Who will go down?

[Dirk Gently]

Data updated and calculations redone upon conclusion of midweek play 12th March...

Average table points won to date by remaining opponents:
25 Bolton.....42.33
28 Wigan.....42.33
30 Boro.......42.22
27 Sunlun.....40.44
26 Brum......39.56
28 NUFC......37.78
20 Fulham....35.89
28 Reading...35.00

Average table position of remaining opponents:
25 Bolton......9.00
28 Wigan......9.56
30 Boro........9.67
26 Brum......10.33
27 Sunlun.....10.33
28 NUFC......11.33
20 Fulham....11.89
28 Reading...12.00

Data set does not include Bolton's match in hand away to Utd next Wednesday.

After Bolton play at Utd and Chelsea play Tottenham on the same day, all will have 8 games remaining, and the revised sample will be level.

uh oh

dont really get what the two tables mean

but dont they both indicate we are going down?

Quite the opposite - the average league position of the teams we have to play is lower than the teams anyone else has to play, and the average points those teams have got is fewer than the teams the others play.

Although it could be argued they've got fewer points because they've not played us twice, yet

[Archie's penalty]

Data updated and calculations redone upon conclusion of midweek play 12th March...

Average table points won to date by remaining opponents:
25 Bolton.....42.33
28 Wigan.....42.33
30 Boro.......42.22
27 Sunlun.....40.44
26 Brum......39.56
28 NUFC......37.78
20 Fulham....35.89
28 Reading...35.00

Average table position of remaining opponents:
25 Bolton......9.00
28 Wigan......9.56
30 Boro........9.67
26 Brum......10.33
27 Sunlun.....10.33
28 NUFC......11.33
20 Fulham....11.89
28 Reading...12.00

Data set does not include Bolton's match in hand away to Utd next Wednesday.

After Bolton play at Utd and Chelsea play Tottenham on the same day, all will have 8 games remaining, and the revised sample will be level.

uh oh

dont really get what the two tables mean

but dont they both indicate we are going down?

Quite the opposite - the average league position of the teams we have to play is lower than the teams anyone else has to play, and the average points those teams have got is fewer than the teams the others play.

Although it could be argued they've got fewer points because they've not played us twice, yet

That's what I was going to say!

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Heh, at least Bolton couldn't make that claim.

Anyway, shame on me I guess for not inverting the order, given that we're actually top of the table in my little "strength (or rather weakness) of remaining schedules" mini-LOLeague.

[East Stand Royal 500]

Quite the opposite - the average league position of the teams we have to play is lower than the teams anyone else has to play, and the average points those teams have got is fewer than the teams the others play.

Except that we have a tendency to play better against the better teams and screw up where it should be a walk in the park

[wolsey]

Quite the opposite - the average league position of the teams we have to play is lower than the teams anyone else has to play, and the average points those teams have got is fewer than the teams the others play.

Except that we have a tendency to play better against the better teams and screw up where it should be a walk in the park

But playing better doesn't always equate to getting more points (e.g Chelsea, United at home, Everton, City away vs Derby, Sunderland at home or Middlesboro away) - I don't have the stats but I'm sure we've got more points from the bottom 10 than we've got from the top 10

[RoyalChicagoFC]

From current top 10:
11 pts won (3 wins, 2 draws) from 16 games = 0.6875 ppg

From current bottom 10:
17 pts won (5 wins, 2 draws) from 13 games = 1.3077 ppg

[Stranded]

Quite the opposite - the average league position of the teams we have to play is lower than the teams anyone else has to play, and the average points those teams have got is fewer than the teams the others play.

Except that we have a tendency to play better against the better teams and screw up where it should be a walk in the park

But playing better doesn't always equate to getting more points (e.g Chelsea, United at home, Everton, City away vs Derby, Sunderland at home or Middlesboro away) - I don't have the stats but I'm sure we've got more points from the bottom 10 than we've got from the top 10

We have but perhaps more interesting is where we are against the top half/bottom half in form.

Against the top half, we are currently 13th with 11 points with the following teams below us:

11 Wigan P 15, 11pts

13 Reading P17, 11pts
14 Middlesboro P15, 9pts
15 Newcastle P16, 8pts
16 Fulham P16, 7pts
17 Bolton P14, 5pts
18 Birmingham P15, 4pts
19 Sunderland P15, 4pts
20 Derby P14, 2pts

Against the bottom half, we've got more points but the league is less pretty:

11 Sunderland P 14, 23pts

13 Birmingham P14, 22pts
14 Middlesboro P14, 21pts
15 Newcastle P13 20pts
16 Bolton P14 20pts
17 Reading P12 17pts
18 Wigan P14 17pts
19 Fulham P13, 13pts
20 Derby P12, 8pts

We do have "games in hand" v bottom half though so pick up wins in those and all will look rosy.

[PremAddict]

RC, do you also do strength of schedule stats for NCAA football as well?

[Royal Rother]

So, I assume we can all agree that all the combinations of results that would see us get relegated are so bloody unlikey we can all relax and start planning for next season.

Time to party!!

[RoyalChicagoFC]

So the lesson here is that stats are stats, but perspective is everything.

v. top half: 13th Reading P17, 11pts
v. bottom half: 17th Reading P12 17pts

Your RFC points-won numbers check out, but where do we get 17 games played v. current top half --three more to go, by my count (Liverpool, Blackburn, Arsenal) = 16 played to date

Six more v. current bottom half (Brum, Newcastle, Fulham, Wigan, Tottnum, Derby) = 13 played

[Gordons Cumming]

Can we rename this thread "Clutching at straws"?

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Just something to do between games, more like.

If I'd known beforehand anyone could find it bothersome, I'd've spent the time beating up a puppy instead.

[brendywendy]

Just something to do between games, more like.

If I'd known beforehand anyone could find it bothersome, I'd've spent the time beating up a puppy instead.

i liked it

once i worked out what it meant


made me feel slightly safer

keep up the good work

[Blue and White Toucan]

Bolton look likely now.

Desperately needed to beat Wigan before they commnce their run in. And with this lot to come:-

19/03: Man Utd (A)
22/03: Man City (H)
29/03: Arsenal (H)
05/04: Aston Villa (A)
12/04: West Ham (H)
19/04: Middlesbrough (A)
26/04: Tottenham (A)
03/05: Sunderland (H)
11/05: Chelsea (A)

Can't see many points there. Even with a 'suprise' win in there and maybe 3 draws thats only 6 points.

However why are we all certain that it will be Fulham.

Their run in is:-

Newcastle v Fulham
Derby v Fulham
Fulham v Sunderland
Reading v Fulham
Fulham v Liverpool
Man City v Fulham
Fulham v Birmingham
Portsmouth v Fulham

I can see possibly 3 wins and maybe a draw in there which is 10 points. Taking them up to 35.

However in a nutshell if we can get 3 more wins then I think we are safe. 4 would be definate.

[Huntley & Palmer]

Am I the only one that wants Birmingham to win tonight?

[Schards#2]

Am I the only one that wants Birmingham to win tonight?

It's a tough call, theoretically, Newcastle could be in tail spin that they don't get out of this season. Alternatively, if they get a win and some confidence, they have the players to comfortably avaoid the drop.

On balance, I don't see Birmingham as having the potential to score too many more points so i'm hoping for the Newcastle win followed by another against Fulham the following week.

[TFF]

I think maybe we can forget what I said about Boro

It's starting to look like Derby, Bolton and one other, Fulham with a breezy run-in even compared to ours.

[T.R.O.L.I.]

It's starting to look like Derby, Bolton and one other, Fulham with a breezy run-in even compared to ours.

I would love it if the "one other" was Sunderland - they haven't got the easiest of run-ins either:

Saturday, 22 March 2008 - Aston Villa v Sunderland, 15:00
Saturday, 29 March 2008 - Sunderland v West Ham, 15:00
Saturday, 05 April 2008 - Fulham v Sunderland, 15:00
Saturday, 12 April 2008 - Sunderland v Man City, 15:00
Saturday, 19 April 2008 - Newcastle v Sunderland, 15:00
Saturday, 26 April 2008 - Sunderland v Middlesbrough, 15:00
Saturday, 03 May 2008 - Bolton v Sunderland, 15:00
Sunday, 11 May 2008 - Sunderland v Arsenal, 15:00

[Tommy Youlden's Ears]

Am I the only one that wants Birmingham to win tonight?

Really tricky question; have been pondering it this morning. I do reckon that momentum is important. For that reason, it would be attractive for Brum to lose, and be feeling negative come Saturday, rather than on the start of a roll.

Equally, it could be argued that if Newcastle lose, then they really could fall apart. Keegan might even get booted and a real split in the ranks occur.

Maybe we should hope for a really crappy nil-nil draw - always good when a fixture generates 2 pts rather than 3, and neither side could really call that momentum. Perhaps a good fight early in the first half too. Several reds, exhaustion for the rest, and bans and recriminations to follow.

Great fun isn't it. Much better than mid-table mediocrity.

[Royal Rother]

Personally speaking I think we want to keep the teams below us, below us, so I just about favour a win for Newcastle. If we beat Brum at the weekend we'll then be 5 points clear of them and looking pretty safe. Very close call though and maybe a draw would be best.