The Champions League Thread 2013/14

[TBM]

Arsenal can go out tonight if they lose 3-0 and Dortmund win, am I right

Long shot but that would be LOLworthy

Nope - if they lose by 3 then they go out, should Dortmund win. If Dortmund don't win then Arsenal are through

[genome]

That's what I said...

[genome]

So close

[TBM]

That's what I said...

Yeah i thought you said "through"

[No Fixed Abode]

Chelsea 1-0 Steaua Bucharest
Ba.

Groups winners with the best defensive record in The CL group stages.

[NewCorkSeth]

Chelsea 1-0 Steaua Bucharest
Ba.

Groups winners with the best defensive record in The CL group stages.

I suppose United and Athletico don't exist? Same goals for and against as United and they got more points than you. As do Athletico.

[soggy biscuit]

No idea how they think they are working this out but here it is anyway

[YateleyRoyal]

The English teams should pray to get Zenit in the next round. Utterly awful last night, really very very bad.

[soggy biscuit]

Not sure anyone would want to go to Saint Petersburg in February.

Just looked up the temps around that time and saw that 2 years ago February got down to -26C

[YateleyRoyal]

Not sure anyone would want to go to Saint Petersburg in February.

Just looked up the temps around that time and saw that 2 years ago February got down to -26C

Meh. Not bothered about that. They got done, and done very very easily, by an average Austria Vienna side. Lord knows what they would do if they came up against a 'proper' team.

[soggy biscuit]

Christ, footballers are a pampered lot.

[soggy biscuit]

lolz

[Ouroboros]

No idea how they think they are working this out but here it is anyway

Ok, I haven't been able to find anything online that explains this: why aren't the probabilities evenly split among all the possible opponents? I understand why the 0%s are in there, but the other variation...?

[buzzby]

[stealthpapes]

No idea how they think they are working this out but here it is anyway

various constrainst on who can play who.

The higher % for Arsenal, Schalke, Leverkusen and City in the Barcelona row is based on the fact that they can be drawn against a same-nation club in this round, so they're more likely to be still in the pot when the ball gets drawn (i.e they can effectively be drawn more than once) whereas Zenit, Olympiacos and Galatasaray don't have the constraint.

I guess they could have worked out the total number of possible draws (6000 odd? ) and then worked out the actual probabilities from that. Which would be so dull, that even I couldn't be arsed.

Checking the literature, try Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Volume 9, Issue 3, Pages 249–270, which I don't have access to.

[Ouroboros]

Good work papes.

[Platypuss]

The 14:15 is surely bollocks though isn't it?

13:00 Kick-off.
Scored in 85th minute.

[Sanguine]

The 14:15 is surely bollocks though isn't it?

13:00 Kick-off.
Scored in 85th minute.

They didn't play a full-game, this was the game that got suspended due to snow. Started at 32 minutes. 15 minutes for half-time would make the 85th minute 14:08, I think.

So still made up, if they started on time.

[Platypuss]

Indeed - I was factoring in the half hour already played. Perhaps they had an extra long half time?

[Pepe the Horseman]

He hasn't scored 17 Champions League goals either.