Summer 2023 Transfer Speculation

[Hound]

No it’s probably not fair and he’s been great for the club but he’s injury prone, expensive and isn’t scoring goals

If he turns round his form (Saturday was an start) and plays like he did 2 years ago (when he was injured a lot as well) then we can think again.

But otherwise not what we need at this point in time

[SCIAG]

Brentford use expected goals as part of their recruitment strategy. If they had two strikers almost identical in every way that fit their style, one scored 12 but had an expected goals of 8 and one who scored 6 but had an expected goals of 10, they'd go for the second striker as he'd likely cost less and would be expected to score more goals in their side.

Are you sure that’s right?

It suggests Brentford would rather have a striker who misses chances than one who takes them.

[blythspartan]

I hope we let the likes of Meite and Joao just leave at the end of the season. I’d like us to offer better longer term deals to players like Carson, Craig, NGW, Mbengue and Abrefa etc.

Also, I’d like to see us take a punt on players like Langstaff at Notts County. I’ve seen him play twice this season. He’s not the biggest striker in the world but his movement is very clever. He reminds me a bit of Curo.

At times we have seen great performances from Meite, Joao and Ejaria but for a lot of the time they have been mediocre at best. Tbf that might be a bit harsh on the first two.

Anyway, it’s time for the club to move forward and invest in younger players and seasoned pros who’ll give you a 7/10 in most games. I believe from the recruitment we are seeing in the under 21s that’s probably the plan. I am really looking forward to next season and a fresh start.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Brentford use expected goals as part of their recruitment strategy. If they had two strikers almost identical in every way that fit their style, one scored 12 but had an expected goals of 8 and one who scored 6 but had an expected goals of 10, they'd go for the second striker as he'd likely cost less and would be expected to score more goals in their side.

Are you sure that’s right?

It suggests Brentford would rather have a striker who misses chances than one who takes them.

Yes. They do it because they are cheaper options and, if the players' expected goals is higher, then you'd be looking at why they aren't scoring what they are expecting, it might be that they can fit a certain player into their play style that improves the team and fits the style.

It's obviously not every signing that works out like that, of course Toney was scoring a lot of goals for Peterborough at the time for example, however that's how their recruitment look at things. That's how they get players on the cheap and have been known to sell on for big profits.

[Hound]

I hope we let the likes of Meite and Joao just leave at the end of the season. I’d like us to offer better longer term deals to players like Carson, Craig, NGW, Mbengue and Abrefa etc.

Also, I’d like to see us take a punt on players like Langstaff at Notts County. I’ve seen him play twice this season. He’s not the biggest striker in the world but his movement is very clever. He reminds me a bit of Curo.

At times we have seen great performances from Meite, Joao and Ejaria but for a lot of the time they have been mediocre at best. Tbf that might be a bit harsh on the first two.

Anyway, it’s time for the club to move forward and invest in younger players and seasoned pros who’ll give you a 7/10 in most games. I believe from the recruitment we are seeing in the under 21s that’s probably the plan. I am really looking forward to next season and a fresh start.

Basically that - though again Ejaria was decent for us as well up until the last two years - same as Meite really

All three are now injury prone, costly and aren’t given VFM. Easy to let Meite and Joao go, probably a lot less easy to see Ejaria go this season - unless we loan and pay a proportion of wages

All three have been part of some good times but time to look forward

[NathStPaul]

I hope we let the likes of Meite and Joao just leave at the end of the season. I’d like us to offer better longer term deals to players like Carson, Craig, NGW, Mbengue and Abrefa etc.

Also, I’d like to see us take a punt on players like Langstaff at Notts County. I’ve seen him play twice this season. He’s not the biggest striker in the world but his movement is very clever. He reminds me a bit of Curo.

At times we have seen great performances from Meite, Joao and Ejaria but for a lot of the time they have been mediocre at best. Tbf that might be a bit harsh on the first two.

Anyway, it’s time for the club to move forward and invest in younger players and seasoned pros who’ll give you a 7/10 in most games. I believe from the recruitment we are seeing in the under 21s that’s probably the plan. I am really looking forward to next season and a fresh start.

Basically that - though again Ejaria was decent for us as well up until the last two years - same as Meite really

All three are now injury prone, costly and aren’t given VFM. Easy to let Meite and Joao go, probably a lot less easy to see Ejaria go this season - unless we loan and pay a proportion of wages

All three have been part of some good times but time to look forward

This is a sensible and prudent approach imo. This summer is a great opportunity for a big reset at the club, just hope we have already identified suitable transfer targets.

Quite excited to see where it all goes in the summer break.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

I hope we let the likes of Meite and Joao just leave at the end of the season. I’d like us to offer better longer term deals to players like Carson, Craig, NGW, Mbengue and Abrefa etc.

Also, I’d like to see us take a punt on players like Langstaff at Notts County. I’ve seen him play twice this season. He’s not the biggest striker in the world but his movement is very clever. He reminds me a bit of Curo.

At times we have seen great performances from Meite, Joao and Ejaria but for a lot of the time they have been mediocre at best. Tbf that might be a bit harsh on the first two.

Anyway, it’s time for the club to move forward and invest in younger players and seasoned pros who’ll give you a 7/10 in most games. I believe from the recruitment we are seeing in the under 21s that’s probably the plan. I am really looking forward to next season and a fresh start.

Basically that - though again Ejaria was decent for us as well up until the last two years - same as Meite really

All three are now injury prone, costly and aren’t given VFM. Easy to let Meite and Joao go, probably a lot less easy to see Ejaria go this season - unless we loan and pay a proportion of wages

All three have been part of some good times but time to look forward

Not to mention it will free up around £45k a week on wages if we move them 3 on, if Puscas moves that will be another £15k a week plus a transfer fee for him and Moore's contract is expiring, so those 5 players alone will be saving us £90k a week plus a couple of million for Puscas should he move on if Genoa are promoted this season, probably looking closer to £100k a week we've saved with the rest that will be released as well (may be a small transfer fee for Ejaria if he moves on permanently as well).

So definitely a good grounding to work from providing all that comes off which seems quite likely, the only difficulty might be moving on Ejaria this summer, but the rest either will happen or is likely/highly likely to happen in the case of Puscas, Joao, Meite etc.

Plenty of clubs will be releasing players this summer, so a lot of players in the market to go for, plenty of scope for some loans, hopefully some of our most promising youngsters can be used as part of the squad next season and there will be a lot more scope for a couple of players that will command transfer fees as well as offering more competitive wages as well. Overall, assuming we come out of restrictions, the picture looks positive.

[Snowflake Royal]

Wouldn’t break the bank to keep Meite, but would offer him a deal.

He is limited, but he still can be quality and we run the risk of losing too much continuity.

You look at this season and our entire midfield is different. And it could be again next season. We're in danger of that also being an almost entirely new attack.

[SCIAG]

Brentford use expected goals as part of their recruitment strategy. If they had two strikers almost identical in every way that fit their style, one scored 12 but had an expected goals of 8 and one who scored 6 but had an expected goals of 10, they'd go for the second striker as he'd likely cost less and would be expected to score more goals in their side.

Are you sure that’s right?

It suggests Brentford would rather have a striker who misses chances than one who takes them.

Yes. They do it because they are cheaper options and, if the players' expected goals is higher, then you'd be looking at why they aren't scoring what they are expecting, it might be that they can fit a certain player into their play style that improves the team and fits the style.

It's obviously not every signing that works out like that, of course Toney was scoring a lot of goals for Peterborough at the time for example, however that's how their recruitment look at things. That's how they get players on the cheap and have been known to sell on for big profits.

Do you have a source for that? It seems to me like you're confused about what "expected goals" means.

I suspect what they actually do is that if two players have both scored 12 goals, they would prefer the one who has an XG of 10 over the one who has an XG of 14, while also considering how they fit into their style of play. They're not going to deliberately sign players who are missing a lot of chances.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Are you sure that’s right?

It suggests Brentford would rather have a striker who misses chances than one who takes them.

Yes. They do it because they are cheaper options and, if the players' expected goals is higher, then you'd be looking at why they aren't scoring what they are expecting, it might be that they can fit a certain player into their play style that improves the team and fits the style.

It's obviously not every signing that works out like that, of course Toney was scoring a lot of goals for Peterborough at the time for example, however that's how their recruitment look at things. That's how they get players on the cheap and have been known to sell on for big profits.

Do you have a source for that? It seems to me like you're confused about what "expected goals" means.

I suspect what they actually do is that if two players have both scored 12 goals, they would prefer the one who has an XG of 10 over the one who has an XG of 14, while also considering how they fit into their style of play. They're not going to deliberately sign players who are missing a lot of chances.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrwwVoD1RQQ&t=126s

This explains it well. Obviously it's not just based on that, it's also based on player output and squad composition alongside development of players. It sounds quite simple but obviously putting it in practice is difficult.

[Royal_jimmy]

I hope we let the likes of Meite and Joao just leave at the end of the season. I’d like us to offer better longer term deals to players like Carson, Craig, NGW, Mbengue and Abrefa etc.

Also, I’d like to see us take a punt on players like Langstaff at Notts County. I’ve seen him play twice this season. He’s not the biggest striker in the world but his movement is very clever. He reminds me a bit of Curo.

At times we have seen great performances from Meite, Joao and Ejaria but for a lot of the time they have been mediocre at best. Tbf that might be a bit harsh on the first two.

Anyway, it’s time for the club to move forward and invest in younger players and seasoned pros who’ll give you a 7/10 in most games. I believe from the recruitment we are seeing in the under 21s that’s probably the plan. I am really looking forward to next season and a fresh start.

Basically that - though again Ejaria was decent for us as well up until the last two years - same as Meite really

All three are now injury prone, costly and aren’t given VFM. Easy to let Meite and Joao go, probably a lot less easy to see Ejaria go this season - unless we loan and pay a proportion of wages

All three have been part of some good times but time to look forward

Not to mention it will free up around £45k a week on wages if we move them 3 on, if Puscas moves that will be another £15k a week plus a transfer fee for him and Moore's contract is expiring, so those 5 players alone will be saving us £90k a week plus a couple of million for Puscas should he move on if Genoa are promoted this season, probably looking closer to £100k a week we've saved with the rest that will be released as well (may be a small transfer fee for Ejaria if he moves on permanently as well).

So definitely a good grounding to work from providing all that comes off which seems quite likely, the only difficulty might be moving on Ejaria this summer, but the rest either will happen or is likely/highly likely to happen in the case of Puscas, Joao, Meite etc.

Plenty of clubs will be releasing players this summer, so a lot of players in the market to go for, plenty of scope for some loans, hopefully some of our most promising youngsters can be used as part of the squad next season and there will be a lot more scope for a couple of players that will command transfer fees as well as offering more competitive wages as well. Overall, assuming we come out of restrictions, the picture looks positive.

Whilst this sounds good in terms of cost saving, it's risky having a huge turnover of players like this. It could easily go the other way and we do an Ipswich if there's no plan. But yes we should see the club hopefully run more sensibly and we'll see our wage bill reduced which is needed. Doesn't mean we'll sign the quality needed to compete at this level.

[Royal_jimmy]

Wouldn’t break the bank to keep Meite, but would offer him a deal.

He is limited, but he still can be quality and we run the risk of losing too much continuity.

You look at this season and our entire midfield is different. And it could be again next season. We're in danger of that also being an almost entirely new attack.

Think he deserves around £12k a week. Whether he'd take that who knows. João will definitely leave, Moore if he played a bit and shows he still has it I'd offer a new deal on 25% of the wage he was on. Not sure he'd get lots of interest after doing little for us for so long. Again after everything that's happened I wouldn't blame him if he stuck 2 fingers at the club and left.

[Hound]

Wouldn’t break the bank to keep Meite, but would offer him a deal.

He is limited, but he still can be quality and we run the risk of losing too much continuity.

You look at this season and our entire midfield is different. And it could be again next season. We're in danger of that also being an almost entirely new attack.

Think he deserves around £12k a week. Whether he'd take that who knows. João will definitely leave, Moore if he played a bit and shows he still has it I'd offer a new deal on 25% of the wage he was on. Not sure he'd get lots of interest after doing little for us for so long. Again after everything that's happened I wouldn't blame him if he stuck 2 fingers at the club and left.

Where was he least night? Injured again or dropped?

[Snowflake Royal]

Wouldn’t break the bank to keep Meite, but would offer him a deal.

He is limited, but he still can be quality and we run the risk of losing too much continuity.

You look at this season and our entire midfield is different. And it could be again next season. We're in danger of that also being an almost entirely new attack.

Think he deserves around £12k a week. Whether he'd take that who knows. João will definitely leave, Moore if he played a bit and shows he still has it I'd offer a new deal on 25% of the wage he was on. Not sure he'd get lots of interest after doing little for us for so long. Again after everything that's happened I wouldn't blame him if he stuck 2 fingers at the club and left.

Where was he least night? Injured again or dropped?

Injured would be disappointing.
Dropped would show very poor management from Ince.

Yes he wasn’t good at boro, but who was, and he tore Blackpool apart.

I get Ince didn’t want to play wide forwards so not starting him, but dropping him if he wasn't injured is just stupid.

[morganb]

Think he deserves around £12k a week. Whether he'd take that who knows. João will definitely leave, Moore if he played a bit and shows he still has it I'd offer a new deal on 25% of the wage he was on. Not sure he'd get lots of interest after doing little for us for so long. Again after everything that's happened I wouldn't blame him if he stuck 2 fingers at the club and left.

Where was he least night? Injured again or dropped?

Injured would be disappointing.
Dropped would show very poor management from Ince.

Yes he wasn’t good at boro, but who was, and he tore Blackpool apart.

I get Ince didn’t want to play wide forwards so not starting him, but dropping him if he wasn't injured is just stupid.

Ince on Meite: "He's injured. Not sure what it's going to be, three, four weeks. That's another blow to us. He was just finding his feet and playing well."

https://mobile.twitter.com/JmlJourno/st ... 5636275202

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Where was he least night? Injured again or dropped?

Injured would be disappointing.
Dropped would show very poor management from Ince.

Yes he wasn’t good at boro, but who was, and he tore Blackpool apart.

I get Ince didn’t want to play wide forwards so not starting him, but dropping him if he wasn't injured is just stupid.

Ince on Meite: "He's injured. Not sure what it's going to be, three, four weeks. That's another blow to us. He was just finding his feet and playing well."

https://mobile.twitter.com/JmlJourno/st ... 5636275202

A big potential source of goals gone for us then, good thing there is an International break coming so he doesn't miss a game or two in that period. Could use him back for the Easter fixtures though.

[Snowflake Royal]

Should see Azeez start in his place in a front 3 any time we play anyone we don't expect to be completely dominated by and aim for a win.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Should do, although I actually think it will give Ince more of an excuse to play 2 up top, usually in a 5-3-2. If we play a 4-4-2, he could do a job though as well which could be our best formation at the moment.

[Snowflake Royal]

We should certainly absolutely not see Azeez at wing back again.

[Fezza]

If we're getting smashed with another 6 point deduction won't we be under embargo again in the summer? Presumably if we've failed to do as we were told we'll still be under the EFL's boot for another year?