World Cup Betting Thread

[Ouroboros]

Nope.



Nearly, though. That counts for something, right?

[The Prisoner]

Doing a £10 to a grand challenge if anyone fancies it. Got most of the way there on first effort til Ivory Coast - Greece screwed it up

http://www.redtipster.co.uk/world-cup-10toagrand/

[LWJ]

Fixtures 26/6
£10 Portugal @ 2.12 W
£10 Draw @ 3.3 (USA v Germany) L
£10 Draw @ 3.8 (Algeria v Russia) W
£10 Belgium @ 1.83 W
Return: £37.50
Total: -£36.80

Portugal v Ghana - Ghana @3.05 L
USA v Germany - Germany @ 1.75 W
Algeria v Russia - Russia @2.16 L
South Korea v Belgium - South Korea @ 5.3 L
Return: -£22.50
Total: -£131.40

[Ouroboros]

I'm not really sure what you two are supposed to be proving anymore. It's a race to the bottom.

[BR2]

Had a good bet on the bookings last night.
My assumption was that these are crucial games so the risk of getting a booking is outweighed by the importance of a team qualifying.
Not big prices but 4 doubles and a treble where for 3 of the games the quote was for more than 2.5 cards and 3.5 in the other so when the ref did his 3rd booking in the Russia game it clinched the bet.
Bookings have been at a very low level in this tournament so far with nobody (?) being booked for simulation but as the importance grows I would expect more but that will probably be reflected in the bookies' prices.

It might also be worth looking at the corners market (betting under) as games become more and more cagey with greater midfield possession as often happens in the later stages of the European Champs League.

[LWJ]

I'm not really sure what you two are supposed to be proving anymore. It's a race to the bottom.

C_U1/Whatevs has for months suggested that random betting is more profitable than using any knowledge you may have. Regardless if I'm down or not, if he is more down it shows his view on betting is wrong

[Ouroboros]

I'm pretty sure his response will be that, on average, random betting with return your stake minus the bookmakers' cut. As you seem to be losing more than that, I don't think you've proved him wrong about anything.

[Whatevs]

I'm pretty sure his response will be that, on average, random betting with return your stake minus the bookmakers' cut. As you seem to be losing more than that, I don't think you've proved him wrong about anything.

Along those lines but with obvious random variations you may get un/lucky and win/lose would expect it to follow some kind of normal distribution. If it was aggregated across everybody over time then yep exactly what you're saying

Random betting may have given winning bets such as Costa Rica v everyone else in the group or Spain, Italy, England being eliminated at the group stages etc. Knowledge would have made this a very unlikely choice (apart from EngLOLand).

[double d]

I have always believed in random betting in football mixed with knowledge, but pure knowledge in horses. I bet on scandanavian football mostly, very knowledgeable about that. Plus Dutch football (over 2.5 goals basically every game)

[LWJ]

I'm pretty sure his response will be that, on average, random betting with return your stake minus the bookmakers' cut. As you seem to be losing more than that, I don't think you've proved him wrong about anything.

I might just be having a slow day but I don't understand the first part. I am down £30 in total. He is down £130 surely that is showing random betting isn't winning?

[Ouroboros]

As he says, over enough time it's almost a given that random betting will lose you only the bookies' overround. How could it not?

He may be on a poor run at the moment but that doesn't change the above fact.

I might be wrong but it appears that you are currently losing more than the bookies' overround, which would suggest that you are doing worse than would be expected on average through random picking.

You and me both, of course.

[LWJ]

Fixtures 26/6
£10 Portugal @ 2.12
£10 Draw @ 3.3 (USA v Germany)
£10 Draw @ 3.8 (Algeria v Russia)
£10 Belgium @ 1.83

Fixtures 28/6
£10 Draw @ 1.63
£10 Uruguay @ 4

Just saying I got the wrong price for the draw.. It was 4.6 pre kick off

[double d]

Got on Holland to win 2-1 at 18/1 in play I was chain smoking outside the pub and my heart was beating so hard at the end of that game

[Pepe the Horseman]

Just put £20 on Costa Rica at 9/5, even though I'm convinced it'll be a draw.

[Pepe the Horseman]

Probs should've gone with the draw...

[Ouroboros]

Get in

Backed Colombia, Holland and Costa Rica.

Unfortunately for £5 singles only

[Pepe the Horseman]

Yay!

[Pepe the Horseman]

FFFFUUUUUUUCCCCCCKKKKKKK

[paultheroyal]

Just put £20 on Costa Rica at 9/5, even though I'm convinced it'll be a draw.

Feel your psin

[Pepe the Horseman]

Germany/France double at evens is surely easy money. Right guys??!!