Start to the season - a comparison

User avatar
strap
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 2802
Joined: 15 Apr 2004 09:06
Location: Gainsford End

Start to the season - a comparison

by strap » 27 Sep 2009 19:19

Well we are now 9 games into a 46 game league season, nigh on 20% of the way through the campaign. So I thought I would update the stats on starts to the season. I’ve added a bit more info, including a look at the number of players utilised by the various managers over the years in the first 9 games as well as the total used each season. In an effort to try to remain consistent, I have ignored players who have only made sub apps, and I have also ignored cup games. This way our record pre-1960, (no subs or LC), can be compared against our modern record.

BR has used 24 different players in the starting 9 league games (30 if you then add the 2 LC games). Only Tommy Burns with 26 in 1998/99 beats the League record.

If you expand this to include Cup games, and take the first 11 games of the season, BR with 30 is streets ahead of the rest, with only Tommy Burns, coincidentally also with 26 in 1998/99 coming close to BR over the first 11 games. Burns also holds the RFC league record of 40 different players used in a League campaign 1998/99, (with a further 5 who only made sub apps).

The message here is logical, and actually blindingly obvious, but at least on this occasion historical early season stats tend to correlate with final league finishing positions, (in itself an unlikely stat!) :

The fewer points obtained at the start of the season, the more likely the chance of relegation.
The greater the number of different players used, the more likely the chance of relegation.
The lower down the table a team is after a handful of games, the more likely the chance of relegation. (I did an exercise a few years ago that suggested that 50% of teams finish no more than 5 places above or below where they stood after about 10 games into a season, but can't seem to find it on my laptop).

Another thing I am doing is looking at the composition of startingh XIs. To date, BR has used 9 different combinations in 9 League starts, never picked the same starting XI twice, never mind in successive matches. The only Managers with comparable records were Burns and Bullivant.

Bullivant picked 35 different lineups in 38 League games, using the same lineup only twice on 3 occasions.
Burns picked 55 diferetnt lineups in 59 League games, using the same lineup again only twice, on 4 occasions.

The football played under these 2 clowns was dreadful. They were clearly groping around in the dark desperately hoping to stumble miraculously onto a winning formula. All the evidence of BR to date suggests he is doing exactly the same thing, and has even thrown in a whole raft of different formations just to add further confusion all round. It's one thing to experiment with different formations, and indeed personnel, but to do this in vital league games is simply naive. Surely the training ground, and behind closed door friendlies or reserve matches is the place for such experimentation?

RFC history suggests that we are most successful with a settled team playing a stable formation. At present we have neither of these things, so history suggests we are in for a rocky ride this season. So far, this is the 9th worst start to a league season we've endured in 83 seasons.

Will be back with more later.


User avatar
strap
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 2802
Joined: 15 Apr 2004 09:06
Location: Gainsford End

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by strap » 27 Sep 2009 19:22

A small request - I recall stumbling acorss a website that calculated league tables in a specified season on a specified date, thereby allowing a comparison of a team's league position throughout a season. Buggered if I can find a link to it now. If anyone has a clue where I could find this it would be much appreciated, as I can fill in the missing league positions on teh above chart.

TIA.

User avatar
Ian Royal
Hob Nob Legend
Posts: 35156
Joined: 15 Apr 2004 13:43
Location: Playing spot the pc*nt on HNA?

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by Ian Royal » 27 Sep 2009 19:54

Hi Strap, I'm sure that's good statage as always, but a personal bugbear of mine would be that 9 games is still too early.

It may be a bit odd, but I firmly believe you can't make any concrete comparisons or decisions until at least 10 games have been played. Could you update after Preston please? Hope that isn't too much bother.

User avatar
Wycombe Royal
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6682
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 19:31
Location: Churchdown, Glos

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by Wycombe Royal » 27 Sep 2009 20:00

Some good stats there Strap, however I think one difference between Rodgers and the other two is that Rodgers has a clear strategy (some might call it World Class) of what he is trying to do.

Also neither Burns or Bullivant had such an inexperienced squad in terms of RFC appearances to work with. There are definite positive signs from Rodgers team and it will become more settled once he has worked out his best combinations, for example he has only just got McAnuff and Ingimarsson available for selection.

Rodgers has a long term plan, which may or may not work, I don't think Burns or Bullivant did.

User avatar
strap
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 2802
Joined: 15 Apr 2004 09:06
Location: Gainsford End

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by strap » 27 Sep 2009 20:05

Ian Royal Hi Strap, I'm sure that's good statage as always, but a personal bugbear of mine would be that 9 games is still too early.

It may be a bit odd, but I firmly believe you can't make any concrete comparisons or decisions until at least 10 games have been played. Could you update after Preston please? Hope that isn't too much bother.


I can't disagree Ian, but as we get further into the season things will settle down, and I'm interested in when the earliest we can start to sensibly predict finishing positions. I mentioned in the blurb above that I'd previously found that after 10 games, no more than 50% of teams finish more than 5 positions higher or lower than they were at that time. I'm just interested in how many games it takes for say 75% of teams to not move by more than 4 or 5 positions, (at a guess it would probably be Jan/Feb time?)

Already, even after just 9 games, it is apparent historically that relegation and promotion seasons start to gravitate to the relevant end of the chart. I would guess that around Christmas things would become mroe solid (as evidenced by the bottom team in the PL at Christmas rarely escaping releagtion stat often bandied around on SSN etc).

I have set up the database to be able to print off the above chart after any number of games, so absolutely no problem in replicating after Preston.


westendgirl
Member
Posts: 365
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 09:58

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by westendgirl » 27 Sep 2009 20:15

Wycombe Royal Some good stats there Strap, however I think one difference between Rodgers and the other two is that Rodgers has a clear strategy (some might call it World Class) of what he is trying to do.

Also neither Burns or Bullivant had such an inexperienced squad in terms of RFC appearances to work with. There are definite positive signs from Rodgers team and it will become more settled once he has worked out his best combinations, for example he has only just got McAnuff and Ingimarsson available for selection.

Rodgers has a long term plan, which may or may not work, I don't think Burns or Bullivant did.


I tend to agree and maybe I'm being overoptimisitic but didin't Burns finish 11th? I would tkae that this season on the basis that there has been so much change.

User avatar
strap
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 2802
Joined: 15 Apr 2004 09:06
Location: Gainsford End

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by strap » 27 Sep 2009 20:16

Wycombe Royal Some good stats there Strap, however I think one difference between Rodgers and the other two is that Rodgers has a clear strategy (some might call it World Class) of what he is trying to do.

Also neither Burns or Bullivant had such an inexperienced squad in terms of RFC appearances to work with. There are definite positive signs from Rodgers team and it will become more settled once he has worked out his best combinations, for example he has only just got McAnuff and Ingimarsson available for selection.

Rodgers has a long term plan, which may or may not work, I don't think Burns or Bullivant did.


Hi Wycombe. I'm yet to be convinced that BR has ANY plan at all! We've already seen upwards of 6 different formations in 9 leag and 2 LC games, (4-5-1, 4-4-2, 4-4-2 diamond, 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3, 4-1-4-1 that I can remember). Couple that to the Burns-esque chopping and changing of personnel, and I personally feel you have a recipe for disaster. The evidence suggests he has no idea what he wants, despite alluding to a love of 4-5-1, (which the current squad have yet to show any ability to adapt to).

SSC stuck to 4-4-2 and brought in players who were either used to the system, or who he felt could easily be trained to adapt to it. Of course, the achilles heal of sticking rigidly to 4-4-2 was that once opposition cottoned on to it, we had no effective plan B. So I accept that it is essential that the team should be able to change formations, but until there is a coherent Plan A that the team are comfortable with, asking them to work up Plans B, C and D virtually on the hoof, is asking for trouble. That might have worked at Chelsea where the skill levels are World Class, but down here in the second tier, BR has to cut his cloth and work with more journeymen type players. I would suggest he keeps things simple untyil the team has developed a full understadning of one system, before attemoting to cram their minds with his World Clas thinking.

weybridgewanderer
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 2372
Joined: 19 Nov 2005 23:08
Location: is it time to go home?

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by weybridgewanderer » 27 Sep 2009 20:18

Wycombe Royal Some good stats there Strap, however I think one difference between Rodgers and the other two is that Rodgers has a clear strategy (some might call it World Class) of what he is trying to do.

Also neither Burns or Bullivant had such an inexperienced squad in terms of RFC appearances to work with. There are definite positive signs from Rodgers team and it will become more settled once he has worked out his best combinations, for example he has only just got McAnuff and Ingimarsson available for selection.

Rodgers has a long term plan, which may or may not work, I don't think Burns or Bullivant did.


So what is this great strategy? 4-5-1? wingers? a diamond? play a different team every week depending on the weaknesses of the opposition?

Do you think we have the players for any 1 of these strategies never mind that we seem to be trying all 4?

Alivey
Member
Posts: 507
Joined: 05 Feb 2009 18:29

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by Alivey » 27 Sep 2009 20:21

Thanks Strap your stats confirm the worst.. we are shite :o


roberto_11
Member
Posts: 222
Joined: 18 Oct 2004 17:02
Location: Reading

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by roberto_11 » 27 Sep 2009 20:22

This is all well and good with the differernt lineups in as many matches saying familiarity is the key, which was a big part in our success 2005-7.

However wasnt there a similar stat with Benitez at Liverpool for a long while, never fielding the same team. Hes done pretty well considering!!

User avatar
Wycombe Royal
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6682
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 19:31
Location: Churchdown, Glos

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by Wycombe Royal » 27 Sep 2009 20:28

weybridgewanderer So what is this great strategy? 4-5-1? wingers? a diamond? play a different team every week depending on the weaknesses of the opposition?

Do you think we have the players for any 1 of these strategies never mind that we seem to be trying all 4?

You are confusing strategy with formation.

weybridgewanderer
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 2372
Joined: 19 Nov 2005 23:08
Location: is it time to go home?

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by weybridgewanderer » 27 Sep 2009 20:29

so what is the strategy? players under 21?

User avatar
Ian Royal
Hob Nob Legend
Posts: 35156
Joined: 15 Apr 2004 13:43
Location: Playing spot the pc*nt on HNA?

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by Ian Royal » 27 Sep 2009 20:31

roberto_11 This is all well and good with the differernt lineups in as many matches saying familiarity is the key, which was a big part in our success 2005-7.

However wasnt there a similar stat with Benitez at Liverpool for a long while, never fielding the same team. Hes done pretty well considering!!


Not really, Wasn't it under him Liverpool finished 5th in a 4 horse race? He's failed to win the title, or even challenge for it in some of his seasons.


/ It's fairly obvious that teams will gravitate towards their final positions fairly early on because whilst form can be patchy, 10 games is usually enough to get a good idea of the potential a club has. Doesn't always work out like that obviously.

But any team bottom at xmas has to essentially turn relegation form into top half form insantly. Obviously not something that is going to happen often. If you've had relegation form for half the season it's probably for a bloody good reason.

The worrying things are we don't really have any match winners like Bullard or McBride to come back from injury into our line up which will dramatically increase our quality.

Then again, a settled side of the right players, with a workable formation and tactics and we should be fine.


PEARCEY
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5970
Joined: 29 Jun 2007 23:44

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by PEARCEY » 27 Sep 2009 21:27

Thanks Strap. Love of the stats you post on here. These latest ones are sobering and certainly the historical data indicates a tough relegation battle lies ahead which coupled with our inability to survive in this division for more than a few seasons at a time should be cause for concern.

User avatar
Wycombe Royal
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6682
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 19:31
Location: Churchdown, Glos

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by Wycombe Royal » 27 Sep 2009 21:33

weybridgewanderer so what is the strategy? players under 21?

Everything, the whole direction in which he is trying to take the club.

The squad.
The training.
The formations.
The team selection.

And so on.......

weybridgewanderer
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 2372
Joined: 19 Nov 2005 23:08
Location: is it time to go home?

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by weybridgewanderer » 27 Sep 2009 22:49

so what is it, articulate it to me, how is it progressing? what is different to it from say coppell or pardews vision for the club? and I see you say formation is part of the strategy yet you said I confused formation with stagety. so what formation is the one in the strategy and do you think we have the players to execute that part of the strategy?

User avatar
Wycombe Royal
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6682
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 19:31
Location: Churchdown, Glos

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by Wycombe Royal » 28 Sep 2009 08:52

weybridgewanderer so what is it, articulate it to me, how is it progressing?

Where did I say it was progressing? Where did I say it was working? Where did I even say it would work? I just said there were some positive signs.

I suggest you try reading my original comments again and then come back and argue them with me.

User avatar
Hugo Boss
Hob Nob Subscriber
Hob Nob Subscriber
Posts: 2183
Joined: 13 Apr 2004 22:48
Location: Retrieving the FFF ball from the car park.

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by Hugo Boss » 28 Sep 2009 09:04

Good work Strap - Just curious though, why is the Coppell promotion season not included??

Ryn
Member
Posts: 672
Joined: 19 Feb 2005 17:36
Location: Reading

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by Ryn » 28 Sep 2009 09:33

Hugo Boss Good work Strap - Just curious though, why is the Coppell promotion season not included??


He only has the worst 60 starts there, not every season.

HTH.

Great effort as always Strap, keep up the good work.

Negative_Jeff
Member
Posts: 575
Joined: 25 May 2008 20:27

Re: Start to the season - a comparison

by Negative_Jeff » 28 Sep 2009 10:07

After ten games defeat at Preston would leave us dangerously close to requiring 1.5 points per game to acheive the safety mark of 50 points. This is a tall order and over a season would put us in contention for the play offs.
I have thought that Rodgers had enough about him to be given the time to build a settled team but the fact is he is further away from it than ever as Strap`s statistics show. After the lump it forward 4-4-2 second half against Watford he has surely been through the card bar playing three at the back.
So then, if we do lose at Preston I shall have to hold my hands up and gracefully retire.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Greatwesternline, MartinRdg, Polonia, tidus_mi2, UpThePrem, WestYorksRoyal and 201 guests

It is currently 29 Apr 2025 10:18