The Snowball stat thread

[Snowball]

We just edged Hull out of 6th but lost at home to them a few games ago.

As so many teams are involved I think its too early to call 6 pointers, its more a third of the games are together 30 pointers!

Brum away though... Definitely 6 pointer!

Definitely crazy-close. We could have drawn H & A with Hull and would now be 7 points clear of them. Madness!

[JC]

Good result with Blackpool drawing at home.

Had we played at Donny and won, we'd be third now

But if everybody won their games in hand we would be 5th

1 30 +17 59 West Ham
2 30 +22 55 Southampton
3 30 +21 53 Birmingham
4 30 +07 52 Hull City
5 30 +11 51 Reading
6 30 +12 50 Cardiff City
7 30 +12 49 Blackpool

(1-0 wins)


I could live with that, 5th, above Cardiff and Blackpool with 16 games to go

If everybody won their games in hand we would be 4th

[Snowball]

Minutes Goals

Starting

0,257 Start for 2 Goals = 0,128 Mins per Goal ... Roberts (for future reference)
1,407 Start for 4 Goals = 0,370 Mins per Goal ... Church
1,382 Start for 3 Goals = 0,461 Mins per Goal ... Le Fondre
1,499 Start for 3 Goals = 0,500 Mins per Goal ... Hunt
1,107 Start for 1 Goals = 1,107 Mins per Goal ... HRK
0,276 Start for 0 Goals = - - - Mins per Goal ... Manset


As Sub

161 Sub Minutes for 3 Goals = 054 Mins per Goal Le Fondre
170 Sub Minutes for 3 Goals = 057 Mins per Goal Manset
108 Sub Minutes for 2 Goals = 059 Mins per Goal Church
240 Sub Minutes for 2 Goals = 120 Mins per Goal HRK
171 Sub Minutes for 1 Goals = 171 Mins per Goal Hunt

[Snowball]

Previously the best pairing was Church-ALF

Only three games to date so hardly "statistically significant" yet
but the Roberts-Hunt pairing is getting a goal a game so far, top stuff.

Roberts Hunt W Bristol + Hunt Assist

Roberts Hunt W Coventry + Roberts Assist for Kebe Goal

Roberts Hunt W Derby + Hunt involved in build-up for his goal

[Snowball]

HOME Games v Contenders

Southampton have played all the big boys at home except Reading.
Meaning they must have a very good chance of picking up a lot of
home points. Perhaps their "bad-run" was more to do with tough games?

Blackpool SEVEN

Blackpool V West Ham
Blackpool V Hull
Blackpool V Leicester
Blackpool V Burnley
Blackpool V Leeds United
Blackpool V Brighton
Blackpool V Southampton

West Ham 5

West Ham V Middlesbrough
West Ham V Birmingham
West Ham V Hull
West Ham V Reading
West Ham V Brighton

Brighton 4

Brighton V Cardiff
Brighton V Middlesbrough
Brighton V Birmingham
Brighton V Reading

Cardiff 4

Cardiff V West Ham
Cardiff V Hull
Cardiff V Burnley
Cardiff V Leeds United

Middlesbro 4

Middlesbrough V Southampton
Middlesbrough V Leeds United
Middlesbrough V Reading
Middlesbrough V Cardiff


Birmingham 3

Birmingham V Cardiff
Birmingham V Middlesbrough
Birmingham V Reading

Burnley 3

Burnley V Birmingham
Burnley V West Ham
Burnley V Brighton

Hull 3

Hull V Leeds United
Hull V Southampton
Hull V Middlesbrough

Leeds 3

Leeds United V Southampton
Leeds United V Leicester
Leeds United V West Ham

Reading 3

Reading V Burnley
Reading V Blackpool
Reading V Leeds United


Leicester 2
Leicester V Burnley
Leicester V West Ham


Southampton 1
Southampton V Reading

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

Not sure Leicester are really contenders any more?

ANd if they are they still have to come to Reading.

[Snowball]

AWAY GAMES v the Big Teams

Blackpool have just one and seven home games to do their damage!!

1 Blackpool
2 Leicester
3 Cardiff
3 Hull
3 Birmingham
3 Brighton
4 Middlesborough
4 Southampton
4 Burnley
5 Reading
5 West Ham
5 Leeds


Reading 5
Brighton V Reading
West Ham V Reading
Middlesbrough V Reading
Birmingham V Reading
Southampton V Reading

Leeds 5
Blackpool V Leeds United
Cardiff V Leeds United
Middlesbrough V Leeds United
Hull V Leeds United
Reading V Leeds United

West Ham 5
Blackpool V West Ham
Cardiff V West Ham
Burnley V West Ham
Leeds United V West Ham
Leicester V West Ham


Middlesborough 4
West Ham V Middlesbrough
Brighton V Middlesbrough
Birmingham V Middlesbrough
Hull V Middlesbrough



Southampton 4
Blackpool V Southampton
Middlesbrough V Southampton
Hull V Southampton
Leeds United V Southampton

Burnley 4
Blackpool V Burnley
Cardiff V Burnley
Leicester V Burnley
Reading V Burnley


Cardiff 3
Brighton V Cardiff
Middlesbrough V Cardiff
Birmingham V Cardiff

Hull 3
Blackpool V Hull
West Ham V Hull
Cardiff V Hull

Brighton 3
Blackpool V Brighton
West Ham V Brighton
Burnley V Brighton

Birmingham 3
West Ham V Birmingham
Brighton V Birmingham
Burnley V Birmingham

Leicester 2
Blackpool V Leicester
Leeds United V Leicester


Blackpool 1
Reading V Blackpool

[Snowball]

TOTAL (HOME & AWAY) Games v Contenders

Although games against rivals are an opportunity to put the knife in
it's reasonable to expect fewer points per game on average

IMO it looks like closing right up and best bets for top two (odds-wise) right now are Southampton and Birmingham

West Ham have TEN of their last 16 against the biggies compared with Southampton's five games.

So not unreasonable to expect Saints to gain 5 points on West Ham by season's end
(but weighted against that is WHU's game in hand). If Saints have stabilised I expect
it to go to the last day, and it wouldn't surprise me to see four, even five clubs in with
a shout of top spot on the last day of the season

Saints have a real chance of finishing above West Ham as things now stand.

Reading have the second-worst run-in and are going to have to pull of 1-2 big results like a win at Saints, Bru, WHU.

Blackpool, tho' they have 8 tough games have 7 of them at home and could do a lot of damage (helping us)

Leicester have the easiest of all run-ins, and might just catch up to sixth place
with a good run despite looking right out of it (down 9 points) ATM.

Toughest Finish at the Top
10 Total 5 Home 5 Away West Ham
08 Total 3 Home 5 Away Reading
08 Total 3 Home 5 Away Leeds
08 Total 4 Home 4 Away Middlesborough
08 Total 7 Home 1 Away Blackpool
07 Total 4 Home 3 Away Cardiff
07 Total 4 Home 3 Away Brighton
07 Total 3 Home 4 Away Burnley
06 Total 3 Home 3 Away Birmingham
06 Total 3 Home 3 Away Hull
05 Total 1 Home 4 Away Southampton
04 Total 2 Home 2 Away Leicester

[Snowball]

Not sure Leicester are really contenders any more?

And if they are they still have to come to Reading.

Theoretically out of it, nine points down on 6th place but they only have four games against the bigger boys
compared to our 8 (5 away) and West Ham's 10. If they can string 3 wins together they'll be closing the gap
and they have quality so I wouldn't (quite) write them off yet.

Say the won at RFC tomorrow, they'd be 6 points behind with a much easier run-in.

[Extended-Phenotype]

Battering of defenders, Wearing down of defenders...it's a relatively easy stat to collect.

Are you going to tell us how? Or have you dug yourself a big smelly hole?

[Snowball]

Bookies have upped reading's expected points by 2 in a week.. Now the spread predicts 75

We're still a good bet to beat that IMO


and winners are predicted to get 85. second 82

[melonhead]

so we are going to win with 87?!




yeees

[Snowball]

Stats-Predicted Finish

Based on Current Points and form over last 24 Games

Personally I think West Ham will be under 84 Points, Saints better than 82 Points

I also expect Blackpool to place better than predicted (they have 7 home games versus their rivals)

I think if we lose at Saints they will definitely finish above us, and thus probably deny us automatic

IMO we need to win at Saints or Birmingham and draw at the other to have a sniff of the autos

01 86 Points . . GD 22 West Ham (A)
02 82 Points . . GD 22 Reading
==========================
03 81 Points . . GD 31 Southampton (A)
04 79 Points . . GD 32 Birmingham (A)
05 78 Points . . GD 21 Cardiff City
06 77 Points . . GD 21 Blackpool (H)
===========================
07 77 Points . . GD 12 Hull
08 74 Points . . GD 02 Middlesbrough (A)
09 71 Points . . GD 13 Burnley (H)
10 68 Points . . GD 05 Leeds United (H)

These predictions DON'T take into consideration the fact that 6-pointers can have a major effect.
They are just looking at overall points-winning

For example, Reading FC have a very decent chance of finishing above Southampton
(RFC averaging almost 2 points per game, Saints 1.64 and seemed to have picked up, BTW)
but defeat at Saints would elevate Saints by "1.36 points" and knocks RFC back by 1.96, a
big turn round of 3 points, resulting in:-

03 82 Points . . GD 32 Southampton
02 80 Points . . GD 21 Reading





and at the bottom...

20 47 Points Bristol City
21 46 Points Millwall
22 41 Points Doncaster Rovers
23 38 Points Forest
24 37 Points Coventry

Clubs at the bottom are on rotten ppg's. One surprise win dramatically alters perspective

[Snowball]

Please Note:

All the below don't take account of the big effects a 6-pointer might have

Stats-Predicted Table

Based on Current Points and Last 12 Games Form

Reading are averaging 2.25 ppg over the last 12 games (a 104 point season)

If they maintained this form for 16 more game they'd get another 36 points from 16 games.


1 - 87 Reading
2 - 84 West Ham
================

3 - 81 Blackpool
4 - 80 Birmingham
5 - 78 Hull
6 - 77 Cardiff
7 - 77 Burnley
8 - 76 Southampton




Saints form over 24 looks decent. Not so decent over the last twelve!!

[Snowball]

I thought I'd look at what "last 12 games" form predicted for the last 16 games last season


These are the finishing points for the top six.

Three (predictions with 15/16 games to go) were very close

Norwich was a bit off. Reading flew and forest blew

Diff-Actual-Predicted
-1 88 89 QPR
+4 84 80 Norwich
+1 80 79 Swansea
-2 80 82 Cardiff

+12 77 65 Reading Amazing last 12 game W9-D2-L1
+09 75 84 Forest "Blew Up"

[Snowball]

It's obvious from your stats that our strikers score more often when coming on from the bench.
I suggest starting with no strikers in future matches and then bringin them all on late on in the day.

MY, you're funny.

We play the first halves of games extremely tightly, and start to open up in the second half

That's why first half (starting) figures are a bit misleading

[Snowball]

ppg for various strike partnerships


3.00 ppg Hunt-Roberts
2.25 ppg Hunt-Church
2.00 ppg Church-Alf
1.88 ppg Hunt-Alf
1.00 pph Alf-Manset
0.00 ppg Hunt-HRK

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

I stil do not get why Leicester are there for some teams yet not others? Is it because you cannot edit? Also if Leicester are a team then surely the two below are in it still and should be in the lists?

[Snowball]

HOME Games v Contenders

Corrected

Southampton have played all the big boys at home except Reading.
Meaning they must have a very good chance of picking up a lot of
home points. Perhaps their "bad-run" was more to do with tough games?

Blackpool SEVEN

Blackpool V West Ham
Blackpool V Hull
Blackpool V Leicester
Blackpool V Burnley
Blackpool V Leeds United
Blackpool V Brighton
Blackpool V Southampton

West Ham 5

West Ham V Middlesbrough
West Ham V Birmingham
West Ham V Hull
West Ham V Reading
West Ham V Brighton

Brighton 4

Brighton V Cardiff
Brighton V Middlesbrough
Brighton V Birmingham
Brighton V Reading

Cardiff 4

Cardiff V West Ham
Cardiff V Hull
Cardiff V Burnley
Cardiff V Leeds United

Leicester 4
Leicester V Burnley
Leicester V West Ham
Leicester V Birmingham
Leicester v Hull

Middlesbro 4

Middlesbrough V Southampton
Middlesbrough V Leeds United
Middlesbrough V Reading
Middlesbrough V Cardiff


Birmingham 3

Birmingham V Cardiff
Birmingham V Middlesbrough
Birmingham V Reading

Burnley 3

Burnley V Birmingham
Burnley V West Ham
Burnley V Brighton

Hull 3

Hull V Leeds United
Hull V Southampton
Hull V Middlesbrough

Leeds 3

Leeds United V Southampton
Leeds United V Leicester
Leeds United V West Ham

Reading 4

Reading V Burnley
Reading V Blackpool
Reading V Leeds United
Reading V Leicester


Southampton 1
Southampton V Reading

[Snowball]

HOME Games v Contenders

Corrected

Southampton have played all the big boys at home except Reading.
Meaning they must have a very good chance of picking up a lot of
home points. Perhaps their "bad-run" was more to do with tough games?

Blackpool SEVEN

Blackpool V West Ham
Blackpool V Hull
Blackpool V Leicester
Blackpool V Burnley
Blackpool V Leeds United
Blackpool V Brighton
Blackpool V Southampton

West Ham 5

West Ham V Middlesbrough
West Ham V Birmingham
West Ham V Hull
West Ham V Reading
West Ham V Brighton

Brighton 4

Brighton V Cardiff
Brighton V Middlesbrough
Brighton V Birmingham
Brighton V Reading

Cardiff 4

Cardiff V West Ham
Cardiff V Hull
Cardiff V Burnley
Cardiff V Leeds United

Leicester 4
Leicester V Burnley
Leicester V West Ham
Leicester V Birmingham
Leicester v Hull

Middlesbro 4

Middlesbrough V Southampton
Middlesbrough V Leeds United
Middlesbrough V Reading
Middlesbrough V Cardiff


Birmingham 3

Birmingham V Cardiff
Birmingham V Middlesbrough
Birmingham V Reading

Burnley 3

Burnley V Birmingham
Burnley V West Ham
Burnley V Brighton

Hull 3

Hull V Leeds United
Hull V Southampton
Hull V Middlesbrough

Leeds 3

Leeds United V Southampton
Leeds United V Leicester
Leeds United V West Ham

Reading 4

Reading V Burnley
Reading V Blackpool
Reading V Leeds United
Reading V Leicester


Southampton 1
Southampton V Reading