Bookies 2014-15

[strap]

My apologies if this has already been mentioned, however it's worth a second look.

I am struggling to believe what I am reading regarding our Championship chances as perceived by the bookies.

Just a couple of links :

http://news.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/football/championship/reading-horse-championship-handicap-race_206242.html

http://bwinbetting.com/leagues/championship/championship-countdown-promotion-picks,59386.html?

I'm no expert on odds and the betting industry generally, but am I missing something here? I appreciate these two are talking about "value" in the betting market, but surely no serious RFC fan believes we are for one moment going to challenge for automatic promotion this year? Just looking at the starting line-up and bench last Saturday, (and the horrendous injury list we ALREADY have), would suggest a mid-table finish is going to be a good effort this season?

I mean last year I was swept up with the "promise" of 7 signings, (of which only 3 really materialised), and laid a sizeable bet on going straight back up. This year, (and discounting the rumours of multiple signings imminent!), surely, we have far less chance of going up than last?!?!?

Of course, with me NOT putting a bet on this season, we will naturally walk the league and quite possibly challenge the 106 record whilst walking the league!!!!

And they say the bookies are never wrong!

Anyone putting their money where their mouth is and having a wager this season on us going up?

[Pepe the Horseman]

Do you mind posting up what they say, for those of us that can't access betting sites at work?

[P!ssed Off]

Yeah, was just about to post about the ladbrokes link.
Absolutely clueless!

[P!ssed Off]

Do you mind posting up what they say, for those of us that can't access betting sites at work?

http://news.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/footbal ... 06242.html


Why Reading are the horse to back in Championship handicap race
The Royals have a settled squad and are coming off the back of an encouraging season
Why Reading are the horse to back in Championship handicap race

So lopsided is the Premier League that Ladbrokes’ scale in the division’s handicap market ranges from scratch to 49 points.

That the Championships runs from Cardiff at scratch to Blackpool at +31 says everything about the league’s notoriously even nature.

Picking the right-weighted horse to prevail over 46 furlongs can therefore be quite challenging, especially as a winner could come from anywhere in the field.

Ever the Samaritans, the news.ladbrokes team are here to help though and have worked out that it’s Reading who should be counted on to prevail this season, thanks to being dealt a kind turn by the handicapper.

At 16/1 to win the league without a handicap, Reading are among the reasonably priced outsiders for the title.

In the handicap market, however, they’ve been given a +12 head start on the Bluebirds.

A seventh place finish last season was a credible return for a side recovering from relegation and forced to release some of their better players for cost purposes.

Now, having kept together the bulk of the squad that only lost three times from March 1 last season, a run at the league title has to be expected for the Royals.

Adam Le Fondre’s departure is an obvious blow, but a core of Royston Drenthe, Pavel Pogrebnyak, Danny Guthrie and Stephen Kelly highlights quality in the squad capable enough of challenging in the handicap market.

At 18/1 with a +12 handicap Reading are certainly on top of our punting shortlist, but alternatives lie in and around that bracket.

Wolves, who stormed League One last term, have been given 13 points, so too have Bournemouth who were among the form teams in the league as the season ran down, while Ipswich’s +14 handicap looks favourable while Mick McCarthy is at the helm.

[Pepe the Horseman]

Cheers.

[P!ssed Off]

http://bwinbetting.com/leagues/champion ... 59386.html?

Championship countdown: Reading and Wolves among three promotion picks
Given their stature, Wanderers must be considered good value, while few factions are as formidable as the Royals.
Championship countdown: Reading and Wolves among three promotion picks
The Championship sets sail this Friday when Cardiff, pumped full of Alka-Seltzer and Berocca to combat a Premier League relegation hangover, travel to Blackburn, but if the bwinbetting tipping minds are on the money, neither will be smashing through the ceiling of the second tier this season.

After identifying the likeliest lads in the battle to take the chequered flag, we’ve picked out the three value picks in the promotion mix, starting with a side who begin the season with the scent of champagne still clinging to their kits.

Wolves – 13/2 to be promoted in 2014/15

The back-to-back promotion bandwagon isn’t motoring on at the speed it was a few years back, but it’s not upturned in a ball of flames either.

Norwich skipped from League One to the Premier League in two seasons in 2010/11 and Southampton repeated the trick the next year.

Wolves are of a similar ilk to the pair; a sizeable franchise that used a spell bullying minnows on the third rung to generate confidence and surfed the waves of elation generated by their winning habit all the way into the Premier League.

A lack of significant investment may detract value from their price, but ruling them out is a dangerous move.

Reading – 5/1 to be promoted in 2014/15

Desperately unlucky to miss out on a play-off spot on the final day of the previous season, the Royals will be better prepared to prosper this season.

No side has won the second-tier title more times since its 2004 re-brand, while a squad that’s retained talented individuals such as Alex McCarthy, Jem Karacan and Sean Morrison must be in contention.

Amending their horrendous home form is crucial – they’ve won just one post-January match at the Madejski – but their promotion price remains loaded with value.

Ipswich – 8/1 to be promoted in 2014/15

With a manager as wily as Mick McCarthy at the helm, the Tractor Boys must be taken seriously in the promotion race.

Few were as formidable on their own patch as the East Anglian outfit last time around, while only four sides remaining in the division can boast a stronger defence from the previous campaign.

Reading to be promoted @ 5/1

[MouldyRoyal]

Does this meant for once we are over the radar?

[philM]

I got 13:2 for promotion on Skybet today. Seemed worth a punt.

Rush of blood to the head and I put £100 on.

[taipeiroyal]

Well I've stuck an each way bet on...but there again I have done every year outside the premiership!

[Pepe the Horseman]

Fcuking hell Phil.

[philM]

Fcuking hell Phil.

Well I transferred £50 in today to have a quick doodle of Roulette, got up to £150, cashed out my £50 and then casually threw the rest away on that bet so no loss and a possible £850 back

[The Rouge]

Fcuking hell Phil.

Well I transferred £50 in today to have a quick doodle of Roulette, got up to £150, cashed out my £50 and then casually threw the rest away on that bet so no loss and a possible £850 back

Its £750 back but whose counting..

[philM]

Fcuking hell Phil.

Well I transferred £50 in today to have a quick doodle of Roulette, got up to £150, cashed out my £50 and then casually threw the rest away on that bet so no loss and a possible £850 back

Its £750 back but whose counting..

Oh yeah. I said it was casual and yes I doubt anyone will ever be counting it.

[strap]

Yeah, was just about to post about the ladbrokes link.
Absolutely clueless!

Thanks for posting the articles.

[Nameless]

Some laughably poor research in those articles - really can't see Kelly and Royston as part of the core of the team !
How do people get employed if their knowledge is so scanty ?

[RG30]

Just for balance http://www.foxpunter.com/championship-outright-2014-15/

[Nameless]

Again I'm not entirely convinced that the analysis there has been done by anyone who actually knows what they are talking about.

[strap]

Just for balance http://www.foxpunter.com/championship-outright-2014-15/

Tell you what, 20/1 to go down or 16/1 to go up suggests we'll be mid-table. Which on balance is exactly where I think we will finish. I think I had suggested 14th/15th place finish would be a satisfactory achievement assuming our squad had no significant additions. Reckon I'll stand by that for the time being.

[Ian Royal]

Lets just remember for a second that these people naturally know less about Reading fans, and will have seen far fewer Reading matches than Reading fans (even me yawn). They're almost certainly not paid to be experts on Reading.

Now remember that Reading has an excellent Championship record. Has almost completed an ownership change to alleged Thai billionaires (they're probably not really). Has a manager with a superb promotion record. Has some eye catching names (for the novice) and only one high profile departure.

I'm not saying they're right, but it's not that surprising people are calling us as value outside bets? Especially after the way we did the division a few years ago despite not actually looking very good.

[10539.4 Miles Away]

Just for balance http://www.foxpunter.com/championship-outright-2014-15/

Tell you what, 20/1 to go down or 16/1 to go up suggests we'll be mid-table. Which on balance is exactly where I think we will finish. I think I had suggested 14th/15th place finish would be a satisfactory achievement assuming our squad had no significant additions. Reckon I'll stand by that for the time being.

Even money to finish in the bottom half seems a good bet as well (Bet Victor I think I saw it on)