Perspective

[Snowball]

The odd game here and there?

Elwood is undefeated and we've lost just two in 16, to QPR and Swansea both 1-0

Our last 19 games are W8 D8 L3 32-21 30 points, and the three defeats were QPR twice and Swansea

We've won, I think, 4 of those league games Leigertwood has played in and, in case you haven't noticed, he hasn't been with us all season. The league is judged on a selection of games when you have a certain player available or when you've had a good run.

We weren't good enough for a lot of this season because we didn't have good enough players, good enough performances or good enough results to get us enough points so far.

We could go on a storming run from here on in and secure a play off place.

With Elwood Playing: The Undefeated Run Continues, and he scores again!

H 0-0 Leeds United
H 0-0 Coventry City
A 2-1 Derby County
H 4-1 Bristol City
A 1-1 Hull City
H 2-1 Burnley
H 1-0 WBA FA CUP
A 3-0 Doncaster
H 1-1 Hull City
A 2-1 Stevenage (Scored)
A 2-2 Cardiff (Scored)


Played ELEVEN Undefeated - W6 D5 18-8 GD 10

If these were all league games it would map to 23 points from 11 games = "2.09 points per game" = 96 point season

League games only P9 W4 D5 L0 15-7 GD=8 17 Points from 9 = 1.89 ppg extrapolating to 70 points excluding Norwich/Sheffield

Even if we do "only" manage W4 D5 every 9 games that is still 1.89 ppg (as above).

If we can win at Sheffield and get 1.89 ppg in the others (excluding Norwich) that's 73 points

I think it's highly significant that we had two defeats when Elwood DIDN'T play. He will be available for 15 games

If we average 2.09 ppg for those 15 games, that is 31 points taking us to 73+ Points PLUS anything we get from Norwich/Sheffield

Even if you discount the two cup games (which I think DO measure our overall playing ability) that would put us on 70 (plus anything we get from Norwich/Sheffield)


NATURALLY, there is a big "IF" here, that Elwood and the team maintain their Elwood-playing form, but surely you would agree that we are a better side with him playing, and barring injuries he will play to the end of the season now, and it is PERFECTLY reasonable to expect the team to play with something very close to the same ppg? In fact, now Swansea, Cardiff, QPR have all been played twice, it is perfectly reasonable to expect our ppg to RISE.

[Hoop Blah]

I totally agree we're a better side with Leigertwood in it. I've said for at least the best part of 2 years that we needed a physical edge in midfield and someone who could actually run a game by keeping things simple. Leigertwood is finally that player.

He's had an excellent impact on the team, the performances and the results.

I've no arguement with us picking up more points with him in the team than without.

My arguement is that you said "we WERE good enough" when our results (and in my eyes our performances) proved that we weren't. We may well be good enough with the 14 or 15 players we have available now but that's pretty much the opposite of what you'd posted.

[Snowball]

My point, Hoop is that pre-Elwood we more or less shot
ourselves in the foot, rather than all-round not having
the quality of personnel.

I really think we have had more than a normal share of cock-ups.

Just take out TWO, both by Feds and we are 4 points higher, Cardiff and Forest a point lower
we'd be 6th with the second-best GD.

That's what I mean by "we were good enough"... The players were and are good enough. The team has hardly every been outplayed. QPR (lost) Leicester (but we won), Hull away perhaps (1-1) and some say the 1-3 at Boro

[Hoop Blah]

I don't see how you can discount those results or individual errors. They are exactly the kind of things that mean we weren't good enough.

Federici makes individual mistakes, it's what makes him the keeper he is (there have been fewer of them this season thankfully). Long consistently misses chances as he did earlier in the season. That's what makes him the forward he is and contributed to our lack of wins pre-Christmas.

[weybridgewanderer]

I really think we have had more than a normal share of cock-ups.

Just take out TWO, both by Feds and we are 4 points higher, Cardiff and Forest a point lower
we'd be 6th with the second-best GD.

Every set of fans says "if only"

All the teams around us would say they would be better if only it hadn't been for a mistake, or a decision that should have gone their way that didn't or if only they scored that penalty ....

[Ian Royal]

individual errors over a couple of games can be considered an anomaly, but we are not good enough over the 29 games we've played, that's more than half a season and it very clearly isn't a couple of aberations. It's a consistent inability to win enough games. Which IMO is directly related to a failure score more than one goal in enough games.

You simply do not see sides go up or reach the play offs because of long unbeaten runs. You see them manage it because of wins. We don't win enough = we aren't good enough.

[Snowball]

OK, then list the goals we have been "gifted" this season by total errors by the opposition.

[Snowball]

individual errors over a couple of games can be considered an anomaly, but we are not good enough over the 29 games we've played, that's more than half a season and it very clearly isn't a couple of aberations. It's a consistent inability to win enough games. Which IMO is directly related to a failure score more than one goal in enough games.

You simply do not see sides go up or reach the play offs because of long unbeaten runs. You see them manage it because of wins. We don't win enough = we aren't good enough.

So if we DO make the play-offs, judged top six over the season
were we or were we not good enough in the first 29 games?

[Hoop Blah]

Over the course of the season we would obviously be good enough.

Good enough over the first 29 games, in comparison to everyone elses first 29 games? No, obviously not because we aren't in that top six after 29 games. You can't really dice it up like that because of the way the fixtures fall.

The one thing you couldn't say under those circumstance is that we WERE good enough but aren't now (or post that point when we improved our placing).

[under the tin]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kp1zrgeR ... re=related

[under the tin]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kp1zrgeR ... re=related

[Super Royals]

We had little right to expect anything from Cardiff, and a home draw v QPR was likely.

What matters is the block of games, and from the 7 games, we needed 11 points.

That hasn't changed. It's just got harder. Now we need ten points from 5 games

A 2-2 Cardiff
H 0-1 QPR

A Norwich
A Sheffield
H Watford
H Millwall
A Palace

So now we HAVE to win those two home games (and hurt two rivals), we have to win at Sheffield or Palace (or maybe both). That would be 13 points from 7 games. If we could do that and get something at Norwich, we'd be on 2+ ppg for this block of games.

I believe if we can avoid defeat at Norwich, we'll get at least 10 points from those 5 games, 11 from 7. Maybe more.

A Norwich D
A Sheffield W
H Watford W
H Millwall W
A Palace W

13 points, 55 points from 34 games, we would then need about 6 wins from our last 12 - easy!

[weybridgewanderer]

having not won 3 games on the bounce all season you now honestly believe we can win 4 on the bounce?

[Snowball]

having not won 3 games on the bounce all season you now honestly believe we can win 4 on the bounce?

Er, we HAVE won 3 on the bounce, and 4 in 5, seems like a long time ago, doesn't it? Way WAY back in January 2011

H W 2-1 Burnley
H W 1-0 WBA
A W 3-0 Doncaster
H D 1-1 Hull City
A W 2-1 Stevenage


This is where you say, "I meant League games..."

[weybridgewanderer]

ok, 3 league games on the bounce

remind me when last that happened?

[Ian Royal]

Derby 10 Mar 2010, Bristol 13 Mar 2010, QPR 16 Mar 2010.

Before that Barnsley 30 Jan 10, Doncaster 6 Feb 10, Plymouth 9 Feb 10.

Before that Blackpool 9, Norwich 13, Birmingham 20 Dec 2008

2009 really was a shockingly poor year.

[Super Royals]

having not won 3 games on the bounce all season you now honestly believe we can win 4 on the bounce?

Got to happen sooner or later

[brendywendy]

having not won 3 games on the bounce all season you now honestly believe we can win 4 on the bounce?

surely the odds say its only going to get more likely the longer we go without doing it...

[weybridgewanderer]

we may get to 3 on the bounce in the league

the post I referred to inidcated the poster believed we would win 4 on the bounce in the league

[Super Royals]

we may get to 3 on the bounce in the league

the post I referred to inidcated the poster believed we would win 4 on the bounce in the league

We will!
I'm always right