Shane Long

[Snowball]

Snowball. If Long is as hot a property as you say, then why did Steve Coppell say:

"Longy needs to do it now or move on". Sorry to repeat it, but you seem to be deliberately ignoring this.

Maybe Coppell thinks, based on minutes played the boy is doing OK.

If the manager wanted him out, don't you think he'd be advertising?

Isn't it more likely he wanted Longy to "step-up"?

But seriously how does anyone break into a forward line like Doyle-Hunt?

[Platypuss]

But seriously how does anyone break into a forward line like Doyle-Hunt?

By being better on the pitch? He had the opportunity.

Long started in preference to Hunt against Palace and Ipswich. From the following Shef weds game onwards NHunt was first choice of the two. Why was that?

Anyway, if Coppell thought Long was as good as you do, why did he buy Noel Hunt in the first place?

[Royal Lady]

Don't get me wrong Shane, I like you as a person. You're just not a very good footballer.

[cmonurz]

But seriously how does anyone break into a forward line like Doyle-Hunt?

According to you he would be scoring as many goals as Doyle (and more than Hunt), so it shouldn't be difficult.

[bishbosh92]

A few of the more sensible posters on this list have pointed out that some members just decide to dislike certain players,
even when the stats say otherwise. Steve Hunt & Kebe, for example, either have scored or made 60% of our league goals

But it seems that almost everyone on this list has a down on Shane Long. I think you're all wrong.

Shane doesn't get to play many full 90 minute games, and coming on as sub for 5-15 minutes is never easy.

But Shane has earned some vital points for Reading this year. His brave last-ditch header against Southampton was HUGE for us.

The home game against Norwich was headed for a 0-0 draw. Long came on in the 80th minute, won a penalty in the 84th
which Hunt scored (1-0) and then Shane scored another.

Shane won the free-kick that led to Hunts FK and Doyle's goal at Birmingham

Long made both goals at Dagenham
Long made the third goal at Wolves

This is his record in minutes-played order... scores are for his time on the park

90 2-0 Dagenham Made BOTH goals
90 2-2 Stoke Premiership side. Scored in Pens. "Emphatic Penalty"
90 1-1 Southampton SCORED. Won vital point
68 3-2 Palace Played 68, winning 3-2 when subbed
65 2-1 BURNLEY SCORED
63 2-0 Birmingham Won Free Kick for Doyle's goal
60 4-0 LUTON Two misses, two saves, "electrifying pace"
60 0-0 Ipswich
36 1-2 Watford WON PENALTY for 2-2. "Stunning effort"
29 0-0 SOUTHAMPTON
28 1-0 Wednesday Hit the bar
27 1-1 CARDIFF
22 1-0 DERBY Made a clear chance for Steve Hunt
21 1-2 Preston
18 0-0 COVENTRY
17 0-0 PLYMOUTH "Terrorised defenders"
17 0-1 Bristol Forced a save
15 0-0 Sheff Utd
14 0-0 Charlton Two fabulous crosses for Hunt & Lita
14 1-0 SWANSEA
10 0-0 BLACKPOOL
10 2-0 NORWICH Won penalty for opening goal AND Scored
09 0-0 QPR
07 0-0 DONCASTER
06 1-0 Wolves Made third goal for Cisse

Despite Long has done alright as far as creatign stuff this year!!
A striker needs to Score more though!

[Snowball]

One of the MYTHS is that Shane Long does not perform when he starts.

The stats prove otherwise

90 W 3 - 1 STOKE FIRST EVER START
73 L 0 - 4 ARSENAL 0-4 when subbed
75 W 2 - 0 Man City 0-0 when subbed
80 W 3 - 2 WIGAN SCORED 2-1 WHEN SUBBED
73 W 3 - 1 SHEFF UTD SCORED 3-0 WHEN SUBBED
62 W 2 - 0 VILLA 1-0 when subbed (Sidwell 90)
62 L 1 - 2 Boro 0-1 when subbed
53 L 1 - 3 Portsmouth 1-2 when subbed
90 D 0 - 0 Charlton
65 D 3 - 3 Blackburn 2-2 when subbed
74 L 1 - 2 CHELSEA 1-2 when subbed
90 W 1 - 0 EVERTON
90 W 1 - 0 Middlesboro First Win after 8 straight defeats
82 W 2 - 0 MAN CITY SCORED. 1-0 when subbed
63 L 1 - 2 Liverpool 1-2 when subbed
61 L 0 - 2 FULHAM 0-1 when subbed
90 L 0 - 3 Bolton
90 D 1 - 1 Southampton SCORED vital Equaliser
68 W 4 - 2 Palace 3-2 when subbed
65 W 3 - 1 BURNLEY SCORED


Scored: 5 goals in 20 starts, but not 20 x 90 minutes. (20x 73 minutes)

= 16 x 90 minute games, 5 goals

as for him being better as a sub?

20 starts (16) 5 goals
64 as sub (13) 6 goals

but didn't someone say it's easier to score in the last 15 minutes?





READING RECORD IN LEAGUE GAMES LONG HAS STARTED

10 WON
03 DRAWN
07 LOST

(all losses in the Prem 3 first season, 4 in the relegation season)


When Long has started in the Championship the stats are W3 D1 L0 11-5

That is, when Long starts in the Championship, we don't lose!



He has played, in starting games, an average of 73 minutes.


RESULTS

32-29 W10-D3-L7 (the whole game)
23-23 W09-D4-L7 (game up to subsitution)

09-06 Goals after Long went off.

He has started 20 games. Just ONCE has our result changed after he came off.

That was home v Man City 0-0 when he came off, then Lita scored 2 for a 2-0 win

[Only one Trevor Morley]

I'm enjoying this thread

Snowballs fighting a decent reguard action against some of HNAs finest and I'd say it was honours even....

I dont think anyone can say that Long is not a 20 goal a season striker as he hasnt had a full season to prove that - I'd say on balance he's unlikely to be one, but certainly the stats provided by Snowball offer more comfort on than bold assertions.

The Platypus quote is certainly true - but whats also true is that Coppell has said on a number of occasions this season that Long has the ability to change a game.

[Platypuss]

Isn't it more likely he wanted Longy to "step-up"?

Why should he need to "step-up" if he's already as good as you (and the stats!) say?

[Skyline]

You do have to wonder, if Long is as good as Snowball says he is, why have no other teams been in for him.

Shane isn't a good player imo. He's had 4 years to prove himself and he hasn't. Some of his goals have been lucky, some have been pretty quality, but that's not good enough at this level, let alone in the Premiership. And if he *was* that good, how come he's never been linked with any other clubs!

<------- I said that on page 1!

True, sorry, missed that one. I'm just too busy laughing at Snowball's desperate attempts to show Long is a real footballer.

[Snowball]

But seriously how does anyone break into a forward line like Doyle-Hunt?

According to you he would be scoring as many goals as Doyle (and more than Hunt), so it shouldn't be difficult.

No, that does NOT follow.

First Coppell doesn't change winning sides. Doyle & Hunt, if fit are virtually undroppable.
Second Kevin Doyle is actually scoring the goals 17 League goals in 28 1 goal every 142 minutes
Third Noel Hunt is actually scoring the goals 10 League goals in 22 (5) 1 goal every 159 minutes


This season Shane is scoring one goal every 223 minutes BTW, just a tad better than 2 goals in 5 games, respectable figures for a full-time striker


And looking at who-played-when it's obvious what's happening.

KD-SL-NH
90 00 00 Forest
73 17 02 Plymouth
76 14 18 Charlton
90 68 22 Palace
90 60 30 Ipswich
62 28 78 Wednesday
90 36 54 Watford
90 24 76 SWANSEA
90 06 84 Wolves
90 65 25 BURNLEY
69 21 90 Preston
90 07 83 DONCASTER
90 09 90 QPR
90 00 90 Burnley
73 17 68 Bristol
90 22 68 DERBY
90 15 75 Sheffield United
90 29 61 SAINTS
90 00 35 Cardiff
90 18 72 COVENTRY
90 00 56 Barnsley
90 10 80 BLACKPOOL
90 10 80 NORWICH
90 63 27 Birmingham
90 27 63 CARDIFF
90 90 21 Southampton
76 14 76 WATFORD
90 00 62 Swansea


2409 Minutes - 17 goals - 142 Minutes per goal DOYLE (Main Striker)
1586 Minutes - 10 goals - 159 minutes per goal HUNT (Support Striker)
0670 Minutes - 03 goals - 223 minutes per goal LONG (Third Striker)

86 Minutes Average time on the pitch DOYLE (Factor = 17.2) 17 actual goals
59 Minutes Average time on the pitch HUNT (Factor = 11. 10 actual goals
24 Minutes Average time on the pitch LONG (Factor = 04. 03 actual goals

If you multiply up Hunt and Long to 2409 Minutes you'd get

2409 Minutes - 17.00 goals DOYLE actual
2409 Minutes - 15.36 goals HUNT projected, equal time
2409 Minutes - 10.79 goals LONG projected, equal time


The reason these figures don't equate to earlier ones is I hadn't allowed for the times Doyle came off early
and also, rather than guess an average sub time of 18 minutes, these are exact figures. Long is averaging 24 minutes this year

They do mean, unless you can prove that Long plays worse if he starts, that with the same time on the grass he'd've got 11 goals so far this season in the league


and averaged for the rest of the season

26.44 = 26.44 for "Doyle's Average Time on Pitch" DOYLE
15.56 = 23.38 for "Doyle's Average Time on Pitch" HUNT
04.67 = 16.79 for "Doyle's Average Time on Pitch" LONG


So yeah, OK, the kid on scraps is playing the Doyle equivalent of about 17 goals a season compared to 26 for Doyle

Not bad, though for a kid just 22 years old and still learning his trade

[Royal Rother]

I really liked this post so I'm going to quote it, with a fresh angle and suggest that you use this as your avatar Snowball....

Oops! Here comes another stat...

[RG30]

He'll be our striker till the end of the season, by which time I expect him to leave regardless of which league we're in. We should make a sizeable return on our investment (effectively he was a punt) and Long will ask questions of why he never got the run of games he needed while Coppell will look back, maybe with some regret that he didn't give him the loan move he so desperately needed.

Still, he'll prove a useful sub between now and the end of the season, whether he can step up to the challenge when we need him most remains to be seen.

[Royal Rother]

True, sorry, missed that one. I'm just too busy laughing at Snowball's desperate attempts to show Long is a real footballer.

This isn't desperation, it is utter brilliance. A welcome addition to the board!

[cmonurz]

Long grabs the odd goal. When he comes on as a sub and doesn't score, the impact of him not doing so is less.

You make this statistical claim that Long scores a goal every 2.2 games he plays, yet your own stats show that his rate is 1 goal every 4 games when he has started for Reading. And that's the crux of it. When he has started, Long has proven, in the main, to be relative ineffective.

Does that 'prove' he plays worse when he starts? No, it doesn't, but it illustrates the impact that is relatively poor scoring record can have on the team as a whole.

[Snowball]

A striker needs to Score more though!




Doyle has started TWENTY-EIGHT times (17 goals)
He has played 3.6 times as many minutes as Long (same minutes Long would be 11 goals)
To be as good as Doyle, Long would need to be scoring 4.7 goals to date. He has 3.

Hunt has started Twenty-Two times (10 goals)
He has played 2.5 times as many minutes as Long (same minutes Long would be 11 goals)
To be as good as Hunt, Long would need to be scoring 4.0 goals to date. He has 3.


Long has started just THREE times (3 goals)

It's not ideal for a striker to break through, is it?



With the same time on the pitch, LONG would be scoring 16 goals this season
probably more than that, because more playing time would bring him on

[John Madejski's Wallet]

Snowball = Genius

Though all these stats show a worrying indication of an overly geeky and obsessive mind!!

p.s. use that avatar someone gave you further up the page

[Archie's penalty]

I also am enjoying Snowball's attempts. Well done Chum!

One question? How do you choose an avatar? Normal pictures are too large to use.

[Royal Rother]

Resize any picture using this. (There are others that might be easier...)

http://www.jql.co.uk/avatarsizer.htm

[Archie's penalty]

Resize any picture using this. (There are others that might be easier...)

http://www.jql.co.uk/avatarsizer.htm

Ta. Harps is a pointing on mine now!

[Ian Royal]

In one way I would like to see Long start for the rest of the season, just so we can see Snowball is so utterly wrong in his assessment of Long. Unfortunately that would mean we'd probably fail to make the Play offs, so I guess it's for the best he won't.

I think Snowball has a bit of a problem. I'd enjoy his posts a lot more if they weren't cram packed full of completely superfluous statistics all the time.

Less is more.