by Top Flight »
30 Oct 2008 10:26
I would analyse that we only have a 20% chance of winning promotion this season.
Its a realistic possibility but we are more likely not to go up than we are to go up this season.
Birmingham probably have a 65% chance of promotion and Wolves are ranked at 50/50. Wolves are touch and go. They could be caught by a resurgent Royals or resilient Cardiff City side. But both Reading and Cardiff would need to show a marked improvement and both clubs are capable of that.
The way things are looking right now though is that Reading won't be able to get the level of consistency needed to maintain a top 2 position in the league. We are just not dominant or solid enough to be a top 2 side. We can blow anyone away on our day, but we are not well organised and solid enough to pick up the points when its not our day.
That means its the lottery of the play-offs where anyone from 4 could go up. Reading should be one of the stronger play-off sides. But if we can't win away, what happens when we meet Bristol City in the play-offs and we beat them 2-1 at home and lose 2-0 away? We'll be staying down.
Anything can happen in January. We can either find the strength needed to make the improvement to get into the top 2, providing we can stay close enough to them between now and January, or we could be severley weakend by the departure of key personnel.
As of right now, we can't be more than a 20% hope for promotion.