How far will England go?

[Winston Biscuit]

How far do you think England will go?

[Winston Biscuit]

I say we go out in the QF to France

[Loafer]

I'm putting a cheeky 5 on knocked out in the groups

[Clyde1998]

I reckon the semi-finals, without looking at what the actual path would be.

[St Pauli]

England will not get past the group stage.

[Sutekh]

Semis

[Snowflake Royal]

If we win the group, probably QF.

If we are second, probably 1st knockout

[Winston Biscuit]

Seems to be a huge disparity between media opinion and fans opinion

Lots of media claiming we HAVE to win, otherwise it's failure and GS has to go etc, but I only hear fans predicting we will make the QF or SF and that we are not favourites for it

[Pepe the Horseman]

Likely to be Italy in the quarters and France in the semis, so semis I reckon.

[SouthDownsRoyal]

A bit surprised/ bemused as to why we are favourites at some bookies

[Winston Biscuit]

A bit surprised/ bemused as to why we are favourites at some bookies

Because it's where so much of the betting in England is going

[Snowflake Royal]

A bit surprised/ bemused as to why we are favourites at some bookies

Because it's where so much of the betting in England is going

Constantly surprises me that people think bookies odds are some sort of expert prediction, rather than an uneducated guess constantly changed by where the money goes mainly.

[SouthDownsRoyal]

A bit surprised/ bemused as to why we are favourites at some bookies

Because it's where so much of the betting in England is going

Constantly surprises me that people think bookies odds are some sort of expert prediction, rather than an uneducated guess constantly changed by where the money goes mainly.

I get that but it still amazes me there is so much money being put on England

[Snowflake Royal]

Because it's where so much of the betting in England is going

Constantly surprises me that people think bookies odds are some sort of expert prediction, rather than an uneducated guess constantly changed by where the money goes mainly.

I get that but it still amazes me there is so much money being put on England

Ah right. Well there's a lot of dim wits about I guess. We're almost always overhyped and we do have an exceptional front line. People forget the defence a lot

[WestYorksRoyal]

I don't think TAA will be our answer in CM. He can play a Hollywood pass, take a good set piece and hit a screamer. But I'm not convinced by his positional sense to help out defensively, and in possession what we really need is someone who can receive from the defence on the turn and play a quick, simple pass through the lines to get our attacking players in dangerous positions. A role where you can get 0 goals or assists and still be MOTM. Has to be between Mainoo and Wharton.

[BRO_BOT]

Constantly surprises me that people think bookies odds are some sort of expert prediction, rather than an uneducated guess constantly changed by where the money goes mainly.

I get that but it still amazes me there is so much money being put on England

Ah right. Well there's a lot of dim wits about I guess. We're almost always overhyped and we do have an exceptional front line. People forget the defence a lot

The odds at international level are calculated using ELO and the team's international ELO rating

Slovenia = 1733
Denmark = 1824

P = 1/(1+10^-(1834-1733)/400)) = 63%

Which when converted to odds is about 1.6 (.6/1) add in the bookmaker over round and you're in the right ball park

[BRO_BOT]

England (1981) v Serbia (1801)

1/(1+10^-(180/400)) = 72

Which when converted to odds (at 100%) is about 1.39 add-in bookmaker over round and again you're in the ballpark



Bookmakers probably don't have a balanced book like a market maker. I'd imagine they underprice favorites

[BRO_BOT]

Or to put that another way, Ian is wrong!

[Snowflake Royal]

Bore off back to your algorithm Brobot.

[BRO_BOT]

Bore off back to your algorithm Brobot.