THE BETTING THREAD

[Top Flight]

Don't you think laying PSG at even money would be the best option for tonight? Low risk, fits money management rules and good chance of coming off.

No, I bet a fiver a week so I need to bet high risk. Not too sure Dover will score tonight

They scored four against Forest Green on Saturday. I actually watched Dover instead of Utd/City & Celtic/Rangers on Saturday. Miller was on fire and Dover scored some excellent goals. I couldn't believe what I was seeing with Lafayette's goal and then Miller's hat-trick goal. I think they'll nick a goal at Dagenham tonight.

[Top Flight]

Top Flight i want to see you do some Accas.

I have been unlucky with mine. Last weeks I have had 1 team who were strong faves let me down. Tranmere and FGR noticeable ones.

I have been doing some accas. Only one of my accas has come in so far and that was the first one that I did. That gave me the bug to do some more. But I have been going riskier and riskier. Last night I did two risk accas.

I might do an acca based on my prediction league predictions for tonights championship games. I'll let you know what I come up with.

[Top Flight]

Double D, this one is just for you.

It is a 7 fold acca based on my predictions in this weeks prediction league.

At odds of 1382.4 / 1

Stake: £5
To return: £6912.01

Brighton v Huddersfield - DRAW @ 3.5
Derby v Ipswich - DRAW @ 3.6
Leeds v Blackburn - BLACKBURN @ 3.9
Norwich v Wigan - NORWICH @ 1.61
Reading v Birmingham - READING @ 2.15
Wolves v Barnsley - DRAW @ 3.6
QPR v Newcastle - NEWCASTLE @ 2.25

I hope I have a good Round 7 in the Prediction League tonight.

[Top Flight]

I think i will just leave it at that for tonights betting. I don't want to be checking my phone every five minutes at the Mad Stad tonight. I won't be checking it for this bet because it is extremely unlikely to come in.

[Top Flight]

I think i will just leave it at that for tonights betting. I don't want to be checking my phone every five minutes at the Mad Stad tonight. I won't be checking it for this bet because it is extremely unlikely to come in.

[LWJ]

Birmingham 14/5

[Silver Fox]

I think i will just leave it at that for tonights betting. I don't want to be checking my phone every five minutes at the Mad Stad tonight. I won't be checking it for this bet because it is extremely unlikely to come in.

Chinny reckon

[Winston Smith]

City, Roma, Inter, Villarreal. £5 returns £24.

[Winston Smith]

City, Spurs, Brentford, Bolton. £5 returns £42.

[Sanguine]

Please tell me TF stuck his bank on Maccabi Tel Aviv with 15 minutes left.

[double d]

Top Flight before i do any bets this weekend i want your full analysis of all leagues and what you think will happen. I want to do a few accas but unsure and you seem to be on a roll.

[Top Flight]

It's been a quiet week for me on the betting front. Tuesday I was at the Mad Stad and the only bet I placed that night was a losing 7 fold ACCA. So Bet365 dropped from £190 to £185 and there it has remained.

I took my kids to the park after school on Wednesday as the weather was so nice so didn't get a chance to look at the options for Wednesday evening so didn't place any bets. I knew Leicester would win at Brugge and I had a feeling Spurs would struggle against Monaco but I didn't bet on any of it.

Thursday was Europa League night. I felt Southampton would win and I felt that United would lose but again I didn't take advantage. The only bet that I did do on Thursday night was the Brazilian top flight. Fluminense were at home to Chapecoense. I decided to lay Fluminense off at 1.73. I took that bet on because I thought Fluminense were way too short at that price and it looked like a value bet.

Fluminense have won 10 games this season and have failed to win on 15 occassions. Chapecoense have only lost 6 games out of 25 this season drawing 10 so are clearly a difficult team to beat. Chapecoense were priced at 6.4 to win. Based on those stats, Fluminense have won only 40% of their games this season and Chapecoense have only lost 25% of their games this season. I thought laying off Fluminense at a price of 1.73 is excellent value. Chapecoense won the game 2-1 and so I made a £10 profit. The risk was just £7.30. Is this good betting Sanguine?

My Betfair account is now £279. Betfair is now ahead of target for September. I need to focus now on bringing Bet365 to target. Tonight we have Chelsea and Liverpool in action. I will have to decide around kick off time whether to bet on that game or I may even bet in play. Most likely I will avoid that game as I'm not sure the prices offer an opportunity there and we have a big weekend of football coming up so there will be plenty more opportunities to find value.

[Top Flight]

Top Flight before i do any bets this weekend i want your full analysis of all leagues and what you think will happen. I want to do a few accas but unsure and you seem to be on a roll.

My ACCA's have done appallingly badly. Only the first one came in. My last ACCA on Tuesday night was shockingly bad. I think I only got 1 or 2 results right out of the 7. From now on, I'm only going to do ACCA's when Reading are playing at home or an away match where I'm there. When I'm at a match I can't really keep watch of my bets so that is the best time to do ACCAs. Also, I might just do doubles or trebles or a 4 fold at the maximum. With a 7 fold, I literally have no chance even if the prize money, like on Tuesday night can be as much as £7000.

[Sanguine]

Given how much you know and that you have a feeling about every result that occurs, you'll reach your target easily. In fact, it's like printing money, isn't it?

[Top Flight]

One bet that I think is worth considering this weekend is our game away to Barnsley. I fancy us to get some kind of result in that match.

Barnsley have been impressive this season and have some excellent players Hamill and Hourihane in particular. They are off the back of a very impressive result away to Wolves but now they have to play us, a team that hogs the ball for 90 minutes and frustrates the hell out of you.

It will be interesting to see how Barnsley cope with that. They can roll over other teams but against us they will be coming up against a completely different style of football and may struggle.

Being the home side and being in top form they are favourites and priced at 2.36. I would have liked their price to be shorter than that to be honest. I think we'll get a draw up there and we may even nick it like we did at Cardiff.

The bet would be to lay Barnsley at 2.36. £13.60 at risk for a £10 profit if Reading draw or win.

[Silver Fox]

Given how much you know and that you have a feeling about every result that occurs, you'll reach your target easily. In fact, it's like printing money, isn't it?

I really can't work out how his bet365 account goes down!

[Sanguine]

The bet would be to lay Barnsley at 2.36. £13.60 at risk for a £10 profit if Reading draw or win.

If you think Barnsley are priced too high, why are you laying them? If you think they should be, say, 1.90, then you back them or lay Reading, right?

[Top Flight]

I guess that's why I'm not 100% sure and haven't placed the bet yet. If Barnsley were 1.9 I would place the bet without hesitation. It was like last night's Brazilian game. There is no way Fluminense should have been as short as 1.73 to win their match when they have only won 40% of their games this season and Chapecoense have lost only 25% of theirs matches. I saw an opportunity there and grabbed it.

Sanguine, you must now realise that I don't have a problem. I have hardly bet this week. The bets I have made have been taken when an opportunity has arisen where the price doesn't reflect the reality. Where a team is shorter than they should be.

[jd82]

[Top Flight]

Also Sanguine, my bets are very much within the risk management rules now. Your message has definitely hit home. Even on the Betfair lay, I am not risking more than a tenner. I am looking at the teams who are priced too short at the 1.6 / 1.7 / 1.8 / 1.9 range where they should really be a 2.3 or a 2.4 or a 2.5.

If you look at the teams I have layed on Betfair recently they are:

Fluminense at 1.73
Gremio at 2.32 (This was higher because Gremio were playing league leaders Palmeiras so I risked a bit more on this one. Still they were too short against the league leaders)
Cruzeiro at 1.8
Ath Bilbao at 1.4
Ebbsfleet at 1.65 (This one I probably misjudged. Ebbsfleet were worth their short price)
Peterborough at 1.9
Fulham at 1.9
Cambridge at 3.8 (Cambridge were bottom and they faced Plymouth away from home who are near the top - longer price, worth the risk)

I think I am sticking within the rules now. Don't you agree?