THE BETTING THREAD

[Thomas L'Heureux]

Following a successful week and another day today with overs on the Hull v Man City game I'm on over 2.5 goals in the Barca game, but its 0-0 at HT, this can't happen!

1-0, Messi. There's still plenty of time Skin!

[chilipepper91]

2-0, 90th minute...

[chilipepper91]

On http://www.flashscores.co.uk it says Barca are playing Eto'o, Gudjohnsen, Henry AND Messi

Which is good news, hopefully my four-fold of Celtic, Groningen, AC Milan, and Barcelona will come off.

Good call, how much for how much?

My Lyon-Barca double came off, £5 returned £13.80 for me this week

Congrats to Skin, next week I'm taking a serious look at borrowing your tips! And congrats everyone else of course

[cmonurz]

Have again covered 0-2 and 0-3, at 8/1 and 9/1 respectively.

I must say, I am shit hot this week.

[chilipepper91]

Have again covered 0-2 and 0-3, at 8/1 and 9/1 respectively.

I must say, I am shit hot this week.

Everyone seems to have made profit this week! Makes me feel proud haha.

[Skin]

cheers but didn't get the overs in the barca game despite a last min header that hit the bar! nevermind. only small stake lost there from a good profit.

well done c'monurz tho

[cmonurz]

It's ever since you join the fray chili, with your bargain bucket bets, that our fortunes have picked up!

[chilipepper91]

It's ever since you join the fray chili, with your bargain bucket bets, that our fortunes have picked up!

I call it student betting, every little helps

[Thomas L'Heureux]

On http://www.flashscores.co.uk it says Barca are playing Eto'o, Gudjohnsen, Henry AND Messi

Which is good news, hopefully my four-fold of Celtic, Groningen, AC Milan, and Barcelona will come off.

Good call, how much for how much?

I put £50 on it, which returned £135.25 in total.

Add that to my profit of £187.21 yesterday, and I'm £272.46 up for the weekend.

[cmonurz]

Actually, maybe the more serious gamblers can fill me in - is this the 'best' time of the season to bet, i.e. form has settled down, fewer shocks, more 'standard' results? I've picked up a few away wins, and correct scores in the last two or three weeks just by reading form and using a bit of logic.

[Skin]

Form aside, chosing a match winner is obviously harder than predicting unders or overs as there are 3 possible outcomes from a match (home, away or draw) and with unders and overs there are only 2 (under or over). Its stating the obvious but when you put the odds of 1 in 3 into an acca you already have 9 possible combinations of outcome for a double and 27 possible combinations for a treble! And I don't think following form as such reduces the odds significantly, it might do sometimes but not often enough.

Unders/Overs is 50/50, or you have 4 possible outcomes for a double and only 12 for a treble. Still sounds a lot but by applying form and doing a bit of homework you can increase you chances enough to justify using your hard earned, I find there are always games where predicting overs is made easier by a top team playing a shit team or as was proved with Cheltenham this weekend, the worst defence in the league and they let 3 in, Swindon always conceed but they do score aswell, Bristol Rovers have Lambert, top scorer in the league.. Also visa versa, teams that have tight defences playing each other or teams that only seem to score the odd goal, are good for unders.

Its all a matter of opinion and I don't consider myself a 'serious gambler' but I have more success follwing the unders/overs markets and logic says you will win more often. If I do bet on a team to win I try to stick to singles now.

[chilipepper91]

Then again, Barca last night - had scored more than 4 in 5 of their previous 7 games I think, had 3 quality strikers on the pitch, yet it was 0-0 at half-time and only 2-0 by the 85th minute. Whereas you probably knew they'd win.

[Skin]

Point taken but when you consider the odds for a win were 1/3 and the odds for overs were 1/2, as a single bet it makes more sense to me to play overs, stakes v return wise. Saying that with hindsight being such a wonderful thing 2-0 Barca was the obvious bet at 6/1

[Thomas L'Heureux]

Then again, Barca last night - had scored more than 4 in 5 of their previous 7 games I think, had 3 quality strikers on the pitch, yet it was 0-0 at half-time and only 2-0 by the 85th minute. Whereas you probably knew they'd win.

Fantastic answer.

The overs/under market is not necessarily a 'safer bet' if you excuse the pun, than a normal 'to win' accumulator.

I understand Skin's logic, but I don't really agree. There's two outcomes in an under/over bet, but there's also two outcomes in a 'to win' bet. If I back Chelsea, they either win or they don't win.

Skin's logic is slightly flawed because he's not making the correct comparison. If you compared the fact that there could be no goal, one goal, two goals, or more, with the win, lose, or draw option then you'd be correct, and therefore it's safer to go with the 'to win' bet in a possible outcomes sense.

This isn't to say that the under/overs market is not a good route to go down though, as, through taking into consideration the points that Skin made, you can definitely be profitable.

He's right in saying that if you do your homework then you can make money. I funded my whole university course by gambling, and it was through doing so sensibly that I achieved this. I didn't get greedy and I spread my bets, meaning I was rarely at a loss.

I won over £250 this weekend, but had one of my lines not come through, I would still have been in profit as I spread my choices over three or four doubles/trebles, and rounded it off nicely win a fourfold.

[Skin]

Great debate and some good points. Like I said its all down to opinion and more importantly experience and comfort with what you are doing. Bookies will lay football accas all day because they know that a treble has 27 possible outcomes. They work on probability and clean up every weekend form casual punters doing the football. They don't even offer a straight under/overs market on the high street (Ladbrokes aside, but then you do have to ask and then they have to mess around getting odds from their intranet).
This tells me that its not something they are as happy to lay because more bets are won this way. Goes back to being 1 of 2 outcomes as opposed to 1 of 3 outcomes. (The point about a match result being a win or not I can't agree, its a 1 in 3 chance, the coupon tells you that).
Maybe I'm wrong but its my experience that I win more playing overs/unders. Simple as.

[Thomas L'Heureux]

Great debate and some good points. Like I said its all down to opinion and more importantly experience and comfort with what you are doing. Bookies will lay football accas all day because they know that a treble has 27 possible outcomes. They work on probability and clean up every weekend form casual punters doing the football. They don't even offer a straight under/overs market on the high street (Ladbrokes aside, but then you do have to ask and then they have to mess around getting odds from their intranet).
This tells me that its not something they are as happy to lay because more bets are won this way. Goes back to being 1 of 2 outcomes as opposed to 1 of 3 outcomes. (The point about a match result being a win or not I can't agree, its a 1 in 3 chance, the coupon tells you that).
Maybe I'm wrong but its my experience that I win more playing overs/unders. Simple as.

You raise a good point with regards to how the Bookmakers approach the under/overs market. They certainly advertise it a lot less frequently than your standard accumulator, and that's most likely for the reasons you've documented. I think you approach it well (from the three or so pages I've read since joining the thread) and seem to do your homework. That could be the key to it though, the amount of research you do beforehand.

In a lot of cases, I have friends who go into Ladbrokes or Coral every Saturday morning and put a few quid on a six to seven game accumulator. The fact that they can casually walk in, pick half-a-dozen teams off of the weekend's coupon, and pay their stake makes it a very easy process. The friends in question know their football as much as anyone else, but they rarely win.

On the otherhand, you have the under/overs market. In my opinion, this takes a lot more research than simply picking 'Man United, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool' to win on a coupon. You know from experience that more time needs to be spent looking at defensive records, top goalscorers, current form etc when you place an under/overs multiple. This might be one of the reasons it's not publicised as much, because it's not as accessible for the casual punter.

[Skin]

Some Mon night success too

date event type bet result odds
Mon 08-11-17 19:45 Northampton - Leeds
Over/under Eng. FA Cup Over 2.5 goals Over 2.5 goals (2-5) 1.95
stake £50 return £97.50
date event type bet result odds
Mon 08-11-17 19:15 Kaiserslautern - Hansa Rostock
Over/under Ger. 2. Bundesliga Over 2.5 goals Over 2.5 goals (6-0) 1.95
stake £50 return £97.50

...Banked

[Skin]

Second round replays Tues. Should really leave alone but £35 to play with in my account..

Hartlepool v Brighton (3-3)
Cheltenham v Oldham (2-2)
2 £10 singles and a £5 double on over 2.5 goals.

Darlington v Droylsdon (0-0)
£5 stake on under 2.5 goals plus £5 treble.

[BarryWhiteRFC]

Ok, I tried to bet on the over 2.5 goals and they looked at me liked I asked for the odds of me having the bottle to s**t on the counter infront of them. However won £35 on an accumalater for the first time in about 2 years, so that made me a happy person! From just a quid as well! (thanks Kammy).

Anyway, just thought I'd let you all know.

[Skin]

Ok, I tried to bet on the over 2.5 goals and they looked at me liked I asked for the odds of me having the bottle to s**t on the counter infront of them. However won £35 on an accumalater for the first time in about 2 years, so that made me a happy person! From just a quid as well! (thanks Kammy).

Anyway, just thought I'd let you all know.

its a joke that they can't find the odds, maybe their staff have not been trained properly or even they don't have access to their intranet. They call the overs/unders market 'goal line'. Its definitely there. Saying that, next time ask them to ring through for the odds, useless pcunts. congrats on your 35/1 acca.