Are Cardiff more of a threat to us than Brum?

[Dirk Gently]

("Goddammit") Kevin Phillips ("Again") draws 'em level late

I watched all of tonights game and Brum were just the same as they were in 3 or 4 others I've seen this season......................worse than ordinary but bailed out by Phillips.

In all these match the commentators have drooled over what they see as the "depth" and "quality" in their squad yet only one player seems to produce the goods.

We might be justified in complaining about some of the poor performances from our team but when RFC and Wolves are on song they hammer the opposition, whereas Brum seem to be getting by on a wing and a prayer.

I think it's fair to say there are better teams below BC and that without significant improvement we won't be the last team to catch and overtake them before the seasons end.

The best money RFC could spend at the moment would appear to be paying someone to nobble Philips, never mind buying new players.

[Arch]

First goal since Christmas. KP is not going to stop us going up.

[IMAMATEOFJOVSKY]

Cardiff are closing the gap every week - with a game in hand they will close to within 2 points of Brum if they win - should they be the team we worry about as opposed to Brum? They have been on an impressive run and I think they may mix things up a bit at the top

Their fixtures remaining are below

Charlton Athletic A League 15:00
Sun 15 Feb Queens Park Rangers H League 15:00
Wed 18 Feb Derby County H League 19:45
Sun 22 Feb Wolverhampton Wanderers A League 13:00
Sat 28 Feb Southampton A League 15:00
Tue 03 Mar Barnsley H League 19:45
Sat 07 Mar Doncaster Rovers H League 15:00
Tue 10 Mar Norwich City A League 19:45
Sat 14 Mar Bristol City A League 15:00
Tue 17 Mar Watford H League 19:45
Sun 22 Mar Sheffield United H League 15:00
Sat 04 Apr Swansea City H League 15:00
Sat 11 Apr Crystal Palace A League 15:00
Mon 13 Apr Burnley H League 15:00
Sat 18 Apr Preston North End A League 15:00
Sat 25 Apr Ipswich Town H League 15:00
Sun 03 May Sheffield Wednesday A League 15:00

[SCIAG]

Tougher run in than ours IMO.

They are more of a threat than Brum, but I don't rate their defence. Actually I don't rate Wolves or Brum's defence!

[Agent Balti]

Yes...No...Maybe. What does it matter? Worrying about Reading is enough for me.

[bottom left hand corner]

I've been thinking this last few weeks and i think if they dont get automatic promotion they will win the Play offs.

[pooandwee]

And they have just got this guy on loan from Arsenal.

[SLAMMED]

pLOLayoffs

[OLLIE KEARNS]

They most certainly are and especially so if they manage to sign another striker tomorrow. I was impressed with them at the Mad Stad and left the game thinking that Fedders goal might just be very important come the end of the season.
I still expect Brum to drop out as their defence is just not good enough. They've been getting away with it but are gradually falling off the pace.
Wolves is a mental challenge more than anythimg although they probably need a centre half. Seeing their lead gradually fade away is a tough situation for a young team and the last 16 games will ask some serious questions of them.
We're in for an interesting 3 months and, something not mentioned that much as yet, but our goal difference might just be crucial come the end of the season.

[Archie's penalty]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=84602&start=0&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[Franchise FC]

I think they're the third horse. Birmingham will be 4th pretty soon if yesterdays (and a few other televised) performances are anything to go by.

[Stranded]

They most certainly are and especially so if they manage to sign another striker tomorrow. I was impressed with them at the Mad Stad and left the game thinking that Fedders goal might just be very important come the end of the season.
I still expect Brum to drop out as their defence is just not good enough. They've been getting away with it but are gradually falling off the pace.
Wolves is a mental challenge more than anythimg although they probably need a centre half. Seeing their lead gradually fade away is a tough situation for a young team and the last 16 games will ask some serious questions of them.
We're in for an interesting 3 months and, something not mentioned that much as yet, but our goal difference might just be crucial come the end of the season.

Brum's defence is the reason they are anywhere near us as they've only managed 37 goals. Would be interesting to know how many points they've grabbed in the last few minutes due to late winners/equalisers...

[PEARCEY]

I dont think Cardiff have enough depth to finish in the top two. Plays off yes but no more than that...although their results are impressive of late.
Hats off to Dave Jones. He has sold Chopra, Ramsey, Loovens and Gunter for big bucks and spent peanuts on incoming signings. A very good manager doing a very good job...

[CMRoyal]

My crude forecast (an average of extrapolating PPG so far and Last 6) leaves a final table of:-

1. Wolves 89
2. Cardiff 86
3. Reading 85
4. Brum 83

So, on current form Cardiff are doing enough to overhaul us at the death.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

hobnob.royals.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=84602&start=0&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

Awwww, dewd...down the memory hoLOLe with the original?!

Would be interesting to know how many points [Brum]'ve grabbed in the last few minutes due to late winners/equalisers...

Well, they sure don't make it as easy as they used to, but it's out there if one is willing to endure the exercise of picking the locks.

pLOLayoffs

Fine --but only because you asked for it.

[SCIAG]

And they have just got this guy on loan from Arsenal.

No they don't. Quincy Owusu-Abeye left Arsenal two years ago. He plays for Spartak Moscow (yep, the club where Bikey was racially abused!)

[Arch]

My crude forecast (an average of extrapolating PPG so far and Last 6) leaves a final table of:-

1. Wolves 89
2. Cardiff 86
3. Reading 85
4. Brum 83

So, on current form Cardiff are doing enough to overhaul us at the death.

Your point about Cardiff is right. There are many measures of form that have them catching us. But you must have done the calculation wrong on Wolves and Birmingham. Our form over the last six is better than Wolves (3 points more) and the same as Birmingham's. If your measure is an even mix of season average and form over last six, we ought to gain a point on Birmingham and a few points on Wolves.

Edit: So I just did this calculation with season PPG and form over last six weighted exactly evenly, and I got this:

1. Wolves 86.5
2. Reading 85.5
3. Cardiff 84.5
4. Birmingham 83

The .5's were near enough to spot on that it would have been misleading to round them. Interestingly, the more you weight recent form to bring Cardiff up to us, the more Wolves come back to us. As I said earlier in the thread, there's almost no way to measure form that has both Wolves and Cardiff coming out ahead of us.

One more edit : It should be 85.8 for Cardiff, so I take it all back.

[exileinleeds]

And they have just got this guy on loan from Arsenal.

No they don't. Quincy Owusu-Abeye left Arsenal two years ago. He plays for Spartak Moscow (yep, the club where Bikey was racially abused!)

Was on loan at Brum, but has just signed for Cardiff.

[Coppell's Right Footed 11]

Thats Lloyd Owusu!!

DUH DUR DUR DUR LLOYD OWUSU!!!

[Snowball]

Maybe Cardiff are "dangerous"

If the predictions above are correct maybe you should be getting a bet on

The bookies don't agree

To WIN Championship
5/4 Wolves
6/4 Reading
9/2 Birmingham (you can get 6-1)

12/1 Cardiff (14-1 best)
33/1 Sheffield (you can get 129-1 !)
40/1 QPR (139-1)
50/1 Preston (109-1 best)
50/1 Swansea (125-1 best)

To Be Promoted

2/7 Wolves
1/3 Reading
8/11 Birmingham

3/1 Cardiff

5/1 Sheffield United
5/1 QPR
13/2 Preston
7/1 Swansea