2nd place and climbing

[Jack Celliers]

I expected 7th, but wanted to enjoy the season. There was no point turning up and expecting the bad form of last season to instantly switch over to free-flowing football and big victories. Luckily it did (at least at home) and I now feel we can go up.

This year is the best chance we are going to get for a few years, but it still doesn't feel as urgent as last time. Then the fear of not geting promoted was always on my mind.

Next year might not be as good whichever league we are in: a new manager getting sacked by January having invested heavily on a side full of WBA and Portsmouth cast-offs playing.

[papereyes]

I was a fringes of the play-offs man myself.

Question marks for me were about whether Coppell had the will to do what was necessary to remould a new side. Got to say i was looking at it taking a couple of seasons which would have been perfectly acceptable to me as long as it incorporated a couple of youth players as part of the plans.

To say we've done it quicker than i expected is an understatement.

What's also been impressive is that we seem to have overcome each potential doubt as the season has progressed.

1) Would the key relegated players have the stomach for the grind of another Championship season?. Well Yes to that after the initial hangover.

2) Could the new(er) players step up to contribute what is necessary for a promotion chasing side ?. Armstrong, Kebe, Cisse and Hunt have all done that added tp the contributions of the youth players Pearce,Karacan & Henry.

3) Addressing our abysmal early season away results. Well thats well and truly been transformed.

4) Can we overcome adversity i games.? We were great when things were going well but i had the impression we lacked a bit of steel and character when the going got tough. Well the beauty of our recent run is that it has come when the rub of the green hasn't necessarily been with us. We may have played better at other periods this season but i think these recent performances could prove to be more significant.

We're 2nd now and looking good BUT the way i see it . there are still 2 obstacles that we have to overcome.

The transfer window still looms and we really need to hold onto all of our current squad to continue the momentum we have established.

Secondly , i still think we need a plan B if teams find a way to starve the wings of service. Fresh legs are one thing and can work (Henry & Long coming off the bench against Norwich for example) but i still believe we are just missing that element of surprise. That ability to be able to adapt and offer a ddifferent threat if the need arises. This is why i believe we do need to harness Matejovsky and his talents over the course of the next few months. It may only be in the vein of cameo appearences here and there, something he won't be particularly happy about, but i can see it being essential to secure results in games as the pressure builds at the end of the season.

Its looking promising at the moment but theres still a way to go yet.

I think I'd add an extra point about the depth of our squad and that we've been lucky with injuries, imo, so far but, yes, all of what he said.

[readingbedding]

I expected 7th, but wanted to enjoy the season. There was no point turning up and expecting the bad form of last season to instantly switch over to free-flowing football and big victories. Luckily it did (at least at home) and I now feel we can go up.

This year is the best chance we are going to get for a few years, but it still doesn't feel as urgent as last time. Then the fear of not geting promoted was always on my mind.

Next year might not be as good whichever league we are in: a new manager getting sacked by January having invested heavily on a side full of WBA and Portsmouth cast-offs playing.

That's a whole load of complete nonsense.

[strap]

Very very happy and pleasantly surprised.

Kebe and Cisse are exceeding expectations, NHunt is doing what I'd hoped as is Armstrong (I spent a long time saying if Shorey went we'd replace him), Rosenior has found his feet and Doyle, Ingimarsson and SHunt (to a lesser degree) have refound their form.

Add to that the bonuses of Karacan, Henry, Pearce and to a lesser degree Kelly.

negatives:- Convey still nowhere, Bikey's still showing he has the talent, but not necessarily the temperament or concentration, Hahnemann's injury, Lita in general and Long going nowhere fast.

My only concern is how many players are up to the Prem...

Harper & Matejovsky with the right partner (not together in a two), Doyle, SHunt, Rosenior and Armstrong.

Probably/possibly - Hahnemann, Duberry, Bikey, NHunt (as a squad player).

Obviously cannot agree with your opinion of Kebe as he is not a footballer, although much of the rest is sound. As you say the biggest worry, (assuming we do go up of course), is how many of the current squad are good enough. We know that Mr Mad will not open his wallet, so are we destined for trouble? This year WBA spent somethign like £23M (according to Steve Claridge on 5Live) and are struggling. Our current squad will need strengthening, (boy, do I sound like stuck record ), so here's a thought - would it be so bad if we DIDN'T go up this year?

Downsides I can see immediately would be SHunt and Doyle leaving, possible too Marek M. Bikey will doubtless make noises and may well be off too, but frankly he is far from irreplaceable, either from within or without. The there is the question of the strength of sides coming down this year. (Although most of us thought this division this year would be far more competitive).

On the plus side, it would give another year for the likes of Pearce, Henry, Karacan, Kelly et al to mature, we still get the last year of the parachute payment. Wage bill would be manageable, and there would be far less clamouring for "Premiership" signings, lessening the perceived strain on Mr Mad's wallet. We get (hopefully) to see a Roylas team winning regularly rather than scraping at the bottom of the league.

A conundrum.

[Dr Hfuhruhurr]

None of us should really underestimate what has happened this year.

Remember we ended last year on a real low. Not only for getting relegated, but also for the spinless way we did it. There were a number of players at the club who 'had' to go - the only issue when they did go was that they seemed quite a good bunch of players leaving, and we looked like we were going to start the campaign a much weaker side than the one that got us promoted. A draw with Forest and being rolled over comfortably by Charlton and Ipswich and it looked ominous. Mid table at best. A repeat of last year's inability to solve our problems, and, all in all, a far from optimistic view for Season Ticket Holders. But since then:

Morale at the club has infinitely lifted. For me, a good part of the reason for this are The Hunt brothers (one refinding his form and the other far exceeding the low expectations of his transfer), but on the pitch we seem coherent and we know what we're doing, and, off the pitch, there appears to be a happy calm. We approach the transfer window debating Leroy Lita, and THATS IT. Its a luxuriant position to be in.

We've been a bit lucky along the way (THAT Watford goal, the Sheffield Wednesday coach breaking down) but since Ipswich away, we've looked more dangerous on the pitch per minute than any other team in this league. I know there are Coppell knockers on this board (and last year didnt really help his cause) but at this level there is no-one better. The record books support this, as well. To turn it around since the trip to Portman Road has been superb, and full credit to the players as well.

....and to top it all off, we're starting to play the youngsters as well. Nothing to complain about is there?

[londinium]

Very very happy and pleasantly surprised.

Kebe and Cisse are exceeding expectations, NHunt is doing what I'd hoped as is Armstrong (I spent a long time saying if Shorey went we'd replace him), Rosenior has found his feet and Doyle, Ingimarsson and SHunt (to a lesser degree) have refound their form.

Add to that the bonuses of Karacan, Henry, Pearce and to a lesser degree Kelly.

negatives:- Convey still nowhere, Bikey's still showing he has the talent, but not necessarily the temperament or concentration, Hahnemann's injury, Lita in general and Long going nowhere fast.

My only concern is how many players are up to the Prem...

Harper & Matejovsky with the right partner (not together in a two), Doyle, SHunt, Rosenior and Armstrong.

Probably/possibly - Hahnemann, Duberry, Bikey, NHunt (as a squad player).

Obviously cannot agree with your opinion of Kebe as he is not a footballer, although much of the rest is sound. As you say the biggest worry, (assuming we do go up of course), is how many of the current squad are good enough. We know that Mr Mad will not open his wallet, so are we destined for trouble? This year WBA spent somethign like £23M (according to Steve Claridge on 5Live) and are struggling. Our current squad will need strengthening, (boy, do I sound like stuck record ), so here's a thought - would it be so bad if we DIDN'T go up this year?

Downsides I can see immediately would be SHunt and Doyle leaving, possible too Marek M. Bikey will doubtless make noises and may well be off too, but frankly he is far from irreplaceable, either from within or without. The there is the question of the strength of sides coming down this year. (Although most of us thought this division this year would be far more competitive).

On the plus side, it would give another year for the likes of Pearce, Henry, Karacan, Kelly et al to mature, we still get the last year of the parachute payment. Wage bill would be manageable, and there would be far less clamouring for "Premiership" signings, lessening the perceived strain on Mr Mad's wallet. We get (hopefully) to see a Roylas team winning regularly rather than scraping at the bottom of the league.

A conundrum.

Man City spent shed loads and are struggling.

Hull spent not much and are doing well
First season up we spent little and did well.

It is a funny old game.

Throwing money at a problem is not always the answer.

A team that plays just that, as a team is the answer.

Whether or not we will do that should we go up who knows!!!!

[cmonurz]

If we went up and didn't spend much money for a second time, I would definitely cry, a lot.

[Ian Royal]

How much you spend is immaterial, it's how you spend it that matters.


Lets not forget the fans in our turnaround since relegation.

Whilst in practical terms we can't do anything, we set the scene and built the right atmosphere with the fantastic support given to the team by everyone at Derby last season. You could see how shocked the and pleased the players were and several came out in the press saying how surprised they were that they got a standing ovation having been relegated.

A number of journos commentated on it too.

Add in the "Steve Don't Leave", car park campaign and the fans were clearly all about confidence and rebuilding to get back, rather than the recriminations and depression at B'ham and Derby.

I think it has to have contributed and enthused and encouraged the players.

[Sarah Star]

How much you spend is immaterial, it's how you spend it that matters.


Lets not forget the fans in our turnaround since relegation.

Whilst in practical terms we can't do anything, we set the scene and built the right atmosphere with the fantastic support given to the team by everyone at Derby last season. You could see how shocked the and pleased the players were and several came out in the press saying how surprised they were that they got a standing ovation having been relegated.

A number of journos commentated on it too.

Add in the "Steve Don't Leave", car park campaign and the fans were clearly all about confidence and rebuilding to get back, rather than the recriminations and depression at B'ham and Derby.

I think it has to have contributed and enthused and encouraged the players.

It doesn't appear to be enough for Stephen Hunt though

[RobRoyal]

http://hobnob.royals.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=83119

Fully delighted - thus far - to be proved wrong myself, although to be fair at the time of writing we had no left back and we still had Ibrahima Sonko committing defensive suicide week on week for us.

I love how people who criticised the state of the squad and couldn't find the faith that our celebrated manager just might manage to improve it defend themselves by saying, "well back then we were playing bollocks... how was I supposed to know...?."

We bought a left-back, and Bikey came back. How could anyone possibly have forseen those two events...

[Royal Rother]

Well said RobRoyal. (If the initials are RR it's usually worth reading.... )

However patchy the start, to me it never seemed logical to dismiss Coppell's record...

As I said pre-Forest, we have a squad that is capable of going straight back up but as a huge amount of sport is played in the mind, if they aren't right then no amount of skill can compensate.

I do have a feeling of deja vu myself - at the end of 2004/5 I decided Coppell had to go as he seemed incapable of motivating the players, of getting them to play entertaining football that I would look forward to seeing, and of getting together a promotion team.

As papereyes often mentions, a couple of signings later and he has formed a record-breaking team playing amazing football.

I doubt that transformation happened just by chance - it was due to a lot of factors but (probably) the most important was Coppell himself. The point was that it happened almost at the click of your fingers. End of 2004/5 = Rubbish, start of 2005/6 = Superb.

Coppell is not a flash-in-the-pan manager, he is a steady-Eddie, so I believe it is logical to believe in Coppell's ability to do that again. One permanent and 2 loan signings (plus Bikey back) might just do the trick.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

As I am totally inept at anything to do with numbers and Excel in particular, isn't it about time that one of you clever chaps started all those charts that depict RFC against the others and the countdown to promotion.... ? You know, the thingy from three seasons ago.....

Entirely too early for that, as what follows attempts to make clear.

Numbers can be derived, but they're utterly meaningless at this point owing to the facts that the season is barely half played; head to head contests are certain to pare down points tallies of those lower down the table; and our guys, while well positioned, are still very much in the thick of things. In any event...

With 22 games remaining (66 points on offer) and RFC on 49 points

R to avoid relegation: Forest in 22nd on 21 points with a maximum possible haul of 87; any combination of 39 R points won/points dropped by Forest and the two currently below them. Clearing this hurdle currently lies an irreducible minimum of 7 games into the future --Donny Rovers away on 3rd February, after which 15 games will remain to be played-- and assumes that R win their next six as Forest win zero points over the same span but retain their table position (this illustrates the absurdity of even doing the numbers at this point --or at least seeking to discern meaning from them)

R to finish sixth at worst: Blunts/Palace/Preston in 6th-8th on 37 points, maximum possible 103; any combination of 55 R points won/points dropped by each of Blunts, Palace and Preston and all others currently below them. The absolute soonest that this could happen would be 10 games out with 12 remaining, and it ignores any head to head matchups involving Blunts/Palace/Preston in which at least one side would be assured of picking up points (owing to which R clinching a top-six finish would come later, even in a best-case scenario)

R to finish second: Brum in third on 47 points, maximum possible 113; any combination of 65 R points won/points dropped by Brum and all others currently below them (see how the maths work --66 points on offer, and for R currently 2 points better than Brum to finish a point in front of them, R would need to win 65 points if Brum were to be perfect for the rest of the season [and of course there's no result that leaves you dropping a single point], and R play Brum down the road anyway). In any event, the absolute soonest that this could happen would be 11 games out with 11 remaining

R for the Championship: Wolves in first on 56 points, maximum possible 122; any combination of 74 R points won/points dropped by Wolves and all others currently below them. The soonest that this could happen would be 13 games out with 9 remaining, and it assumes that R post an unblemished record as Wolves pick up no points over the same span

Also not taken into account, when trying to ascertain earliest possible clinching dates, is the inevitable rash of future rearrangements on grounds of Cup participation, weather, etc.

In sum, we'll know a lot more come the middle of February, by which time we should be on the verge of scooting clear of relegation and any "countdown" of this sort would begin to make practical sense. Worry not in the meantime --as you can see, we're watching it.

[Royal Rother]

Love it!

I predict 19 wins and 3 losses in the rest of the season.

[Dick Habbin's hairdo]

Blimey, Chicago, you have waaaaaaaay too much time on your hands...

All very interesting but, as they say, "I'm not reading all that!".... Excellent job.

BTW, I went to the Cov game the other week with some colleagues from London, Hong Kong and Chicago. Even my Chicago colleague thought it was cold and she is now the proud owner of a RFC fleece to keep her warm as the wind blows down across the lake and streets of windy city.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

It's oxf*rd Siberia around here --if you've got a spare moment later on, tune into the NFL game from here tonite (KO 2030 US/EDT; breakfast time in your neck of the desert IIRC). Cold as absolute death for the last 36 hours and continuing overnite, but it's supposed to be mid-40s (in old money) come week's end.

Yes, do please pardon the above jumbLOLe of words --just want to prove what I'm saying (to wit, that I shouldn't even be talking about it at all --how meta!). And believe me when I say that it only takes minutes to come up with it --dividing by three and subtracting from 46 is something that I can do pretty quickly out of habit.

[FiNeRaIn]

Though I aint gonna count chickens until after Jan.

May might be a better time.

[1960]

Of course we won't go straight back up. Only 5 of the last 36 relegated teams have gone straight back up. Why should we be any different? We've lost Shorey, Kits, Sidwell (earlier) and Sonko. We've not brought in replacements. I'll be happy if we maintain mid-table, but a run of dodgy results could cause a flirting with relegation.

That was me last summer. What a prat! Shows how much I know.

[JoebyRFC]

coppell kind of does the right thing during transfer windows as he will by one or two players who either come straight into the team or next season there be ready to play.

its just a case of if we do get promoted coppell should carry on with what he is doing but add more quantity.

[Cookie]

The players that Coppell is allowing to go to other clubs including those in The Championship is a fair indication of where he's setting the bar. He believes we are better than most of the rest.


Lethal striker Leroy Lita scored his seventh goal in 14 games on loan from Reading
"I have to be careful what I say as Steve Coppell has done us a massive favour. I expect Reading to take Leroy back and I don't know if we can do anything. But he certainly fits the profile of the type of player we'd like to have." Glen Roeder
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/leagues/championship/3869275/Leroy-Lita-proves-worth-for-Norwich.html

Roeder goes on to say...
“He's just the sort of player that I believe you need in the Championship because I think he's one of those players that's had a little taste of the Premier League, he's played for England Under-21s and he's a cut above most strikers in the Championship - and he's got that physical presence. He's not the sort of player if you're a central defender who lacks a yard of pace you'd want to play against, because he would just run away from you - and there are lots of those types of centre backs in the Championship, who are good players but they lack a yard of pace.

[East Stand Royal 500]

Fink Tank: Reading a team without equal . . . but only just
I kept a copy of a graphic from this article in The Times on 4 October. It's locked for copying so I can't paste it here but it's still in the archives so you can get it from this link.
http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/pdfs/finktank_oct04.pdf
The thrust of the article was that Reading were statistically most likely to win automatic promotion followed by Birmingham and Wolves (in that order).
Barnsley will have to do really badly for the rest of the season to fulfil their 69% chance of relegation; Derby are doing better than expected and Charlton a lot worse. The rest prove the point of the article that the CCC is one of the most competetive in the world - 13 clubs separated by less than 10 points after 24 games.