Rival Watch

[Zip]

Cardiff and Boro are done. Swansea are now very much in a dog fight for the play offs. It’s now three from four for 4th to 6th.
Still feel we are the outsiders of the four teams and it’s out of our hands. However Swansea look shot and could do a Forest the way they are playing.

[Hound]

Interesting

Do very much see Swansea as the one to pick off - they are really struggling

Was partly why I was so annoyed when they got those dodgy pens etc a few weeks back - could see them having a crap run - those lucky couple of wins could well be the difference between them making the play offs or not

[NewCorkSeth]

Anyone else reckon the other 3 teams are all looking at us for the team most likely to drop out and finish 7th?

[Pepe the Horseman]

Anyone else reckon the other 3 teams are all looking at us for the team most likely to drop out and finish 7th?

Probably, as most of them have been saying it since the beginning of the season.

[NewCorkSeth]

Anyone else reckon the other 3 teams are all looking at us for the team most likely to drop out and finish 7th?

Probably, as most of them have been saying it since the beginning of the season.

I am chucking at The Second Tier podcast who have now predicted every member of the top 7, except for Barnsley, to drop out of the promotion race along with predicting Cardiff and Blackburn to be in it at several points this season.

They really covered all the bases so far.

[Stranded]

Anyone else reckon the other 3 teams are all looking at us for the team most likely to drop out and finish 7th?

Of course they are, and to be fair so are a lot of our fans.

Having a quick read of the Swansea forum, they have gone from do we need to sign a striker for the play-offs to fire Cooper and thinking they will be lucky to scrape in in the course of about 48 hours.

We are the most likely to miss out undoubtedly but that might actually play into our hands. Target for me is to be within 3 points of Swansea when they visit us on the 25th, as with GD as it currently is a 1-0 win would take them above us.

If we can scrap a win on Friday then, should Swansea lose one of their next 2, it is back in our hands. Even a draw followed by Swansea only getting a point puts it in our hands.

[Snowball]

Anyone else reckon the other 3 teams are all looking at us for the team most likely to drop out and finish 7th?

Right now my favourite for "relegation" (from the PO's) is Swansea

Their form has crashed, they have to go to Millwall
then Wednesday and also Reading and Watford

they could very easily lose all four of those

At the Madejski. If they lost that 2-0 tomorrow...

1 39 29 84 Norwich
2 40 30 79 Watford
3 38 26 69 Brentford
4 41 15 69 Reading
5 40 12 69 Swansea
6 40 08 68 Barnsley
7 39 22 65 Bournemouth

I think Reading can finish ABOVE 6th, even if they lose at Watford and Norwich
with Swansea and Bournemouth fighting for 6th

[Snowball]

Over the season, Reading have been in the top six for more days than Bournemouth?

[URZZZZ]

Thought I would have a quick look at the relative strength of run in's from Brentford down to see how the play-off challengers fair - this is strength based on form as we are now in silly season where teams suddenly become world beaters at the bottom or forget how to play football at the top.

Below looks at form and table position and compares the gap between them - our run in looks pretty good at the moment.

Brentford (form 10th)

Opponents current avg position - 12.375
Opponents form avg position - 13.12

Swansea (23rd)

Opponents current avg position - 13.57
Opponents form avg position - 8.2

Barnsley (5th)

Opponents current avg position - 14.5
Opponents form avg position - 13.66

Reading (9th)

Opponents current avg position - 7.66
Opponents form avg position - 13

Bournemouth (3rd)

Opponents current avg position - 12.28
Opponents form avg position - 8.5

So in short:

We have the hardest run in by current position by quite some margin, however, we also see a drop in 5 league positions in that rating when based on current form.

Barnsley's run is, on paper, a piece of piss, on both form and position.

Swansea have a decent run in on paper but on average their opponents are outperforming their league position by 5 positions and for Bournemouth by about 4 making them, currently, fairly tough.

Interesting post

Millwall could still play a big part in the top 6 race, having to play all of Bournemouth, Swansea and Brentford still. Their record against the top 7 sides is fairly strong, having only lost twice so far in 10 games against them

Even have a sniff of 6th themselves but given that run in (which also includes Watford) and given they probably need to win all 6, it’s very unlikely - started their little run too late

[Zip]

Anyone else reckon the other 3 teams are all looking at us for the team most likely to drop out and finish 7th?

Yes I think so. Bournemouth are now getting their act together. Barnsley are flying and Swansea still have a bit of a buffer. Plus we have tough games coming up.

[Zip]

Shame we play Watford next and not Swansea. The timing of fixtures is so important. I think we can get a draw at Watford but that might see us slip off the pace a bit.

[Stranded]

Shame we play Watford next and not Swansea. The timing of fixtures is so important. I think we can get a draw at Watford but that might see us slip off the pace a bit.

A draw is fine as long as Swansea only go draw/lose in their next 2.

[Snowball]

Anyone else reckon the other 3 teams are all looking at us for the team most likely to drop out and finish 7th?

Yes I think so. Bournemouth are now getting their act together. Barnsley are flying and Swansea still have a bit of a buffer. Plus we have tough games coming up.

If we pencil-in Reading 1-0 Swansea, they have no buffer

[Snowflake Royal]

Right now probably. In a week or two it could easily be Muff, Barnsley or Swansea.

[Stranded]

Anyone else reckon the other 3 teams are all looking at us for the team most likely to drop out and finish 7th?

Yes I think so. Bournemouth are now getting their act together. Barnsley are flying and Swansea still have a bit of a buffer. Plus we have tough games coming up.

If we pencil-in Reading 1-0 Swansea, they have no buffer

Depends on if you class an extra game as a buffer or not.

[Pepe the Horseman]

Given our horrendous record against Swansea, I think we're better off pencilling in a 0-0.

[Snowball]

Yes I think so. Bournemouth are now getting their act together. Barnsley are flying and Swansea still have a bit of a buffer. Plus we have tough games coming up.

If we pencil-in Reading 1-0 Swansea, they have no buffer

Depends on if you class an extra game as a buffer or not.

COUGH.

(Forgot about that)

Good point, but they're gonna lose at Millwall, Wednesday, Reading and Watford

and aren't guaranteed wins at home to Wycombe and QPR

[Mr Angry]

It has to be said; as stressful as it is trying to work out all the permutations, this is a lot better than lower mid table mediocrity, and nothing to play for with 7 or 8 games left to go!

[Zip]

Given our horrendous record against Swansea, I think we're better off pencilling in a 0-0.

That record has to improve at some stage. Just getting a little concerned that injuries are building up especially at the back.

[From Despair To Where?]

If we're within 3 points of Barnsley or Swansea going into the final day, I'd fancy our chances.