Who Will Go Down - Last 4 matches.

[Big Ern]

Wigans home form has been whats got they out of trouble this season, and Steve Bruce has done a great job.I can't see us getting anything against them at their place.

Totenham at home doesnt fill me with great joy either. I have the same feel ing about that game as I did a few years back when we lost 2-1 at home to Wolves on the back of beating Sunderland away 2-1. Winning that game would have given us a great chance at the playoffs. A lot of desperate hope before the game, and even more when we took the lead, but can see Spurs winning that as well, requiring us to go to Derby needing a victory and other teams to do us a favor, neither of which will happen.

[Royal Rother]

You are such a tediously boring and negative lunk.

[Big Ern]

You are such a tediously negative lunk.

With regards to the negative part, then I would happily be proved wrong at the end of the season, and eat my hat /humble pie etc With regards to being tedious and a lunk, then I have no comeback on that.

But above all, yet another well argumented post from RR. Where would we be without his insight....probaly just a forum of people throwing insults at each other.

[woodley_royal_124]

Well I voted Birmingham and Fulham BUT I admit my greatest fears will be confirmed after the Tottenham home match - that will be the decider; I don't think going to Derby will help at all. If we can just revive some confidence and start knocking in goals then there's hope but it's got to be right now !!!! Steve Coppell, are you reading this because your current team need to do something about it ?

[Arch]

As Dirk Gently suggested several weeks ago, it really looks like 36 point is the magic number. I think next week we're likely to be as you were with all four contenders losing.

Bolton: on a two-game run of good form (even we've had those), but Spurs' shocking away performances belie the fact that they are dynamite at home with 45 goals. Bolton are not the team to exploit their defensive weakness at WHL, having only scored 11 away.
Reading: the stats and the form say Wigan win.
Birmingham: paradoxically the best chance to win of the four against Liverpool, but the Reds comfy win over Fulham without Gerrard or Torres suggests Liverpool are favourites.
Fulham: despite a diabolical 2008, Man City are still in the frame for Europe and looked today like they mean to try - Sven's job depends on it. Fulham won't enjoy a second happy away day in succession.

The nest week, I expect Bolton to beat Sunderland to go to 35 points, and the Fulham-Brum Game could go any way. If the Blues win they have 34.

Man U did us a huge favour by letting Chelsea back in yesterday, and Chelsea are still in the running on the last day, they'll beat Bolton. Birmingham have a tough game against Blackburn. They could win that and the Fulham game and reach 37 but the higher probability is the best they'll do is win one, draw one leaving them on 35.

So by this expert analysis, at least two of Fulham, Bolton and Birmingham will have no more than 35, but quite likely that's what two of them will have. Thus, we need one win and one draw. We must get at least a point from our next two games to have chance on the last day. Whether we are capable is entirely another debate.

[Stranded]

I think the Brum thrashing yesterday was a great result for us. If they'd only been beat say 2-1 then they would have been able to take something from the game.

To be stuffed by your local rivals and have Zarate pull a strop, will dent their confidence further going into a tough game v Liverpool. I anticipate a home win there. If Fulham lose/draw at Man City then they will go in to the home game V Brum in last chance saloon (assuming that one of Bolton/Us lose next week) so I will expect them to win that one.

I think Brum will hit no more than 34 points and Fulham 31 at best. Meaning that one win somewhere will see us stay up with 35.

[The whole year inn]

I think the Brum thrashing yesterday was a great result for us. If they'd only been beat say 2-1 then they would have been able to take something from the game.

To be stuffed by your local rivals and have Zarate pull a strop, will dent their confidence further going into a tough game v Liverpool. I anticipate a home win there

What would it have taken for you to think Liverpool may win this weekend?

[Stranded]

I think the Brum thrashing yesterday was a great result for us. If they'd only been beat say 2-1 then they would have been able to take something from the game.

To be stuffed by your local rivals and have Zarate pull a strop, will dent their confidence further going into a tough game v Liverpool. I anticipate a home win there

What would it have taken for you to think Liverpool may win this weekend?

Sorry meant away win, it's Monday morning after all.

[The whole year inn]

Thats what I thought, for a moment there I thought Brum were at Anfield this Sat

[andrew1957]

As Dirk Gently suggested several weeks ago, it really looks like 36 point is the magic number. I think next week we're likely to be as you were with all four contenders losing.

Bolton: on a two-game run of good form (even we've had those), but Spurs' shocking away performances belie the fact that they are dynamite at home with 45 goals. Bolton are not the team to exploit their defensive weakness at WHL, having only scored 11 away.
Reading: the stats and the form say Wigan win.
Birmingham: paradoxically the best chance to win of the four against Liverpool, but the Reds comfy win over Fulham without Gerrard or Torres suggests Liverpool are favourites.
Fulham: despite a diabolical 2008, Man City are still in the frame for Europe and looked today like they mean to try - Sven's job depends on it. Fulham won't enjoy a second happy away day in succession.

The nest week, I expect Bolton to beat Sunderland to go to 35 points, and the Fulham-Brum Game could go any way. If the Blues win they have 34.

Man U did us a huge favour by letting Chelsea back in yesterday, and Chelsea are still in the running on the last day, they'll beat Bolton. Birmingham have a tough game against Blackburn. They could win that and the Fulham game and reach 37 but the higher probability is the best they'll do is win one, draw one leaving them on 35.

So by this expert analysis, at least two of Fulham, Bolton and Birmingham will have no more than 35, but quite likely that's what two of them will have. Thus, we need one win and one draw. We must get at least a point from our next two games to have chance on the last day. Whether we are capable is entirely another debate.

I think you are about spot on. We will either need 3 or 4 points - probably 4 to be sure. I fully expect us to do it. A point at Wigan and a win against Spurs could make us safe before the Derby game - possibly!

[Stranded]

In an ideal world, a 1-0 win a la the one at Boro at Wigan next week, together with a Brum home defeat to Liverpool will see us all but safe with a 4pt gap and 6 to play for.

[chilipepper91]

In an ideal world, a 1-0 win a la the one at Boro at Wigan next week, together with a Brum home defeat to Liverpool will see us all but safe with a 4pt gap and 6 to play for.

Then Brum get all their points deducted for financial irregularities (or whatever it was...)

[Hoop Blah]

With the unpredictability of Reading, anything is possible. How we can put in a better performance (although not by much) against Arsenal as opposed to Fulham is beyond me...

Whats been unpredictable about Reading in 2008? It's been pretty easy to predict we'll be all at sea at the back, toothless upfront and destined to lose without putting up too much of a fight (a couple of games apart that is).

We've played 15 games, lost 11, drawn 1 and won three.

I didn't expect Bolton to have dragged themselves out of it as they have right now, but it's impossible to predict who of us, Birmingham and Bolton are going to be left in that final position. Right now I can't see us getting another point because we just look like an absolute mess whereas at least Birmingham and Bolton seem to have a bit of fight and bottle about them (although that thrashing yesterday could really dent the Brummies morale).

[Stranded]

That's the thing though, you mention that Brum have some fight the day after they capitulate in the one game above all others that they wouldn't want to capitulate in, they now have to try and turn it round against an in form (regardless of starting XI) Liverpool.

There seemed to be a bit more fight about us on Saturday despite never really pushing an Arsenal team back to it's best. The fight was there prior to the Newcastle game and I hope that we see some more of it at the weekend..

[Hoop Blah]

I didn't watch the game yesterday but I was talking in general terms from what I've seen recently, and I reckon their results over the last month or so probably bear that out to a certain extent.

I'm hoping that, as you suggested, that result yesterday will knock the stuffing out of them but before that they've looked like a side that's been a lot more resilliant and creative than us and a lot more likely than us to get a result. The one thing I did notice from the goals was that McFadden was back in the side. That might just be the catalyst they need to pick up those vital points we both need at the moment.

[TFF]

We are, without doubt, the worst side in the league on current form.

Including Derby.

Stevie Coppell bloody well better have a magic hat 'cause he's gonna need to pull some rabbits out in training this week.

[Stranded]

We are, without doubt, the worst side in the league on current form.

Including Derby.

Stevie Coppell bloody well better have a magic hat 'cause he's gonna need to pull some rabbits out in training this week.

Well according to the actual stats:

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/oform.html

On current form we are currently better than Brum, Fulham, Boro, Bolton, West Ham and Derby.

If that stays the same for the next 3 games then we're laughing.

[Royal Rother]

Never let actual stats get in the way of a good bit of knee-jerking!

[Alan Partridge]

We are, without doubt, the worst side in the league on current form.

Including Derby.

Stevie Coppell bloody well better have a magic hat 'cause he's gonna need to pull some rabbits out in training this week.

Well according to the actual stats:

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/oform.html

On current form we are currently better than Brum, Fulham, Boro, Bolton, West Ham and Derby.

If that stays the same for the next 3 games then we're laughing.

Well it depends how you look at it, over the last 7 or 8, then midway, over the last 3 - the worst. If that carries on for the next 3 then their won't be a lot of laughing!

It's going to be very toight that's for sure. 1 win from either ourselves or Birmigham could send the other down.

[Stranded]

We are, without doubt, the worst side in the league on current form.

Including Derby.

Stevie Coppell bloody well better have a magic hat 'cause he's gonna need to pull some rabbits out in training this week.

Well according to the actual stats:

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/oform.html

On current form we are currently better than Brum, Fulham, Boro, Bolton, West Ham and Derby.

If that stays the same for the next 3 games then we're laughing.

Well it depends how you look at it, over the last 7 or 8, then midway, over the last 3 - the worst. If that carries on for the next 3 then their won't be a lot of laughing!

It's going to be very toight that's for sure. 1 win from either ourselves or Birmigham could send the other down.

Indeed, that's stats for you, although looking at form over say 3 games is a fairly pointless stat. In fact form is full stop, especially at this point of the season.

The only form guide that matters is that over 35 games we are 17th. If over 38 games we are at least 17th then we'll have done enough and can move on. If not, so be it, we drop down a level and carry on with it.