Safety Points (Again - But New Slant)!

[Crasher]

Anyone else note that of the bottom 9 teams we have to play

6 at the Mad stad (Watford, SheffU, Wigan, Fulham, Villa and Newky),
2 away (Boro and Charlton) and
we've done the the double over the 'ammers.

With Sheff U, Wigan, City, Villa and Boro in the next 5

I can see us getting 12 pts from these games. so we would be safe by end of Feb.

Nice.

No.
We can only be safe after six more games (ie after 3rd March).
Winning our next six, which includes the one at the Emirates.
Wonderful birthday presi for me (12th March).

Hey, me too!

Well, safe in my mind. 26th March me. (40 )
15th My son (1 )

For me its 17th March, Pompey at home - and i'll be 40 as well
...now where did i put the Guiness

[Royal Jelly]

The second table - over what period of games is it taken as "recent"?

No more than 8 games, as Wigan are already on 22 points.

Well spotted! So effectively this table reckons that Wigan aren't going to get another point all season?

Well how far back do you want to take "current" form?

I just wondered as there was no hint as to the number of games on the chart; if it had been 2 or 3 it would have been to few, any more than 8 too many. 5 would show the trend, but its still a pretty rough and ready comparison as all it is is statistical in concept and doesn't take into account who is left to be played by each club, with a weigting based on whether its home or away, and that teams relative position to you currently.

Having studied this table religiously during previous promotion chasing seasons (except the last one obviously), I can exclusively confirm that "current form" in their calculations is the last 8 matches, regardless of who or where they were playing.

[Spirit of Elm Park]

For me its 17th March, Pompey at home - and i'll be 40 as well
...now where did i put the Guiness

Taking everything into account, this game could have massive significance on european qualification.

Believe!

[Berthwaite]

The first milestone is only four away, when Watford will not be able to overtake MU. Currently the available spread of points is:



The light yellow is Reading's spread, red is relegation safety, green is cut-off for still being able to win the league

This is a brilliant way of presenting the possibilities and deserves to be in a sticky thread of its own.

[Platypuss]

So effectively this table reckons that Wigan aren't going to get another point all season?

Well how far back do you want to take "current" form?

I just wondered as there was no hint as to the number of games on the chart; if it had been 2 or 3 it would have been to few, any more than 8 too many. 5 would show the trend, but its still a pretty rough and ready comparison as all it is is statistical in concept and doesn't take into account who is left to be played by each club, with a weigting based on whether its home or away, and that teams relative position to you currently.

But the point is that any forecast based on current form will show Wigan getting no more points!

[T.R.O.L.I.]

So effectively this table reckons that Wigan aren't going to get another point all season?

Well how far back do you want to take "current" form?

I just wondered as there was no hint as to the number of games on the chart; if it had been 2 or 3 it would have been to few, any more than 8 too many. 5 would show the trend, but its still a pretty rough and ready comparison as all it is is statistical in concept and doesn't take into account who is left to be played by each club, with a weigting based on whether its home or away, and that teams relative position to you currently.

But the point is that any forecast based on current form will show Wigan getting no more points!

Which would be nice.

[Mr Angry]

So effectively this table reckons that Wigan aren't going to get another point all season?

Well how far back do you want to take "current" form?

I just wondered as there was no hint as to the number of games on the chart; if it had been 2 or 3 it would have been to few, any more than 8 too many. 5 would show the trend, but its still a pretty rough and ready comparison as all it is is statistical in concept and doesn't take into account who is left to be played by each club, with a weigting based on whether its home or away, and that teams relative position to you currently.

But the point is that any forecast based on current form will show Wigan getting no more points!

But thats the point I was making; that it is merely a crude statistical extrapolation of current results and nothing more. No-one seriously expects Wigan to get no more points do they?

In the past posters have put up a prediction spreadsheet where you can say "Reading will beat Wigan, man Utd will beat Watford" etc etc, and that then comes up with your predicted final table.

THAT could be of interest from here on in if anyone has access to something like it?

[T.R.O.L.I.]

Nope, but I can but dream

[Mr Angry]

Nope, but I can but dream

You are an evil man and will be sent to Pie eaters hell!!

[T.R.O.L.I.]

Nope, but I can but dream

You are an evil man and will be sent to Pie eaters hell!!

Just don't make me live in one of their mud huts

[Royal Jelly]

So effectively this table reckons that Wigan aren't going to get another point all season?

Well how far back do you want to take "current" form?

I just wondered as there was no hint as to the number of games on the chart; if it had been 2 or 3 it would have been to few, any more than 8 too many. 5 would show the trend, but its still a pretty rough and ready comparison as all it is is statistical in concept and doesn't take into account who is left to be played by each club, with a weigting based on whether its home or away, and that teams relative position to you currently.

But the point is that any forecast based on current form will show Wigan getting no more points!

But thats the point I was making; that it is merely a crude statistical extrapolation of current results and nothing more. No-one seriously expects Wigan to get no more points do they?

In the past posters have put up a prediction spreadsheet where you can say "Reading will beat Wigan, man Utd will beat Watford" etc etc, and that then comes up with your predicted final table.

THAT could be of interest from here on in if anyone has access to something like it?

If you can be bothered to do it:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/footbal ... efault.stm
should be just what you're after

[Stranded]

Had a bit of time to kill so I had a go at the predictor:

1 Man Utd P38 Pts 88 GD 57
---------------------------------
2. Chelsea P38 Pts 88 GD 42
3. Liverpool P38 Pts 81 GD 43
4. Arsenal P38 Pts 79 GD 42
----------------------------------
5. Bolton P38 Pts 64 GD 7
6. Reading P38 Pts 58 GD 5
----------------------------------
7. Newcastle P38 Pts 58 GD 4
8. Tottenham P38 Pts 56 GD 4
9. Portsmouth P38 Pts 53 GD 9
10. Everton P38 Pts 49 GD 3
11. Blackburn P38 Pts 45 GD -10
12. Middlesboro P38 Pts 43 GD -5
13. Aston Villa P38 Pts 43 GD -11
14. Man City P38 Pts 40 GD -15
15. Fulham P38 Pts 40 GD -22
16. Sheff Utd P38 Pts 35 GD -29
17. West Ham P38 Pts 32 GD -28
---------------------------------------
18. Wigan P38 Pts 32 GD -28
19. Charlton P38 Pts 31 GD -35
20. Watford P38 Pts 26 GD -33

As you can see, have Man Utd winning the title on goal difference with Wigan going down on goals scored!!

We finish in the UEFA cup spots on GD thanks to a last day draw at Blackburn from a fast finishing Newcastle.

If the end of the season turns out like that, will be a bloody exciting finish.

[Polyethylene]

Points to safety is 23. The quickest relegation would no longer be possible would be four weeks (four reading wins, four loses for each of the bottom three)

[Gav]

Points to safety is 23. The quickest relegation would no longer be possible would be four weeks (four reading wins, four loses for each of the bottom three)

Just for convience's sake, could you stick a blue 'top 6' line on?

Great chart, btw

[Millsy]

Watch it strap - you are being out-strapped.

[kingthor]

At this point the focus should be on Europe. We are in position to make a run, and our schedule is easier this half than it was last half, plus our squad is more deep (even with the loss of Sonko). We are in great shape.

[Polyethylene]

As requested, I've added a blue line to show who can still finish top six. I've split the line; for those below 6th it shows if they can still finish in the top six. For 1st to 6th, it shows if they're safe from dropping out of the top six.



I've also done some quick maths; at season-long point accumulation rates; Reading will be beyond the reach of Watford, Charlton and West Ham in six games. At last-eight-games accumulation rates, safety will be in seven games.

(just spotted the graphs slightly wrong, the top blue line should be based on Everton's max possible points rather than ours.)

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Maximum deduction of 6, with the win at Eastlands and WHU/Charlton/Watford all losing.

The number is now down to 17 with a dozen left to play; safety possible (best case) three games out.

[shadesrwrf]

I don't care what anybody else says, that's us safe.

[higher]

With you on that shades.Sod the maths.