no is it?

Incidentally, only one of the 5 games you highlighted I felt we should have won (Leeds) but I felt we should also have lost 2 (Norwich - unlucky sending off for them - and Cardiff). But so what? At the end of the day you are getting very worked up about something that is, bluntly, an irrelevance. There is no point in rationally arguing with someone like you Snowball, because you have an inherent inability to even consider any possibility of being in the slightest bit wrong (for example, your ridiculous assertion that Federici "saved" that chip).

Keep vomiting out the never-ending stats as doing so clearly gives you a degree of comfort.

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

If we maintain our points per game ration we should end up outside the play-offs, even if we maintain the GD, shirley?

[Snowball]

Incidentally, only one of the 5 games you highlighted I felt we should have won (Leeds) but I felt we should also have lost 2 (Norwich - unlucky sending off for them - and Cardiff). But so what? At the end of the day you are getting very worked up about something that is, bluntly, an irrelevance.

We should have LOST to Cardiff? How the oxf*rd do you work that one out?

[Snowball]

If we maintain our points per game ration we should end up outside the play-offs, even if we maintain the GD, shirley?

And I'm saying, if we continue to improve our GD by .5 of a goal per game
we will improve our points-per-game

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

If we maintain our points per game ration we should end up outside the play-offs, even if we maintain the GD, shirley?

And I'm saying, if we continue to improve our GD by .5 of a goal per game
we will improve our points-per-game

There you go again, saying we will, there is no reason why our points average per game should improve if the GD is same or very close, our GD is good because we are not losing by many goals, but are beating teams by 3 on a few occasions, so we are doing well defensively when we lose.

[weybridgewanderer]

I am saying our current GD strongly suggests we should be comfortably in the play-off positions TODAY
and IF WE MAINTAIN OUR GD of .5 Goals per game we almost certainly WILL be in the playoffs with
a 91% chance of being 2nd, 3rd or 4th and a 99% chance of being in the top five.

OK, how much you prepared to wager on 2nd 3rd or 4th (91% probabilty) and how much on top 5 (99% probability)?

I'd assume at these probabilities you would risk a lot of money?

Or are you not convinced we will maintain our current GD?