89 Points?

[Snowball]

32 11 3 2 35 17 8 3 5 29 25 +22 63 Wolves
31 12 3 1 37 08 5 5 5 21 18 +32 59 Reading
31 10 3 3 21 13 6 6 3 17 15 +10 57 Birmingham
29 09 3 2 23 11 4 9 2 18 15 +15 51 Cardiff
32 07 4 5 22 16 7 5 4 21 13 +14 51 Sheffield United
32 11 2 3 24 14 3 6 7 19 25 +04 50 Preston
31 07 8 1 31 15 4 7 4 15 18 +13 48 Swansea
31 05 8 3 22 19 7 3 5 18 17 +04 47 Bristol
31 9 4 2 21 12 3 7 6 12 17 +40 47 QPR
31 8 4 3 23 16 5 4 7 21 28 +00 47 Burnley

In our last 13 we have picked up 26 points playing

2nd Away 3-1 Birmingham
4th Away 2-2 Cardiff (with ten men)
7th Away 0-2 Swansea

1st Home 1-0 Wolves
4th Home 1-1 Cardiff
6th Home 0-0 Preston
9th Away 0-0 QPR

So against the top clubs and one side that is playing incredibly

P7 W2 D4 L1 7-6

10 points from 7 games

and against weaker sides

4-0 Watford (H)
3-1 Coventry (H)
1-0 Barnsley (A)
1-0 Blackpool (H)
2-0 Norwich (H)
1-1 Southampton (A)

P6 W5 D1 12-2

overall

P13 W7 D5 L1 19-8 26 points from 13 = 2 points a game, a 92 point season
a points total that has been sufficient to go up automatically every single season


We have easier clubs to come, only two home games against sides in the top half

There is no logical reason to think we won't average 2 points a game until the end of the season giving us 89 Points

To pass us would need 33 points from 15 games (90) = 2.20 points a game = 101 point 46 game season Birmingham
To pass us would need 39 points from 17 games (90) = 2.29 points a game = 105 point 46 game season CARDIFF
To pass us would need 38 points from 14 games (90) = 2.71 points a game = 125 point 46 game season Sheffield United
To pass us would need 42 points from 15 games (90) = 2.80 points a game = 129 point 46 game season SWANSEA

NONE of these sides have a real chance of catching us, if all we do is emulate what we have managed for the last thirteen games


What happens if we only average 1.5+ points a game for 15 games? = 23 points, total 82?

To pass us would need 26 points from 15 games (83) = 1.73 points a game = 080 point 46 game season Birmingham
To pass us would need 32 points from 17 games (83) = 1.88 points a game = 087 point 46 game season CARDIFF
To pass us would need 31 points from 14 games (83) = 2.21 points a game = 102 point 46 game season Sheffield United
To pass us would need 35 points from 15 games (83) = 2.33 points a game = 107 point 46 game season SWANSEA


So basically, form here on in, if we average 2 points a game, we are home and dry.

If we only manage 1.5 points a game from here on in, Swansea and Sheffield would have to break records to catch us.

If we can manage 1.8 points per game (+27) and total 86

To pass us would need 30 points from 15 games (87) = 2.00 points a game = 092 point 46 game season Birmingham
To pass us would need 36 points from 17 games (83) = 2.20 points a game = 101 point 46 game season CARDIFF

86 points will probably be enough for second place, 87 would mean either Birmingham have to show
championship form for the rest of the season or Cardiff would need to play as well as Reading's 106 year
or Swansea would need just about the greatest run in history


Swansea's current run is W5 D9 = 24 from 14 WORSE than Reading's last 13
Since they started winning it's 16/18 = 2.66 per game
If they maintain that incredible 2.66 for 15 matches = 40 points = 88 total

[Half Man Half Biscuit]

32 11 3 2 35 17 8 3 5 29 25 +22 63 Wolves
31 12 3 1 37 08 5 5 5 21 18 +32 59 Reading
31 10 3 3 21 13 6 6 3 17 15 +10 57 Birmingham
29 09 3 2 23 11 4 9 2 18 15 +15 51 Cardiff
32 07 4 5 22 16 7 5 4 21 13 +14 51 Sheffield United
32 11 2 3 24 14 3 6 7 19 25 +04 50 Preston
31 07 8 1 31 15 4 7 4 15 18 +13 48 Swansea
31 05 8 3 22 19 7 3 5 18 17 +04 47 Bristol
31 9 4 2 21 12 3 7 6 12 17 +40 47 QPR
31 8 4 3 23 16 5 4 7 21 28 +00 47 Burnley

In our last 13 we have picked up 26 points playing

2nd Away 3-1 Birmingham
4th Away 2-2 Cardiff (with ten men)
7th Away 0-2 Swansea

1st Home 1-0 Wolves
4th Home 1-1 Cardiff
6th Home 0-0 Preston
9th Away 0-0 QPR

So against the top clubs and one side that is playing incredibly

P7 W2 D4 L1 7-6

10 points from 7 games

and against weaker sides

4-0 Watford (H)
3-1 Coventry (H)
1-0 Barnsley (A)
1-0 Blackpool (H)
2-0 Norwich (H)
1-1 Southampton (A)

P6 W5 D1 12-2

overall

P13 W7 D5 L1 19-8 26 points from 13 = 2 points a game, a 92 point season
a points total that has been sufficient to go up automatically every single season


We have easier clubs to come, only two home games against sides in the top half

There is no logical reason to think we won't average 2 points a game until the end of the season giving us 89 Points

To pass us would need 33 points from 15 games (90) = 2.20 points a game = 101 point 46 game season Birmingham
To pass us would need 39 points from 17 games (90) = 2.29 points a game = 105 point 46 game season CARDIFF
To pass us would need 38 points from 14 games (90) = 2.71 points a game = 125 point 46 game season Sheffield United
To pass us would need 42 points from 15 games (90) = 2.80 points a game = 129 point 46 game season SWANSEA

NONE of these sides have a real chance of catching us, if all we do is emulate what we have managed for the last thirteen games


What happens if we only average 1.5+ points a game for 15 games? = 23 points, total 82?

To pass us would need 26 points from 15 games (83) = 1.73 points a game = 080 point 46 game season Birmingham
To pass us would need 32 points from 17 games (83) = 1.88 points a game = 087 point 46 game season CARDIFF
To pass us would need 31 points from 14 games (83) = 2.21 points a game = 102 point 46 game season Sheffield United
To pass us would need 35 points from 15 games (83) = 2.33 points a game = 107 point 46 game season SWANSEA


So basically, form here on in, if we average 2 points a game, we are home and dry.

If we only manage 1.5 points a game from here on in, Swansea and Sheffield would have to break records to catch us.

If we can manage 1.8 points per game (+27) and total 86

To pass us would need 30 points from 15 games (87) = 2.00 points a game = 092 point 46 game season Birmingham
To pass us would need 36 points from 17 games (83) = 2.20 points a game = 101 point 46 game season CARDIFF

86 points will probably be enough for second place, 87 would mean either Birmingham have to show
championship form for the rest of the season or Cardiff would need to play as well as Reading's 106 year
or Swansea would need just about the greatest run in history


Swansea's current run is W5 D9 = 24 from 14 WORSE than Reading's last 13
Since they started winning it's 16/18 = 2.66 per game
If they maintain that incredible 2.66 for 15 matches = 40 points = 88 total

Wow.

[Arch]

In the last seven games we've got ten points. If we keep up that form, we're unlikely to be first or second. AS it happens, of course, Wolves and Birmingham have been worse, but we can't count on their continued generosity.

I think we'll be at least in with a shout of automatic promotion right to the end, but I wish we'd make it a bit easier on ourselves.

[Platypuss]

In our last 13 we have picked up 26 points playing

Ah, yes. That well known metric.

FAIL.

[chilipepper91]

I think there's a reason form chart are never done on the last 13 games

[Snowball]

People keep saying we are having a bad run/playing badly

I posted this on another thread, looking at the games since we fell
twelve points behind Wolves

We have gained 3-19 points on our rivals = November 25th

The only side in the whole of the league that has done better than us is Cardiff
(in terms of points per game) but in ACTUAL points we have gained on them too.
They HAVE TO win both their games in hand to be contenders.

Despite the so-called "Mighty" Cardiff and the genuinely brilliant Swansea
and contrary to the opinions of some miserable sods on this list Reading have improved
their position against ALL of their rivals since 25 November when they were a full
twelve points behind Wolves without a game in hand.

25 November, 10 weeks ago

19 8 0 1 21 08 7 1 2 23 17 +19 46 WOLVES (Reading 8 points closer plus game in hand)
19 8 0 2 14 06 4 4 1 13 10 +11 40 BRUM (Reading gained 8 points on Birmingham))
19 7 1 1 25 06 3 3 4 16 14 +21 34 READING
19 5 3 2 13 07 4 1 4 13 09 +10 31 SHEFFIELD (Reading gained 5 points on Sheffield)
19 5 3 1 12 07 3 3 4 13 17 +01 30 BURNLEY (Reading have gained 8 points on Burnley)
19 5 3 2 16 11 2 5 2 08 08 +05 29 CARDIFF (Reading have gained 3 points on Cardiff) (CARDIFF GAMES IN HAND)
19 4 2 3 14 11 4 3 3 09 10 +02 29 PLYMOUTH (Reading have gained NINETEEN points on Plymouth)
19 4 4 1 17 09 3 3 4 10 15 +03 28 SWANSEA (reading have gain 5 points on Swansea)
19 6 0 3 15 12 2 4 4 12 14 +01 28 PRESTON (Reading have gained 3 points on Preston
19 7 1 2 16 09 1 3 5 02 11 -02 28 QPR (Reading have gained 3 points on QPR)


So we talk about "dangerous" Cardiff and the looming threat of Swansea

BUT WHILE THEY HAVE BEEN ENJOYING GOOD RUNS, WE'VE NOT DONE BAD.

10 GAMES 22 POINTS 2.2 PER GAME CARDIFF (now three games in hand)
12 GAMES 25 POINTS 2.1 PER GAME READING (game in hand)
12 GAMES 20 POINTS 1.7 PER GAME SWANSEA (game in hand)
13 GAMES 22 POINTS 1.7 PER GAME PRESTON
13 GAMES 20 POINTS 1.5 PER GAME SHEFFIELD
12 GAMES 17 POINTS 1.4 PER GAME BIRMINGHAM (game in hand)
12 GAMES 17 POINTS 1.4 PER GAME BURNLEY (game in hand)
13 GAMES 17 POINTS 1.3 PER GAME WOLVERHAMPTON

IF this continued to the end of the season


92 READING
89 CARDIFF
84 WOLVES
78 BIRMINGHAM
76 PRESTON
74 SWANSEA
72 SHEFFIELD
68 BURNLEY

SO WHAT I FAIL TO UNDERSTAND IS WHY PEOPLE ARE MOANING ABOUT A TERRIBLE RUN!!

[rfcjoe]

Guess what I aint reading all of.

[Sun Tzu]

Swansea were described by some as being on a great run becasue they hadn't lost in 8 games.

Of course all 8 had been draws....

I recently read a post which talked about Burnley as being in great form - despite their one win in 7....

We're not in great form but thankfully nor is anyone else !

[Platypuss]

People keep saying we are having a bad run/playing badly

...

SO WHAT I FAIL TO UNDERSTAND IS WHY PEOPLE ARE MOANING ABOUT A TERRIBLE RUN!!

God damn the opinions of those people who pay their money and actually watch the games!

[Schards#2]

People keep saying we are having a bad run/playing badly

I posted this on another thread, looking at the games since we fell
twelve points behind Wolves

We have gained 3-19 points on our rivals = November 25th

The only side in the whole of the league that has done better than us is Cardiff
(in terms of points per game) but in ACTUAL points we have gained on them too.
They HAVE TO win both their games in hand to be contenders.

Despite the so-called "Mighty" Cardiff and the genuinely brilliant Swansea
and contrary to the opinions of some miserable sods on this list Reading have improved
their position against ALL of their rivals since 25 November when they were a full
twelve points behind Wolves without a game in hand.

25 November, 10 weeks ago

19 8 0 1 21 08 7 1 2 23 17 +19 46 WOLVES (Reading 8 points closer plus game in hand)
19 8 0 2 14 06 4 4 1 13 10 +11 40 BRUM (Reading gained 8 points on Birmingham))
19 7 1 1 25 06 3 3 4 16 14 +21 34 READING
19 5 3 2 13 07 4 1 4 13 09 +10 31 SHEFFIELD (Reading gained 5 points on Sheffield)
19 5 3 1 12 07 3 3 4 13 17 +01 30 BURNLEY (Reading have gained 8 points on Burnley)
19 5 3 2 16 11 2 5 2 08 08 +05 29 CARDIFF (Reading have gained 3 points on Cardiff) (CARDIFF GAMES IN HAND)
19 4 2 3 14 11 4 3 3 09 10 +02 29 PLYMOUTH (Reading have gained NINETEEN points on Plymouth)
19 4 4 1 17 09 3 3 4 10 15 +03 28 SWANSEA (reading have gain 5 points on Swansea)
19 6 0 3 15 12 2 4 4 12 14 +01 28 PRESTON (Reading have gained 3 points on Preston
19 7 1 2 16 09 1 3 5 02 11 -02 28 QPR (Reading have gained 3 points on QPR)


So we talk about "dangerous" Cardiff and the looming threat of Swansea

BUT WHILE THEY HAVE BEEN ENJOYING GOOD RUNS, WE'VE NOT DONE BAD.

10 GAMES 22 POINTS 2.2 PER GAME CARDIFF (now three games in hand)
12 GAMES 25 POINTS 2.1 PER GAME READING (game in hand)
12 GAMES 20 POINTS 1.7 PER GAME SWANSEA (game in hand)
13 GAMES 22 POINTS 1.7 PER GAME PRESTON
13 GAMES 20 POINTS 1.5 PER GAME SHEFFIELD
12 GAMES 17 POINTS 1.4 PER GAME BIRMINGHAM (game in hand)
12 GAMES 17 POINTS 1.4 PER GAME BURNLEY (game in hand)
13 GAMES 17 POINTS 1.3 PER GAME WOLVERHAMPTON

IF this continued to the end of the season


92 READING
89 CARDIFF
84 WOLVES
78 BIRMINGHAM
76 PRESTON
74 SWANSEA
72 SHEFFIELD
68 BURNLEY

SO WHAT I FAIL TO UNDERSTAND IS WHY PEOPLE ARE MOANING ABOUT A TERRIBLE RUN!!

Why are you posting it again?

[Snowball]

Because it had somehow ended up in the Shane Long thread

[Schards#2]

Because it had somehow ended up in the Shane Long thread

And if people want to respond to it, i'm sure they will.

[Royal Yank]

Sorry Schards, but on a football message board, Snowball's post is entirely relevant, and worthy of its own thread. I personally find it an interesting analysis. It will soon drift to the bottom if nobody wants to discuss it.

[Southbank Old Boy]

It might be relevant but **cked if I'm bothering to read any more of his spamming like stats that dont add anything to a serious discussion on how the team are actually playing

[RobRoyal]

Gawd, Snowball. More selective facts.

Obviously we've improved our position since 25 Nov. Could that be due to the fact that we won 5 in a row after that date, and rather less down to our actual recent form?

We don't you take the last 4 games as a guide, or the last 7 even, and tell us where we'll finish if we carry on at that rate. Then perhaps you'll understand what's meant by "a bad run."

Also, please stop capitalising everything. It makes your posts difficult to take seriously.

[Smoking Kills Dancing Doe]

You have to admire Snowball, stats are not the be all and end all though.

But Snowball shows, that we are at a very crucial stage, if a team can put together a good run now, they could open up a gap.

A massive month coming up for Reading. We need Doyler back in the goals and SHunt and Kebe causing the problems we know they can...

[Snowball]

Sorry Schards, but on a football message board, Snowball's post is entirely relevant, and worthy of its own thread. I personally find it an interesting analysis. It will soon drift to the bottom if nobody wants to discuss it.

It got zapped

[Snowball]

The reason I post stats is because of the idiotic posts on this list.

It is always MERE OPINION and posted as near-absolute certainty

If you read the threads on the Preston game as one example, you will see Shane praised and rubbished, Harps praised and rubbished, Lita praised and rubbished, Doyle praised and rubbished, what exactly is the POINT of all that crap?

It's just NOISE, chattering masses.

People come on here with pre-set opinions and 99% of them rigidly refuse to change them.

It's not DEBATE, it's a childish shouting match.

If half the lists says Lita Good, and the other half says Lita bad, too bloody right I will point out that in the last two seasons he has played 15 games and 7 more as sub, and scored 2 goals. BECAUSE THAT IS A FACT, NOT AN OPINION

[Southbank Old Boy]

Football is not a game of absolutes, facts and stats though, it is a game of different views and opinions

[cmonurz]

Snowball's stats are all well and good, but they don't tell us how other teams may fare in the remainder of the season. 2 points per game from hereon might not be enough if Wolves and Birmingham win every match from here until May.

All we can do is go game by game - for me, a real chance to close the gap to Wolves was lost yesterday. Hopefully we will get another chance.