Who will go down?

[Dirk Gently]

Perhaps it's time to take stock of where everyone thinks we are after the last two results.

Assuming that Derby and Fulham are two of the teams to go down, who will be the third one?

These are the current positions :

12 Middlesbrough 28 -17 29
13 Wigan 29 -16 28
14 Reading 29 -21 28
15 Newcastle 29 -26 28
16 Sunderland 29 -21 27
17 Birmingham 28 -10 26
18 Bolton 28 -14 25

[Huntley & Palmer]

Sunderland or us

[Hatt-rick]

I think Bolton will go down having just seen the run of fixtures they have!

BOLTON'S REMAINING FIXTURES (Premier League)
16/03: Wigan (A)
19/03: Man Utd (A)
22/03: Man City (H)
29/03: Arsenal (H)
05/04: Aston Villa (A)
12/04: West Ham (H)
19/04: Middlesbrough (A)
26/04: Tottenham (A)
03/05: Sunderland (H)
11/05: Chelsea (A)

Can only really see them getting wins against Wigan, maybe Man City & Sunderland, other than that i reckon they'll struggle. Whereas, i feel we'll beat Wigan, Brum & Fulham at least. We'll be alright hopefully, but still require wholesale changes in the summer.

URZ

[Big Ern]

Us or Sunderland. Once Bolton are out the Uefa Cup they will regain their league form. McFadden will keep Brum up and Newcastle will probably get that ellusive wing against us ame move away from relegation. Wigan are too strong at home and Boro will be fine.

[AF1]

I voted Reading coz we have the worst fans

[Schards#2]

If Sunderland don't start getting points away from home then they will have to get enough from their five remaining home fixtures, two of which are against Chelsea & Arsenal.

I think it's between ourselves, Bolton and Sunderland and would be leaning towards Sunderland.

[Big Ern]

Sunderlands run in does look a bit tough.

Sunderland v Chelsea
Aston Villa v Sunderland
Sunderland v West Ham
Fulham v Sunderland
Sunderland v Man City
Newcastle v Sunderland
Sunderland v Middlesbrough
Bolton v Sunderland
Sunderland v Arsenal

[79Royal]

What makes everyone so sure Fulham are going down? They've got as many good players as we have and they are beginning to pick up points.

Personally, I think it's a five horse race for two places between us, Fulham, Bolton, Newcastle and Sunderland and I wouldn't be surprised if it were us and Sunderland that went down.

[howser]

Assuming that Derby and Fulham are already gone, my money is on either Bolton or Sunderland, both have horrible fixtures remaining, and both are struggling to score, I am pretty sure that now we have ended our bad run that we will have enough to stay up possibly comfortably as well.

[anR]

I would love it! Absolutely love it if...

[BonBoh]

I think we have a really important few fixtures where we can sort out our Premiership status.
We must beat Birmingham and Blackburn at home. Then we play Newcastle away and Fulham at home. Four, or even 6 points from those two fixtures would be excellent. If we win those four games - a big IF! - then we'd have our 40 points.
If we don't, then we must look at salvaging at least a point from our away games at Newcastle, Wigan and Derby. That way we are not losing ground to our direct rivals. The three draws scenario would also see us reach 40 points. The outcome of the games vs Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal should, therefore, become irrelevant.

The psychology at this part of the season plays a massive part. We have now won two consecutive games without conceding. Our previous 8 consecutive defeats are now a thing of the past. In comparison, Sunderland, Bolton, and especially Newcastle must be getting VERY worried.
I think Newcastle might be the surprise relegation candidates here. They were 10th when we were 13th before going on our 8 game losing run. Now we are above them with a superior goal difference. They have only drawn 1 game in that time and have also lost by quite heavy margins. They are also finding it extremely difficult to score. Their confidence must be absolutely shattered.

[Dirk Gently]

Plus the weight of expectation from the Toon crowd - and the pressure on the players - must be so much greater than for any other of the relagation candidates.

I'd disagree about the 40 points though - I'm still convinced that 36 point will be enough to keep any team up this season.

As an illustration of this, Bolton have averaged just 0.89 points a game from 25 games - it'll take a massive improvement in form to get 15 points from 10 games. And whilst of course they can do it, there are half a dozen other teams who'd have to do the same for them all to get close to 40 points - I just can't see that happening.

[Stranded]

What makes everyone so sure Fulham are going down? They've got as many good players as we have and they are beginning to pick up points.
Personally, I think it's a five horse race for two places between us, Fulham, Bolton, Newcastle and Sunderland and I wouldn't be surprised if it were us and Sunderland that went down.

Apart from they're not, Saturday was the only point they've taken in four games, and they've only managed 5 since the turn of the year (ok we've only got 6 but we were in a healthier position prior to our run, they were already in trouble) - and they are 6 points from safety with Brum having a game in hand.

It will take at least 5 wins from 9 for them to stay up, they've only managed 3 wins all season so that will be some hell of a turnaround.

For me, it's the current bottom 3 that will go. With Newcastle just about turning it around. I can only see Bolton getting to 33 points with their run-in, so another 2 wins by us and we'll be OK.

[East Stand Royal 500]

I think we have a really important few fixtures where we can sort out our Premiership status.
We must beat Birmingham and Blackburn at home. Then we play Newcastle away and Fulham at home. Four, or even 6 points from those would be excellent. If we win those four games - a big IF! - then we'd have our 40 points.
If we don't, then we must look at salvaging at least a point from our away games at Newcastle, Wigan and Derby. That way we are not losing ground to our direct rivals. The three draws scenario would also see us reach 40 points. The outcome of the games vs Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal should, therefore, become irrelevant.

The psychology at this part of the season plays a massive part. We have now won two consecutive games without conceding. Our previous 8 consecutive defeats are now a thing of the past. In comparison, Sunderland, Bolton, and especially Newcastle must be getting VERY worried.
I think Newcastle might be the surprise relegation candidates here. They were 10th when we were 13th before going on our 8 game losing run. Now we are above them with a superior goal difference. They have only drawn 1 game in that time and have also lost by quite heavy margins. They are also finding it extremely difficult to score. Their confidence must be absolutely shattered.

I'm more certain that we will stay up than that we will get the magic 40 points. Latest Football365 stats has 34 points as safety based on season form and 30 on recent form. Reading are safe on both predictions. Derby and Fulham go down on both tables. Bolton will be the third club on season form but Newcastle joins them on recent form ending on less than 30 points. I accept these are based on past form and do not take account of difficulty of remaining fixtures. I am convinced that Newcastle will pick up a few more points than recent form suggests but I believe KK will have a very nervous few weeks before they reach safety on 35. With our remaining fixtures there is no reason why we should pick up less than a point a game, our season form.

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/runin.html

[Gordons Cumming]

I think Bolton are too good to go down.

[BonBoh]

I would like Fulham to beat Newcastle in a couple of weeks time.
If we can beat Fulham at the MadStad they shouldn't pose a threat to us but they could do us a massive favour by seriously damaging Newcastle's morale by beating them.
Can we all become Fulham fans just for that one game?

[3 veesinarow]

I've done this the wrong way round - I voted Birmingham to go down, then looked at the fixtures left and made my own predictions... I have Sunderland finishing on 33 and Bolton on 34, so 35 looks to be "safe" to me.
Even with pessimistic predictions of nothing from Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs, I still have us at 39 with just two wins over Birmingham and Fulham and draws with Blackburn, Newcastle, Wigan, Spurs and Derby although a win from one of those would render the Derby game irrelevant...I hope.

[Hatt-rick]

I think Bolton are too good to go down.

I thought West Ham & Leeds were to go to go down....

Newcastle are too good to go down, but still could.

[Hoop Blah]

I can't make up my mind who I think we be the third club to go down.

I think Bolton are most likely but I would be very worried if I were a Newcastle fan as they just seem in the biggest rut now and they have to play a lot of the sides in and around them. That can work in your favour if you get the results, but if things go against you it's so much worse.

Everyone up to 'Boro is still right in the mixer and so much can change with just a couple of results that it's impossible to do anything but guess at the moment really.

[sucatraps]

Anybody sensing a feeling of de ja vue? Bolton and Reading in relegation dogfight (yes, with 5 or 6 others, if you drive yourself bonkers with all the possible permutations) but imagine now sweet it would be to stay up regardless of who goes down, but if it were Bolton.....