CONFIMRED - The final countdown

[Snowflake Royal]

Is it really true that Rob Couhig plans to close or downgrade the academy or is this just some tenuous, self-feeding rumour with no substance?

I'm more than prepared to give him a chance (like him even) but would be very concerned by this direction of flow. Surely bringing on and selling a few academy players is the best way to man and fund lower league teams who won't be able to exist on turnstile fees alone?

On one level if Couhig manages to buy and save the club from extinction that will be great, but if he downgrades the Academy, I for one would be very disappointed. Surely his way to make money would be to run the club sustainably - free agents + Academy only and no very high wages. I think the club have proved this year that we don't need high price signings to obtain promotion to the Championship. If Couhig continues to fund the Academy and can establish us as a Championship club with lower running costs, I am sure he can sell on to a richer owner and make good money. But downgrading the Academy would in my opinion make the club far less attractive for any future owner and lower his future sale price. So I would say it is good business sense to retain Cat 1.

Totally agree - only time will tell, but (as has been said) beggars can't be choosers.

The thing is, money you put into the Academy now, doesn’t pay off until 5 to 10 years later.

And the players we attract to the Academy now, even if we maintain Cat One, won't be of the calibre we attracted 5 to 10 years ago.

The money going into the Academy right now isn’t going to make much difference to performances on the pitch next season, or the season after, maybe even the one after that, the crop of Academy players who can make that difference are already here and have a pathway.

The longer we're in L1 the lower calibre of player we'll attract into the Academy, and the lower calibre it will be outputting, but for the same cost.

[Stranded]

The biggest factor for me is that the catchment area we can attract from "if" we downgrade is made much smaller however, as it stands, any player in our catchment area would likely look at the number of academy graduates playing in the 1st team and will likely see the club as an excellent place to start their career.

Yes, we would lose some on the cheap (we are now anyway) but we would even as Cat 2 have a very decent cohort of players coming through and see a decent number hit the 1st team and be sold on for decent fees.

Would of course rather it didn't happen but I have zero control over it, so don't intend to lose any sleep over it esp. as it's all hypothetical at the moment.

[retro royal]

Maybe the Premier league/FA should fund the academies to a point, most are in premier league anyhow and only a few long established academies are in lower divisions, it's in both interest to produce the best players we can. If more teams want some of the cash then create promotion relegation. Some seasons you won't have a decent squad at a certain level, but if you keep Cat 1, you'll get back sooner or later.

[Royal Rother]

On one level if Couhig manages to buy and save the club from extinction that will be great, but if he downgrades the Academy, I for one would be very disappointed. Surely his way to make money would be to run the club sustainably - free agents + Academy only and no very high wages. I think the club have proved this year that we don't need high price signings to obtain promotion to the Championship. If Couhig continues to fund the Academy and can establish us as a Championship club with lower running costs, I am sure he can sell on to a richer owner and make good money. But downgrading the Academy would in my opinion make the club far less attractive for any future owner and lower his future sale price. So I would say it is good business sense to retain Cat 1.

Totally agree - only time will tell, but (as has been said) beggars can't be choosers.

The thing is, money you put into the Academy now, doesn’t pay off until 5 to 10 years later.

And the players we attract to the Academy now, even if we maintain Cat One, won't be of the calibre we attracted 5 to 10 years ago.

The money going into the Academy right now isn’t going to make much difference to performances on the pitch next season, or the season after, maybe even the one after that, the crop of Academy players who can make that difference are already here and have a pathway.

The longer we're in L1 the lower calibre of player we'll attract into the Academy, and the lower calibre it will be outputting, but for the same cost.

It's a fair point you make.

[andrew1957]

On one level if Couhig manages to buy and save the club from extinction that will be great, but if he downgrades the Academy, I for one would be very disappointed. Surely his way to make money would be to run the club sustainably - free agents + Academy only and no very high wages. I think the club have proved this year that we don't need high price signings to obtain promotion to the Championship. If Couhig continues to fund the Academy and can establish us as a Championship club with lower running costs, I am sure he can sell on to a richer owner and make good money. But downgrading the Academy would in my opinion make the club far less attractive for any future owner and lower his future sale price. So I would say it is good business sense to retain Cat 1.

Totally agree - only time will tell, but (as has been said) beggars can't be choosers.

The thing is, money you put into the Academy now, doesn’t pay off until 5 to 10 years later.

And the players we attract to the Academy now, even if we maintain Cat One, won't be of the calibre we attracted 5 to 10 years ago.

The money going into the Academy right now isn’t going to make much difference to performances on the pitch next season, or the season after, maybe even the one after that, the crop of Academy players who can make that difference are already here and have a pathway.

The longer we're in L1 the lower calibre of player we'll attract into the Academy, and the lower calibre it will be outputting, but for the same cost.

I am not sure this us the case. As well as picking up local lads our Academy status allows us to bring in players that other bigger clubs reject. For example both Olise and Wareham were let go by Chelsea and we turned them respectively into a superstar and a good L1 striker with potential. Elliott also from Chelsea and Craig came from Spurs. I am sure there are other examples. My point is that having Cat 1 allows us to pick up players that bigger clubs reject, who we can then train into better players. If we lose Cat 1 we are unlikely to attract players of that calibre. With proper ownership I genuinely believe Cat 1 can be a money maker.

[Hound]

I’ve seen this point a couple of times and am not sure what is meant

When you say ‘allows us’ to pick up other cat1 academy rejects, is there some sort of priority system where we get to choose, or are you just saying that being Cat1 gives us the status to attract the best free young players?

If it’s the latter then I think that’s fairly difficult to prove - and I’d think the fact we’ve shown a great pathway to first team is our biggest pull as well as location - being either Cat1 or 2 obviously makes a difference to how attractive we are, but isn’t the absolute game changer I don’t think

If we end up Cat2, stay at Bearwood and have that nice dome at Forest School, then I think we’ll be more than fine at this level

[tidus_mi2]

Considering our position as a small to medium sized club and currently at League One level, a downgrade to cat 2 would make a lot of sense if we want to be run sustainably, unless we have confidence we can maintain a constant production line of talent.

It's largely unheard of for a club to run a Cat 1 academy in League One, I think just ourselves and Derby did it?

[Royalwaster]

I’ve seen this point a couple of times and am not sure what is meant

When you say ‘allows us’ to pick up other cat1 academy rejects, is there some sort of priority system where we get to choose, or are you just saying that being Cat1 gives us the status to attract the best free young players?

If it’s the latter then I think that’s fairly difficult to prove - and I’d think the fact we’ve shown a great pathway to first team is our biggest pull as well as location - being either Cat1 or 2 obviously makes a difference to how attractive we are, but isn’t the absolute game changer I don’t think

If we end up Cat2, stay at Bearwood and have that nice dome at Forest School, then I think we’ll be more than fine at this level

Yes I think there's very little evidence that being Cat 1 makes us more likely to attract Cat 1 academy rejects. I think the key is to convince them, their agent, their parents that coming here is a great option for them ... as you say, our past track record of developing talent is likely to be very attractive to them. But you'd want to couple that with good facilities and very importantly excellent coaching staff.

[WestYorksRoyal]

I think this debate is often presented in absolute terms. I guess the question I don't know the answer to is the extent to which we could still produce 1st team players and generate transfer revenue as a Cat 2.

If you look at Olise, Chelsea released him, so perhaps we'd still be around to pick him up? And at the other end, it's not like being Cat 1 allowed us to retain Gittens. What does the difference actually mean in practice?

As with our culture of youth development and coaching experience, I back us to produce good footballers. It's the ability to recruit and retain the best talent that is key.

[Snowflake Royal]

Totally agree - only time will tell, but (as has been said) beggars can't be choosers.

The thing is, money you put into the Academy now, doesn’t pay off until 5 to 10 years later.

And the players we attract to the Academy now, even if we maintain Cat One, won't be of the calibre we attracted 5 to 10 years ago.

The money going into the Academy right now isn’t going to make much difference to performances on the pitch next season, or the season after, maybe even the one after that, the crop of Academy players who can make that difference are already here and have a pathway.

The longer we're in L1 the lower calibre of player we'll attract into the Academy, and the lower calibre it will be outputting, but for the same cost.

I am not sure this us the case. As well as picking up local lads our Academy status allows us to bring in players that other bigger clubs reject. For example both Olise and Wareham were let go by Chelsea and we turned them respectively into a superstar and a good L1 striker with potential. Elliott also from Chelsea and Craig came from Spurs. I am sure there are other examples. My point is that having Cat 1 allows us to pick up players that bigger clubs reject, who we can then train into better players. If we lose Cat 1 we are unlikely to attract players of that calibre. With proper ownership I genuinely believe Cat 1 can be a money maker.

Elliott spent no time in the Academy, it has nothing to do with him. Craig a little less clear, but basically the same. Olise would categorically not have come to a L1 club regardless of Cat One status or not... Wareham - don't know when he joined, so don’t know how valid an example he is.

[Snowflake Royal]

Considering our position as a small to medium sized club and currently at League One level, a downgrade to cat 2 would make a lot of sense if we want to be run sustainably, unless we have confidence we can maintain a constant production line of talent.

It's largely unheard of for a club to run a Cat 1 academy in League One, I think just ourselves and Derby did it?

Most clubs in the Champ don’t have Cat One I think...

Its simply not doable in L1 in the medium term, let alone long term, just short term.

[Dirk Gently]

I’ve seen this point a couple of times and am not sure what is meant

When you say ‘allows us’ to pick up other cat1 academy rejects, is there some sort of priority system where we get to choose, or are you just saying that being Cat1 gives us the status to attract the best free young players?

If it’s the latter then I think that’s fairly difficult to prove - and I’d think the fact we’ve shown a great pathway to first team is our biggest pull as well as location - being either Cat1 or 2 obviously makes a difference to how attractive we are, but isn’t the absolute game changer I don’t think

If we end up Cat2, stay at Bearwood and have that nice dome at Forest School, then I think we’ll be more than fine at this level

Yes I think there's very little evidence that being Cat 1 makes us more likely to attract Cat 1 academy rejects. I think the key is to convince them, their agent, their parents that coming here is a great option for them ... as you say, our past track record of developing talent is likely to be very attractive to them. But you'd want to couple that with good facilities and very importantly excellent coaching staff.

Their is a definite hierarchy that does favour Cat1 academies. I forget the exact details now, but in a piece I wrote about it when it came out I noted :

Fixed scale compensation packages for young players allows Category One academies to “Hoover up” promising youngsters safe in the knowledge that big bucks will only have to be paid out if players actually make it. This allows a level of speculation on the part of the buying club as there’s no chance an independent tribunal will compel them to pay huge compensatory packages to the selling club. Football League clubs who have previously depended on their academies to develop their teams and unearth the odd diamond might now be less inclined to do so if those players can be poached cheaply.

So there's a lot less financial risk in picking up players from other academies, and I don't think it's just those who are rejected - Cat 1 can sign Cat 2 kids under at annual contract review points even if the Cat2 wants to re-sign them, but not vice versa.

As you say, the key is convincing them to join - and the biggest single factor kids and their parents look for in an academy is that it offers a proven path to the first team. For all his faults, that's one thing Dai has gifted us - and why the number of academy graduates playing for the first team is trumpeted so loudly and frequently.

[JR]

The club will have to totally overhaul the squad whatever happens though, and aren’t we all very used to Championship relegation struggles now?

Anyway what’s the latest twitter nonsense on the take over happening yesterday, today, tomorrow, never?

If we’re taken over but stay down, I don’t expect huge changes to the squad tbh. Reckon most will sign back on

I think we'll tie down players who are OOC but we will need a LB, CB, maybe 2, a proper wide player and a goalscorer. We probably need a back up keeper as well as there seems to be little confidence in CBC.

I think we need to look at the medical side of things as well as we seem to get a stupid number if injuries and it's an area where I imagine there's been a few cutbacks.

Disagree on the medical side - for once we have been far outperforming m OSt of the league on injury stats.

[WestYorksRoyal]

Radio silence since last week's statement. Earnshaw reporting the club have effectively closed ranks and none of his sources are playing ball.

Hopefully means they're just getting on with closing the deal. Though it could just as easily mean they're preparing for awful news.

[Royals and Racers]

Considering our position as a small to medium sized club and currently at League One level, a downgrade to cat 2 would make a lot of sense if we want to be run sustainably, unless we have confidence we can maintain a constant production line of talent.

It's largely unheard of for a club to run a Cat 1 academy in League One, I think just ourselves and Derby did it?

Sunderland as well

[Elm Park Kid]

I heard from my source this morning that Couhig is confident that the deal is going through. They won't make it by the current deadline, but the EFL will move it in these circumstances.

[Stranded]

I heard from my source this morning that Couhig is confident that the deal is going through. They won't make it by the current deadline, but the EFL will move it in these circumstances.

I think everyone is anticipating one last deadline shift to 4th May - with the provisio that if it isn't sorted and we make the play-offs, then we will not be able to compete (unless there is a legally binding document confirming the deal is done but not fully signed/ratified).

[Snowflake Royal]

I heard from my source this morning that Couhig is confident that the deal is going through. They won't make it by the current deadline, but the EFL will move it in these circumstances.

I think everyone is anticipating one last deadline shift to 4th May - with the provisio that if it isn't sorted and we make the play-offs, then we will not be able to compete (unless there is a legally binding document confirming the deal is done but not fully signed/ratified).

With Couhig back on the scene I could see it being extended to after the POs, wouldn’t have said so with the unknown Platek still the prospective buyer

[WestYorksRoyal]

I heard from my source this morning that Couhig is confident that the deal is going through. They won't make it by the current deadline, but the EFL will move it in these circumstances.

I think everyone is anticipating one last deadline shift to 4th May - with the provisio that if it isn't sorted and we make the play-offs, then we will not be able to compete (unless there is a legally binding document confirming the deal is done but not fully signed/ratified).

With Couhig back on the scene I could see it being extended to after the POs, wouldn’t have said so with the unknown Platek still the prospective buyer

Not sure. Let's say we win the play offs and the deal falls through, what then? The runners up could go up but what an anti climatic way to do it instead of winning at Wembley.

Much easier just to give our spot to 7th and stay clear of any potential mess, especially when they have clear grounds to do this.

[Forbury Lion]

I watched the Couhig interview which was posted on here somewhere, He addressed the speculation about the academy and more or less said it has to pay for itself, Now he is a businessman so he'll be looking at a longer term payoff rather than breaking even every season but he did say the Michael Olise money isn't something they can bank on happening again.... That's my interpretation of what it said, If I'm wrong and you're reading this Mr Couhig, please don't sue me, especially considering I've spelt your name right.

All sounds pretty prudent and sensible to me, No point having an academy if it's costing us money and simply churning out players not good enough for our first team season after season and those players are not being sold at a high enough price to cover the running costs.

I think we are seeing a real benefit in League One because we are producing players capable of playing at League One level, I guess if we get promoted we won't see kids breaking through for a season or two (assuming we have more in the pipeline) because they would go out on loan to a League One or Two side first to get the experience we wouldn't be able to offer them. The kids who could have broken through at Championship level next season are the ones who were sold on when times were tough or are in the team now.