THE BETTING THREAD

[Sanguine]

Because he really fcuking needs £1000£(£*&$&^"^"!!!!!!!, remember?

[double d]

Because he really fcuking needs £1000£(£*&$&^"^"!!!!!!!, remember?

[Top Flight]

My four fold ACCA on bet365 for tonights matches.

Stake: £2
To return: £39.59

Sunderland v Everton - EVERTON @ 2.15
Empoli v Crotone - EMPOLI @ 1.66
Chelmsford v East Thurrock - CHELMSFORD @ 1.70
Southampton U23 v Reading U23 - READING U23 @ 3.25

Why Chelmsford v East Thurrock? And under23?

Chelmsford are going great guns in National League South. They are hitting form. They have won the last 5 games in succession, they have a good side. They have a couple of good strikers. It's a big derby down there in Essex. I think they'll turn East Thurrock over.

We have a top U23 side, full of good youngsters. We won impressively at Bristol Rovers. Southampton haven't been as impressive in their outings. I think, if we have a decent young side out, they'll get the result.

[jd82]

Lovely stuff TF - keep up the good work

[Top Flight]

Because he really fcuking needs £1000£(£*&$&^"^"!!!!!!!, remember?

Sanguine, if you look at the last bunch of bets that i have placed, I have not taken any risks. They were all controlled bets carefully selected. The stake sizes were low, the chance of the bets winning were all very good. A couple of the bets I got unlucky with but that is why I managed my risk. A couple of bets I got very lucky with. My account has progressed upwards. You can't say now that I am not following advice.

As my account size is growing, it's becoming easier to lay teams without taking big risks. Would you say that I am now following some good rules and staying within a system? I just have to control the psychological aspects of this.

Regarding Bet365, I actually don't think I will be able to make the grand on B365. You can never get good enough prices to be able to make consistent profits. The only reason B365 is still looking a little bit healthy was because I got lucky with an acca and I got lucky with the dogs. I am finding it really hard to get B365 moving forward. It is just sticking.

It's early days, but my lay strategy on Betfair does look like it can deliver consistent but steady progress if I am patient and manage it properly.

If I were to do the equivalent of a betfair lay on bet365 which is to cover a win and draw outcome on one of the teams the price offered by B365 is always sh*te. With those prices, my wins won't progress upon my bad calls. I will have to improve my ability to select winning outcomes.

[Sanguine]

I just have to control the psychological aspects of this.

Regarding Bet365, I actually don't think I will be able to make the grand on B365. You can never get good enough prices to be able to make consistent profits. The only reason B365 is still looking a little bit healthy was because I got lucky with an acca and I got lucky with the dogs. I am finding it really hard to get B365 moving forward. It is just sticking.

It's early days, but my lay strategy on Betfair does look like it can deliver consistent but steady progress if I am patient and manage it properly.

No, because whole section is all bullshit.
It isn't Bet365's fault that your account isn't growing. And it isn't your 'fault' either. Bet365 offer odds - if you were selecting value carefully, based on your analysis above, you wouldn't be betting with them at all.
The other bit you can't get your head around is that you are not winning on Betfair because your strategy is correct. You are winning on Betfair because your bets have won. One day those lay bets will start losing, and a couple of £30 liabilities will put a big hole in your account.
You can't seem to grasp that there is no 'way' to win money gambling, or we would all be doing it.

You are (in my view) trying to apply methods suited to market trading, to football, which has far more variables, far more uncertainties. Example - you can hold a diversified share portfolio that mitigates some of your risk. You could buy shares in McDonalds, and also buy shares in a healthy food chain. The likelihood is when one goes down, the other will go up. You can't do that with football, because events aren't linked. You can't put £20 on Reading and 'cover it' with £50 on Chelsea, because both could lose.

So, good luck, but I'd evaluate what you're trying to do here, and why.

[jd82]

Because he really fcuking needs £1000£(£*&$&^"^"!!!!!!!, remember?

Sanguine, if you look at the last bunch of bets that i have placed, I have not taken any risks. They were all controlled bets carefully selected. The stake sizes were low, the chance of the bets winning were all very good. A couple of the bets I got unlucky with but that is why I managed my risk. A couple of bets I got very lucky with. My account has progressed upwards. You can't say now that I am not following advice.

As my account size is growing, it's becoming easier to lay teams without taking big risks. Would you say that I am now following some good rules and staying within a system? I just have to control the psychological aspects of this.

Regarding Bet365, I actually don't think I will be able to make the grand on B365. You can never get good enough prices to be able to make consistent profits. The only reason B365 is still looking a little bit healthy was because I got lucky with an acca and I got lucky with the dogs. I am finding it really hard to get B365 moving forward. It is just sticking.

It's early days, but my lay strategy on Betfair does look like it can deliver consistent but steady progress if I am patient and manage it properly.

If I were to do the equivalent of a betfair lay on bet365 which is to cover a win and draw outcome on one of the teams the price offered by B365 is always sh*te. With those prices, my wins won't progress upon my bad calls. I will have to improve my ability to select winning outcomes.

One sentence shows your lack of basic understanding of betting IMO.

the rest of the post does nothing to convince me otherwise

[jd82]

I will have to improve my ability to select winning outcomes.

Now that is a betting strategy i can get behind!!

[Silver Fox]

Because he really fcuking needs £1000£(£*&$&^"^"!!!!!!!, remember?

He's just sat in front of his screen every night sweating and saying "must bet on something, anything" Not that he has a problem

[Top Flight]

Not at all Silver Fox. I am not desperate to bet. I am just doing a challenge. I want to turn £100 in to £1000 over the course of the football season. It's a good betting challenge. I started in July and I'm still in the game betting with the same £100 which has grown to £270 on Betfair and £190 after last night on Bet365.

I calculated where I need to be at the end of each month to remain on course to hit target. On Betfair, I need to have reached £274 by the end of September. At the moment I am on £270 so just £4 away. I just need to get one more bet right to be on track on Betfair. On Bet365, I need to have hit £219 by the end of September. At the moment, I am on £190 so just another £29 to go.

There is a lot of football on this month, so I don't need to bet on everything. I just need to make some good selections.

Last night I didn't bet on Betfair, but I placed three bets on Bet365. The first was an ACCA. I put £2 on Reading U23, Chelmsford, Empoli and Everton all winning. Reading went behind, so I did another ACCA. This time on Chelmsford, Empoli, Everton, Nuremberg, An Italian Serie B team and some other random match. I again staked £2. So my account went from £182 to £180 to £178. Then after 35 mins of the Everton game, I put £10 on an Everton win at 2.2. This single bet succeeded and I went from £168 to £190.

Now, I have to look at the betting opportunities for tonight. But, if it looks difficult to call or the prices offered don't work then I won't bet. I am not desperate to bet. I will make the right selections if they are available. If not, then I'll wait. The good thing is, I am right on track at the moment, so I don't need to do anything stupid.

One bet that I am thinking about for tonight is to lay PSG in their game at home to Arsenal. I don't think PSG are firing on all cylinders at the moment. I don't think PSG will win. They drew their last game against St Etienne at home. I would never trust Arsenal enough to win the game. But I think they have enough about them to come back on the Eurostar with some kind of positive result.

I can lay PSG off at even money. So I could risk a tenner to win a tenner if Arsenal draw or win. If I lose, I am still on £260 on Betfair and still well positioned to hit target this month.

[Zammo]

Had £20 on Everton last night at 23/20. Easy.

[Top Flight]

Well done Zammo

[Top Flight]

What we betting on tonight chaps?

[double d]

What we betting on tonight chaps?

Nothing. 3 weekends in a row of no wins so no betting for a month for me.

[Zammo]

What we betting on tonight chaps?

Not this.....

Sporting Life Accumulator
Back Norwich, Newcastle, Bristol City and Birmingham at 50/1

Norwich to beat Wigan
Didn't need to be at their best to win at the weekend and that could often be the case at Carrow Road, where if they do click they'll run riot against sides like Wigan, who've yet to pick up points on the road.

Newcastle to beat QPR
Impressive, important win at Derby on Saturday night sets the Sky Bet Championship favourites up perfectly for a clash with a QPR side yet to convince.

Bristol City to beat Sheffield Wednesday
Dominated their game at the weekend with 76% possession and 35 attempts on goal but still had to come from 2-0 down to force a draw with Rotherham. Lee Johnson's youthful side learning all the time and fancied to go well back in South Yorkshire.

Birmingham to beat Reading
On a roll at the moment with back-to-back wins over Norwich and Fulham and can make it three on the spin against a Reading side that is still getting to grips with Jaap Stam's new system.

[Winston Smith]

Was tempted to go for a poor team Vs worst team in the division double tonight with Leeds & Chester, but you know that just when you think Leeds can't get any worse, they do.

will probably steer clear tonight, can't see a lot of value anywhere tbh

[John Smith]

Put a bit of research into this one

[Top Flight]

Don't you think laying PSG at even money would be the best option for tonight? Low risk, fits money management rules and good chance of coming off.

[John Smith]

Don't you think laying PSG at even money would be the best option for tonight? Low risk, fits money management rules and good chance of coming off.

No, I bet a fiver a week so I need to bet high risk. Not too sure Dover will score tonight

[double d]

Top Flight i want to see you do some Accas.

I have been unlucky with mine. Last weeks I have had 1 team who were strong faves let me down. Tranmere and FGR noticeable ones.