Anyone Noticed Our run-in?

[readingbedding]

“Man United away means nothing to me until it is the next match on the horizon,” he said. “We’ve got some important games between now and then and they take priority.”

[Snowball]

But the mentality of a SC team and the way he motivates them typically means that after a defeat he challenges them to respond, which they frequently do.

So I suspect that the statistical analysis doesn't take into account the attitude, mentality and management style of a specific team.

So you mean

THE TEAM PLAYS DIFFERENTLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEFEAT.


THEREFORE THE TWO GAMES ARE NOT INDEPENDENT!

[Snowball]

“Man United away means nothing to me until it is the next match on the horizon,” he said. “We’ve got some important games between now and then and they take priority.”

That is completely different.

All that means is keeping the players focused on the most immediate game
same as (other) managers have to try and keep the focus on the league when
their team has a cup run.

I'm not saying AT ALL that the players or manager will be thinking about QPR today-Monday-Tuesday

But if they were to lose to Wolves, THAT (we would have just one win in six) could effect them at QPR..


For one thing we would have lost the automatic bounce-back rule.

[Snowball]

So I suspect that the statistical analysis doesn't take into account the attitude, mentality and management style of a specific team.


But we all know teams get dragged into bad runs, or start winning and then go on a winning run.

Of course results are not independent of each other!

Whether that's the manager's team-talk or "in players' heads" is not the point. The facts are facts, results are not random


Look at Swansea. eight consecutive draws, finally they win and have now won 3 on the trot


Or look at us in the 106 season... After a while confidence grows, you run 2% faster, win a 49-51 tackle, the keeper reaches a shot he shouldn't and so on.

Or look at the relegation season, and Doyle's six goals in 38, a third of this year's 17 in 28

Of course it's harder to score in the Prem, but how much is confidence and being on a roll?

[Bucks Dave]

It looks to me like the top 3 are wobbling.

Last 6 league games since Dec 13 are as follows:

Wolves WWDDLD 9 points
Reading WWDDWL 11 points
Brum LLWDDL 5 points

If you read the actual match reports of the 3 teams none of us at the moment look worldbeating, even when winning. However, admitting my bias, I do believe Coppell is the best of the three managers and our squad is the most settled. The real key maybe what started this thread, we do seem to have the marginally easier run in. So, almost regardless of the result on Tuesday I still am optimistic.

[Dirk Gently]

But the mentality of a SC team and the way he motivates them typically means that after a defeat he challenges them to respond, which they frequently do.

So I suspect that the statistical analysis doesn't take into account the attitude, mentality and management style of a specific team.

So you mean

THE TEAM PLAYS DIFFERENTLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEFEAT.


THEREFORE THE TWO GAMES ARE NOT INDEPENDENT!

Of course they're not independent - I never said they were!

What I'm saying is that for every team that's knocked down and more likely to lose there's another team which is more motivated and performs better in the next game, and so the statistics of other games are meaningless unless you know the characteristics and attitude of the team you're talking about.

PS - I also had Armstrong to score first v Watford at 28/1 so I'm laughing. The double of first scorer and final score is a complete mug's game, in my opinion. Yes, great odds, but too many variables to make them winnable!

[Ian Royal]

Snowball, FFS stop spamming a load of meaningless figures.

Wolves at home isn't a hugely significant result if we lose or draw. It IS if we win.

Allow me to explain.

Wolves are still the standout team in the division. They are going to be out for revenge for our win at their place and to restart their championship title push. Not only that, we can also point at the temporary loss of our excellent right back for the game.

As such the Wolves result, should it not be what we want, can be written off and the team can go into the next game without any big worries. Providing we aren't humiliated of course. QPR are a threat, but no more so than a dozen other teams in the division.

Of course should we win, then that will be a massive morale boost and an indicator we really are the best team in the division, despite what the league table currently says. Confidence into the QPR game will run high, given the fact we should get a result against them anyway, it should be a win. Of course it's a game of football and they're a decent team so a loss or draw is still quite possible.


I'd suggest that 2-2 is very far from the most likely result. Reading are and have been for at least 3 years, if not since Coppell took over, or longer, a team which goes for complete results. Win, or lose trying tends to be our attitude.

When you look at the 55 games played by us and Wolves so far this season there are a total of 11 draws. So a 5th of the time the two teams are drawing. That makes a draw pretty unlikely IMO. although 2-2 has cropped up 5 times, so is statistically the most likely draw from that perspective. Although, of course such a simple stat could never show you the whole picture.

[dudleywolf]

You lot are total statto's ! We are coming tomorrow night on a revenge mission, may the best team win. Is S Hunt playing or is he in the departure lounge?

[Snowball]

PS - I also had Armstrong to score first v Watford at 28/1 so I'm laughing.
The double of first scorer and final score is a complete mug's game, in my opinion. Yes, great odds, but too many variables to make them winnable!

I agree it's a dumb bet. I only do it for fun. Extra spice.

I must have had FG right ten-twelve times and then blown it.

But I've come up three times in the last two years
(and I had Henry FG and 4-0 at the Emirates) so
I'm ahead a whole lotta pounds

[Snowball]

You lot are total statto's !


Nah, that's just me.

Most of the time we just say stuff. It's a bit like an Eastern divorce... say "I divorce thee" three times and that's it.

So Biscuiters think, repeat summat three times and then it will be true. COS I SAID SO!

Our captain is, crap, bad, not much, fair, OK, good, brilliant and underrated, worth 75p and 7 Million all at the same time...

[Snowball]

Wolves at home isn't a hugely significant result if we lose or draw. It IS if we win.

Disagree, but DO carry on

Allow me to explain.

as I said...

Wolves are still the standout team in the division.

No they are TOP. I've seen them a lot of times and they've not struck me as great in any of those games.

And that's not "a Reading fan" just saying that. I can see their results, and their stats but they have had
some real luck in three games and have been tanked a few times. Lita hat-trick at NORWICH?

A guy who score 1 goal a season for us, puts three past their poor defence while
playing for a near-relegation side?

They are going to be out for revenge for our win at their place and to restart their championship title push.

Agreed (in theory) but I think both sides will be cautious for the first 20 minutes at least.

Not only that, we can also point at the temporary loss of our excellent right back for the game.

Yes, does that mean a change of game plan for Reading though?
Are we REALLY going to be gung-ho down the right with a less-defensive RW
and a rookie RB? I'd be surprised if we were.

As such the Wolves result, should it not be what we want, can be written off

Disagree.
So you're saying lose ONE player and it's OK to lose at home?
That suggests a thin squad and rubbish reserves.

I also think, a defeat (one win in six games) could start a real crisis.

and the team can go into the next game without any big worries.

Disagree, see above. We know how a few bad results clustered can lead to more bad results.

Providing we aren't humiliated of course.

Not saying that WILL happen, but it COULD

QPR are a threat, but no more so than a dozen other teams in the division.

They drew 0-0 at the Mad.
They beat Birmigham 1-0
They beat Wolves 1-0

If we lose to Wolves they'll beat us too.

Of course should we win, then that will be a massive morale boost
and an indicator we really are the best team in the division, despite
what the league table currently says.

YUP! We beat them I think we will win this league

Still don't like going to QPR though

Confidence into the QPR game will run high, given the fact we should get a result
against them anyway, it should be a win. Of course it's a game of football and they're
a decent team so a loss or draw is still quite possible.

Unless it's postponed. Talk about covering all the bases!!

I'd suggest that 2-2 is very far from the most likely result.
Reading are and have been for at least 3 years, if not since Coppell took over,
or longer, a team which goes for complete results.
Win, or lose trying tends to be our attitude.

Maybe so, but the Hunt thing and the RB thing
suggests a slightly more cautious approach IMO

And just because we GO FOR a win doesn't mean that we will win or lose, does it?

I really think this could be any result from a great 3-0 win to a 0-3 defeat.

When you look at the 55 games played by us and Wolves so far this season there are a total of 11 draws.
So a 5th of the time the two teams are drawing.
That makes a draw pretty unlikely IMO. although 2-2 has cropped up 5 times, so is statistically the most likely draw from that perspective.
Although, of course such a simple stat could never show you the whole picture.

Where was the LOGIC there?

We are likely to score (only failed once) They are likely to score (only failed once)

Therefore 0-0? (Joke)