Safety Points (Again - But New Slant)!

[Royalphil]

I know something similar has probably (definitely) been themed before but whilst I was looking at previous seasons’ Prem tables, just to see the trend for safety points, I spotted that West Ham(!) were relegated in 2003 with.... 42 points!!! It was an unusual year in that the second from bottom finishing team (West Brom) only got 26 points and I am sure we all remember Sunderland finishing bottom that year with 19.

My, rather laborious, point then is that this season we already have a bit of a gap from 19th-20th (Charlton 16 – Watford 12), so the current perceived safety of 40 might, just might, not be enough!!

Stats since the Prem was reduced to 20 teams (in 1995... and, yes, we will all remember the team that missed out on promotion that year... !!!!):

Highest Points relegated 42 (West Ham 2003)
Lowest Points relegated 33 (3 teams)
Average = 36.27

PS: interesting points 'run' in the Prem table this week 7th = 32 and 17th = 22 - with a single point between each position!

[kevan]

Can anyone do a countdown clock like the one we had for promotion?

[Chaney]

well over halfway through the season and west ham and charlton are not even halfway to 40 points yet, so in answer to your question 40 points will almost certainly be enough, but why should we worry?..we will get 50+

[papereyes]

I know something similar has probably (definitely) been themed before but whilst I was looking at previous seasons’ Prem tables, just to see the trend for safety points, I spotted that West Ham(!) were relegated in 2003 with.... 42 points!!! It was an unusual year in that the second from bottom finishing team (West Brom) only got 26 points and I am sure we all remember Sunderland finishing bottom that year with 19.

West Brom and Sunderland both really struggle => most other teams get at least 4 points off each => last team that goes down has about 4-6 points more than usual.

[Stooper]

interesting points 'run' in the Prem table this week 7th = 32 and 17th = 22 - with a single point between each position!

It's a conspiracy, and I bet Rupert Murdoch is behind this!

[Harps stay sharp]

Coppell's target for the end of 2006 was to reach 30 points, so he fell short by 3 points.

I reckon 40 points would be enough this season, but fear not, we will beat that total for sure.

[Chaney]

I know something similar has probably (definitely) been themed before but whilst I was looking at previous seasons’ Prem tables, just to see the trend for safety points, I spotted that West Ham(!) were relegated in 2003 with.... 42 points!!! It was an unusual year in that the second from bottom finishing team (West Brom) only got 26 points and I am sure we all remember Sunderland finishing bottom that year with 19.

My, rather laborious, point then is that this season we already have a bit of a gap from 19th-20th (Charlton 16 – Watford 12), so the current perceived safety of 40 might, just might, not be enough!!

Stats since the Prem was reduced to 20 teams (in 1995... and, yes, we will all remember the team that missed out on promotion that year... !!!!):

Highest Points relegated 42 (West Ham 2003)
Lowest Points relegated 33 (3 teams)
Average = 36.27

PS: interesting points 'run' in the Prem table this week 7th = 32 and 17th = 22 - with a single point between each position!

Palace went down on 49 points, but that was a 42 games season, do you think they would have got 9 points from 4 extra games being in their position at the bottom?..unlikely, so after 38 games it could have neen around 44 points for them that year

[papereyes]

And also or again, am I repeating myself?, both Leicester and Ipswich really struggled, so the number of points that the other teams would have got would have been somewhere aroudn 6 each from those two very poor sides.

45 in 42 also corresponds to about 41 points in 38 games.

[Royalphil]

Can anyone do a countdown clock like the one we had for promotion?

Ummm... for the very reason it is impossible to predict the safety 'finishing line', as discussed above already, it would be very difficult to produce a meaningful clock/spreadsheet... Too many variables I'm afraid... unless someone else knows better?

Then again I suppose it was just as difficult to do the promotion one??

[papereyes]

We need 37 points to make sure.

However, I'm sure that that number will fall with almost every week.

[Tony Le Mesmer]

I think the target to stay up largely depends on the perfomance of 2 teams now. Sheff U & W Ham.

Based on current points per game ratio, W Ham will only reach 31 & Sheff U will reach 39.

If there were more teams looking like relegation fodder you would be able to predict more easlily what the target would be. At the moment W Ham's form points to a record low total, but a turn around in their form along with Sheff U continuing to win their share of games points to 40+.

Just too early to predict at the moment.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Can anyone do a countdown clock like the one we had for promotion?

You know that I, for one, will be all over that one --but it's entirely too early to start it now. United at the top aren't even mathematically safe yet (the bar is now set at 67 and falling --or 66-plus-goal-difference-- and United have 54), and then there would be the matter of interpolating remaining fixtures and making deductions based on hypothetical results of relevant matchups...which I suppose could be done, but it'd be absurd at this point anyway.

Once we're down to 10 games left, it'll be time to take a close look at it and start breaking it all down (although I'll probably sneak a peek when we're down to the final dozen).

Back to the original point, this continues to shape up as a freak year, and the culprit is too many clear results/not enough draws. So many teams (Reading not least among them) keep going win-lose-win-lose-win-lose, which is inflating table points tallies and raising the bar. Target: 45 and safety by mid-April.

[Gordons Cumming]

I don't know what all the fuss is about.

We'll easily make 50 points so this discussion is irrelevant.

HTH

[Ian Royal]

Ok who has kidnapped Gordon and stolen his username. We want the old fart back God damnit!

[Gordons Cumming]

Ok who has kidnapped Gordon and stolen his username. We want the old fart back God damnit!

[Woodcote Royal]

Can anyone do a countdown clock like the one we had for promotion?

Ummm... for the very reason it is impossible to predict the safety 'finishing line', as discussed above already, it would be very difficult to produce a meaningful clock/spreadsheet... Too many variables I'm afraid... unless someone else knows better?

Then again I suppose it was just as difficult to do the promotion one??

Ummm, well, lets face it, if we could guarantee our safety now, several hundred Reading fans wouldn't get to "enjoy" next season having topped themselves once there was nothing left to worry about.

[Tony Le Mesmer]

Prices from the Current Season Points Market from Spread betting firm IG Index are:

Watford 28.5
Charlton 32
W Ham 38
S Utd 38.5
Wigan 40.75
Reading 49.5

Prob the best guide you will get at the moment.

[M4 Junction 11]

We can still finish 1st

[Royalphil]

Prices from the Current Season Points Market from Spread betting firm IG Index are:

Watford 28.5
Charlton 32
W Ham 38
S Utd 38.5
Wigan 40.75
Reading 49.5

Prob the best guide you will get at the moment.

Does that mean the prediction is that Reading will finish 6th last..?? Or, as I suspect, there are other teams between Wigan at 40.75 and Reading at 49.5.

[LUX]

agreed Tony, but Sky Sports had different odds, with Wigan and Sheff U lower odds than West Ham to go down (ie West Ham more likely to survive).