Shane Long

[Snowball]

Ian, I am simply making the point that Long has played so very few games, and such a small total of minutes
and yet has scored 11 league goals. I think one league down in the right kind of team he'd get near a goal a game.

I think he is EASILY a 20-goal a season player at this level IF HE STARTS

What people fail to see is how many of his sub minutes are meaningless.

Often he comes on when the side is just running down the last ten minutes, they have either
wrapped the game up 3-0 or have already blown it (eg at Charlton)

People keep going on about the chances Coppel has given him and he's blown them.

26 90 minute games = 2,340 minutes. That's the total he has played in the league
in the four seasons he's been at the club.

Had he played every game that would be 46+46+38+38 = 168 Games (Doyle is 131+6 in that time)

So he's played less than one eighth of the league minutes available, but still got 11 league goals.

In strict theory we could expect a player with that hit rate to get 88 goals if he played every 90 minutes.

If Long scored at HALF that rate he'd be on 44 goals

Of course Doyle seems so much a bigger player. In the same time-period he has started 131 games
five times as many start minutes as Long has totaled with starts and all those 5-15 minute sub appearances added together.

SO WE SHOULD EXPECT DOYLE, FIVE TIMES LONGER ON THE PITCH TO SCORE 11 X 5 GOALS = 55 LEAGUE GOALS

DOYLE HAS SCORED 54 LEAGUE GOALS BUT HE HAS HAD 131 GAMES (AND 6 SUB APPEARANCES) TO DO THAT


Because he has got the goals, people remember the goals and rate the player, but minute for minute
Long matches Doyle. That is an undeniable fact.

Because Long often gets on for a few minutes he shows up as 91 appearances, but 71 of them are for tiny amounts of time

League Appearances League Goals shown as X

05 The number of times Long has played a full 90 minutes X
03 The number of times Long has played 75-82 minutes XX
12 The number of times Long has played 60-74 minutes XX
03 The number of times Long has played 36-54 minutes
12 The number of times Long has played 20-29 minutes XXX
13 The number of times Long has played 15-19 minutes
10 The number of times Long has played 10-14 minutes XX
20 The number of times Long has played 9 minutes or less X

It's obviously a myth that Long doesn't score if he starts.

20 times he has started and scored 5 goals (the same hit-rate as Lita overall)
58 times he has come on as sub and scored 6 goals

[Snowball]

God, I thought I loved stats.

I love the truth.

[Platypuss]

How about finally addressing this one?

"Longy has to do it now or move on.". Steve Coppell. 28/08/08

[Schards#2]

Lita>>>Long end of.

However, if you ignore goals scored for other teams: Long>Torres but that would be just silly wouldn't it?

[Smoking Kills Dancing Doe]

To quote Benjamin Disraeli.

Lies, lies, damn lies and statistics.

[Thaumagurist*]

My other side is Arsenal, sometimes beautiful to watch.

Ah. You've just lost more credibility with that admission.

[sheshnu]

If Long was a better player than Doyle, Lita, Kitson or Hunt N then he'd be higher up the order for Reading or starting for another (probably Championship) club. He's not and that's fine, he does a pretty good job as it is but, as Platypuss seems to think he needs to emphasise, if he doesn't start to get a lot better it would probably be a good idea for him to move on in July. Whether he will or not is up to him I suppose.

[Hoop Blah]

None of which makes a blind bit of difference to Long's ability to control a ball or hold off a defender.


This is plain daft. Some players are LUMPS but they keep putting it in the net.
Shane Long's scoring rate is respectable. For a bit-part sub it's brilliant.

He should get more time either with Reading or on loan. Mark my words he'll have a 30-goal season





None of it makes a blind bit of difference to Lita's inability to challenge for the ball without trying to win a freekick and losing posession on far too frequent an occassion.

Well I think Lita's head is gone. When you judge his overall record he's been going downhill for years.
YES he had a brief flurry at Norwich (but not STUNNING. 7 in 16 made better by a hat-trick otherwise 4 in 15)



...I don't know what you're trying to prove Snowball, but all the stats in the world won't change what happens on the pitch!

I agree. Let's talk "on the pitch" then.

How many times this season has Leroy saved Reading?

NONE.

How many times did he save Reading in the 2007-08 season?

NONE.

How many points has Shane grabbed for us this season? At least four.

He earned us more than that in the Premiership.

To me Long is a hard-working professional, young, who has the power and speed to be a very, very good player.

Lita is a talented but overblown playboy on his way down down down unless some manager can smack some sense into him.

Last point. Those who defend him are thinking 3-4 years in the past. 2 pointless goals in two seasons, and ten for other clubs?

Horses for courses. Long may well be better at coming off the bench and making an impact. That still doesn't make him a better player. Lita has had some excellent games for Reading and scored some very important goals.

For me he's a better player than Long.

[Hoop Blah]

I think he is EASILY a 20-goal a season player at this level IF HE STARTS

What you're overlooking is that Long just doesn't play very well consistently enough when he players from the start.

A side willing to carry him won't be good enough to have a 20 goal a season forward.

[Hoop Blah]

Neither of those actually tell you who's the better team or player though, it just shows who'd amassed more
points or scored more goals over the season (the table never lies is a cliche that has some weight behind it
admittedly, but it's still only a measure of performance not ability


As far as I am concerned, the side that gets the most points
is the "best" that year. The best at meeting the task (getting points)

My other side is Arsenal, sometimes beautiful to watch. When Hull
went to the Emirates and won 2-1, that was a statistic. Sheer guts and
hard work overcame 11 guys playing TOO pretty football.

Would you rather we be the best side in the Championship and lose 1-0
in the play-off final, or be "workmanlike" and champions?

For me it's a no-brainer. The one with the most points is the best side.

I might accept an argument if it 90 Pts versus 89, but not 95 v 85.





But the Readings of this world are never going to match Arsenal, Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool for pure ability.

We do it on effort, guts, team-play.

That's why I like the Longs, Doyles, Hunts and don't like tarts who occasionally score clever goals.

A team has to be able to win games as well as play decent football, that's not in question.

What I would say is that sometimes to side with the best blend of abilities doesn't always win. The league table is the only way to judge who has been the most effective squad over a season, but it still doesn't tell you who has the most ability or the best team, as it rarely gets out on the pitch and there are many many other factors that influence it.

A bit like the number of times Long and Lita play, or the times at which they play, and the sides they play in mean that statistics will not tell you who is the better player.

[Royal Rother]

For me, it's 4 years since Long has signed, he's not a kid anymore yet hasn't shown remotely near enough progress in that time.

I'm sure most would agree that although Long has improved in the last 4 years, it really hasn't been as much as hoped.

However, I would suggest that Lita has probably gone backwards in that time.

[Snowball]

However, if you ignore goals scored for other teams: Long>Torres but that would be just silly wouldn't it?


Don't talk wet. Torres for Liverpool 44 League Appearances, 29 goals, 1 goal every 1.5 league games


BUT

If you INCLUDE all the teams Lita has played for since joining Reading, these are his crap figures

76 19 READING 1 goal every 4 matches
13 06 Norwich
08 03 Charlton

97 28 1 goal every 3.46 games

So in four seasons in Championship or Premiership he has had 97 league starts and scored 28 goals at an average of 1 goal every 3.46 games

2 goals every 7 league games is Leroy's average at Championship and Premiership level. That's ALL clubs, and that is not a good record for a main striker.


In 3.1 seasons, Shane Long, 25 months younger, 18 when he first played for the club has had 20 starts (one fifth of Lita's) and 11 goals. 1 goal for every 1.82 starts
But that's false. In Shane's case he has played a lot of minutes as a sub, so call his games 26 and goals 11. Now his scoring ratio is "only" 1 goal in every 2.40 games

In terms of goals per minute on the pitch he matches and beats Doyle. These are absolute facts

[cmonurz]

As you are focusing on goals, snowball, how many league points have Long's goals directly earned us?

What you are not taking into account is that, irrespective of Long's actual goals per minute, if our forward line is not as effective overall (with the ball at feet, in the air, holding up play etc), then the team's results will be affected.I'd suggest that is why Doyle has consistently been in the side, and Long has not.

[Schards#2]

However, if you ignore goals scored for other teams: Long>Torres but that would be just silly wouldn't it?


Don't talk wet. Torres for Liverpool 44 League Appearances, 29 goals, 1 goal every 1.5 league games


BUT

If you INCLUDE all the teams Lita has played for since joining Reading, these are his crap figures

76 19 READING 1 goal every 4 matches
13 06 Norwich
08 03 Charlton

97 28 1 goal every 3.46 games

So in four seasons in Championship or Premiership he has had 97 league starts and scored 28 goals at an average of 1 goal every 3.46 games

2 goals every 7 league games is Leroy's average at Championship and Premiership level. That's ALL clubs, and that is not a good record for a main striker.


In 3.1 seasons, Shane Long, 25 months younger, 18 when he first played for the club has had 20 starts (one fifth of Lita's) and 11 goals. 1 goal for every 1.82 starts
But that's false. In Shane's case he has played a lot of minutes as a sub, so call his games 26 and goals 11. Now his scoring ratio is "only" 1 goal in every 2.40 games

In terms of goals per minute on the pitch he matches and beats Doyle. These are absolute facts

In terms of goals per minute, whilst playing as an outfield player, Federici averages one goal every thirty seconds.

[Maguire]

I think he is EASILY a 20-goal a season player at this level IF HE STARTS

LOLLY!

20 shots a season maybe.

If he was EASILY a 20-goal a season player then we'd either have him in the first team or be selling him for millions.

[Snowball]

There's a thing called "salience and relevance" that causes people to make errors of judgment.


Lita came for decent money. His first season he started 22 times and came on as sub 4 times
but this is a season where Reading broke all sorts of records and amassed 106 points.

Lita played 22 games and if we add 11 subs @ 20% (average 18 minutes) that's 22.8 games,
an average of 1 goal every 2.1 games. GOOD

But in his second season he managed just 7 league goals in 22+11 (24.2 games)
an average of 1 goal every 3.4 games. That is not very special for a striker.

In his third season he managed a single league goal with virtually the last kick of the season (90th minute at Derby)
but he played 10 starts and one sub appearance.
an average of 1 goal every 10.2 games For a striker that should be a criminal offence!

If that season you add in 3 in 8 at Charlton you get what? 18+1 games and 4 goals

an average of 1 goal every 4.55 games

His total Premiership Stats are 40+12 (= 42.4 games) 11 goals
an average of 1 goal every 3.85 games


But what people focus on is that first season's goals, the joy of promotion. That's called "the halo effect"


a strike rate of 2.1
dropping to
a strike rate of 3.4
dropping to
a strike rate of 3.9

suggests a player who is blowing it off the pitch

True, if you factor in his little run at Norwich, 7 goals in 16 starts, plus 1 for us (another meaningless 90th minute strike in a 4-0 win)
you get better figures of 8 goals in 19+1 an average of 1 goal every 2.4 games


Championship 41+05 (=42.0) games 19 goals an average of 1 goal every 2.2 games
Premiership.. 40+12 (= 42.4) games 11 goals an average of 1 goal every 3.9 games

[Ian Royal]

Ian, I am simply making the point that Long has played so very few games, and such a small total of minutes
and yet has scored 11 league goals. I think one league down in the right kind of team he'd get near a goal a game.

I think he is EASILY a 20-goal a season player at this level IF HE STARTS

RIght, now I've got rid of the meaningless pointless statistical drivel, I can get on with responding.

Long has started so few games, because he has been diabolical in pretty much every single one. He has a much much better record as a sub. But not exactly great. His sub appearances are always going to inflate his quality, because he is quick and comes on against tiring defences. Quite often defences who have already lost the game.

Long will NEVER, EVER score 20 goals in a season at this level. There are two main reasos for this, one which causes the second. Those are:

1) He isn't even close to good enough
2) Because of 1) He'll never start enough games to manage it.

Kitson didn't score 20 at this level, Doyle hasn't (yet) and both of them are 10 times the player Long is, and probably ever will be.

[cmonurz]

You're still ignoring my question snowball, as to how many points Long's goals have directly earned us.

Edit: I worked it out (didn't take long). Without Long's goals we would be 6 points worse off over the last 3.5 seasons.

[Ian Royal]

You're still ignoring my question snowball, as to how many points Long's goals have directly earned us.

Edit: I worked it out (didn't take long). Without Long's goals we would be 6 points worse off over the last 3.5 seasons.

How do those massive 6 points break down over the different seasons? At least 1 in 05/06 isn't it? goals to draw with Derby spring to mind.

ALL HAIL THE MIGHTY LONG WHO CAUSED US TO BREAK THE POINTS RECORD!!!!

[Skyline]

You do have to wonder, if Long is as good as Snowball says he is, why have no other teams been in for him.