Magic Number

[The Cube]

RoyalChicagoFC attempted to introduce the concept of magic number to the board a few years ago. So let's have another try:

Your magic number compared to another club is the number of points required to guarantee to stay ahead of them by the end of the season (because it's "guarantee" goal difference doesn't come into it). That means either you gaining points, or them dropping points. The calculation is trivial, but I will spell it out for those board members whose mathematical ability is less developed than my own.

Example: Reading and West Ham.
West Ham currently have 75 points.
They have five games left.
The maximum points they can get in those five games is 15, so their overall maximum is 75+15=90.
So Reading need 90+1=91 to guarantee to stay ahead of them.
Reading currently have 79.
So Reading's magic number is 91-79=12

Clearly four wins guarantee that we finish ahead of West Ham (because 4x3=12), but it also works if we gain six points and West Ham drop six (2x3 + 2x3 = 12). So two wins for us and two defeats for them guarantees they can't catch us.

However for promotion we have to take into account other clubs as well. If Reading and West Ham both lost the next four games, then we would be guaranteed to finish ahead of them, but not necessarily guaranteed promotion because there are other clubs that could overtake us.

So the relevant set of magic numbers at the moment is:
West Ham - 12
Birmingham - 6
Blackpool - 3
Middlesbrough - 3
Cardiff - 1

For Brighton and all the clubs below Cardiff the magic number is 0 because they already cannot catch us.

TBM has already illustrated this on his "Promoted next weekend" thread:
http://hobnob.royals.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=112685
If we get six points in our next two, then all the magic numbers apart from West Ham drop to zero. If West Ham also lose their next two then so does our magic number with respect to them.

For Southampton our magic number is 16. With five games left, that means we would need to rely on them dropping points to guarantee finishing ahead of them. Of course, because we play them, we know that they will drop points if they don't beat us, so notionally we can reduce the magic number to 15.


I'm sure there's a good reason why the magic number concept has not caught on in the UK....

[SLAMMED]

Why did you even bother?

[The Cube]

Why did you even bother?

You'll see.

[MmmMonsterMunch]

I know the reason why it hasn't caught on...because most people can work it out! Given we are 4 clear of WHU it stands to reason that 4 wins guarantees promotion if only 5 games are left.

[seahawk10]

Good thread and I like this of course being a Yank familiar with baseball as this is used all the time near the end of a pennant chase.

I am hoping we wrap up auto promotion and the last few games are solely about winning the league.

[Gordons Cumming]

I think we'll lose the next 2 games.

What will the magic numbers be then? Bigger I imagine..............

[Platypuss]

Why did you even bother?

You'll see.

I think we'll lose the next 2 games.

What will the magic numbers be then? Bigger I imagine..............

Indeed we will.

[The Cube]

Update after Saturday's later games - Cardiff and Birmingham won, so no change. But Middlesbrough lost and dropped three points. Previously our magic number relative to them was 3, so it is now 0, which means they can no longer overtake us.

Our overall magic number for promotion remains at 12 and for the title is 15.

The magic numbers for the clubs that could still finish ahead of us are:
Southampton - 15
West Ham - 12
Birmingham - 6
Blackpool - 3
Cardiff - 1

[paultheroyal]

[Handsome Man]

RoyalChicagoFC attempted to introduce the concept of magic number to the board a few years ago. So let's have another try:

Your magic number compared to another club is the number of points required to guarantee to stay ahead of them by the end of the season (because it's "guarantee" goal difference doesn't come into it). That means either you gaining points, or them dropping points. The calculation is trivial, but I will spell it out for those board members whose mathematical ability is less developed than my own.

Example: Reading and West Ham.
West Ham currently have 75 points.
They have five games left.
The maximum points they can get in those five games is 15, so their overall maximum is 75+15=90.
So Reading need 90+1=91 to guarantee to stay ahead of them.
Reading currently have 79.
So Reading's magic number is 91-79=12

Clearly four wins guarantee that we finish ahead of West Ham (because 4x3=12), but it also works if we gain six points and West Ham drop six (2x3 + 2x3 = 12). So two wins for us and two defeats for them guarantees they can't catch us.

However for promotion we have to take into account other clubs as well. If Reading and West Ham both lost the next four games, then we would be guaranteed to finish ahead of them, but not necessarily guaranteed promotion because there are other clubs that could overtake us.

So the relevant set of magic numbers at the moment is:
West Ham - 12
Birmingham - 6
Blackpool - 3
Middlesbrough - 3
Cardiff - 1

For Brighton and all the clubs below Cardiff the magic number is 0 because they already cannot catch us.

TBM has already illustrated this on his "Promoted next weekend" thread:
http://hobnob.royals.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=112685
If we get six points in our next two, then all the magic numbers apart from West Ham drop to zero. If West Ham also lose their next two then so does our magic number with respect to them.

For Southampton our magic number is 16. With five games left, that means we would need to rely on them dropping points to guarantee finishing ahead of them. Of course, because we play them, we know that they will drop points if they don't beat us, so notionally we can reduce the magic number to 15.


I'm sure there's a good reason why the magic number concept has not caught on in the UK....

Because it is completely bleeding obvious?

[The Prisoner]

[super darren caskey]

Great album

[TBM]

Are we guaranteed a play off place now, then?

[Wimb]

Are we guaranteed a play off place now, then?

Yup

[sandman]

3 is our magic number as it has always been.

WNG

[Mid Sussex Royal]

This all falls down though as the top sides are all playing each other.

[Millsy]

At first I thought I'd write I'm not reading all that.

Then I remembered I am actually literate.

Now I like it.

Yes we can work it out but will you be updating magic numbers?

[The Prisoner]

This all falls down though as the top sides are all playing each other.

Yes and no cos they can all individually reach those targets, but can't all max out.

So basically it's a silly Yank idea coming from the country that contests its own World Series...

[SpaghettiHoop]

Positon now? Monday night

[Platypuss]

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