How many points will it take?

[dink]

Having seen Birmingham yesterday, I'm revising my prediction down to 84 points for auto promo. Twelve more wins should do it.

Again, following BCFC's lacklustre performance yesterday and their recent dire record, I'm revising my prediction down to 82. A draw on Tuesday and then 9 more wins from the last 17 games and we're there.

Winning our home games alone (not impossible) would put us on 81 points.

[Snowball]

Last four times

94 98 94 106
87 92 86 90
85 80 79 81


Why should we think 85 will be enough?

If Cardiff win their game in hand they'll be on 48 points. If they win two 2-0 to our two losses 0-2
we'd be above them +8 on GD

18 games to go, what say Cardiff W13 D3 L2 = 90 points... W12 D4 L2 88, W11 D5 L2 86, W10 D6 L2 = 84

I'd say get 92 points. That would mean Cardiff having to W14 D2 L2 of their last 18

85 might not be enough if someone wins rather than draws... eg Sheff Utd now 7 behind us
but if they do us at the Mad that's really 4... same with Preston

Many of the chasing pack could beat us Birmingham, Sheffield, Preston, QPR... If we can beat all four of those, then there's only Cardiff to worry about

10 points to make up in 17 would be tough, Brum would need to make up 5 + GD so 6 in 17

[Ian Royal]

Last four times

94 98 94 106
87 92 86 90
85 80 79 81


Why should we think 85 will be enough?

If Cardiff win their game in hand they'll be on 48 points. If they win two 2-0 to our two losses 0-2
we'd be above them +8 on GD

18 games to go, what say Cardiff W13 D3 L2 = 90 points... W12 D4 L2 88, W11 D5 L2 86, W10 D6 L2 = 84

I'd say get 92 points. That would mean Cardiff having to W14 D2 L2 of their last 18

85 might not be enough if someone wins rather than draws... eg Sheff Utd now 7 behind us
but if they do us at the Mad that's really 4... same with Preston

Many of the chasing pack could beat us Birmingham, Sheffield, Preston, QPR... If we can beat all four of those, then there's only Cardiff to worry about

10 points to make up in 17 would be tough, Brum would need to make up 5 + GD so 6 in 17

Err... you're own stats say it would have been enough for the last 4 years.

[Snowball]

Last four times

94 98 94 106
87 92 86 90
85 80 79 81


Why should we think 85 will be enough?

If Cardiff win their game in hand they'll be on 48 points. If they win two 2-0 to our two losses 0-2
we'd be above them +8 on GD

18 games to go, what say Cardiff W13 D3 L2 = 90 points... W12 D4 L2 88, W11 D5 L2 86, W10 D6 L2 = 84

I'd say get 92 points. That would mean Cardiff having to W14 D2 L2 of their last 18

85 might not be enough if someone wins rather than draws... eg Sheff Utd now 7 behind us
but if they do us at the Mad that's really 4... same with Preston

Many of the chasing pack could beat us Birmingham, Sheffield, Preston, QPR... If we can beat all four of those, then there's only Cardiff to worry about

10 points to make up in 17 would be tough, Brum would need to make up 5 + GD so 6 in 17

Err... you're own stats say it would have been enough for the last 4 years.

Pardon me? 87 92 86 90 for SECOND PLACE

I showed the top three. Last time I looked, 3rd meant the play-offs

[Snowball]

81 88 106 94 94 98 99 = 94 average (92 without the 106)
79 86 90 87 86 92 89 = 87 average (88 without the 79)
=======================
75 84 81 85 79 80 86 Play-Off Place


On average, last seven seasons, it's taken 94 points to win the league

But take away the 106 record, the average is 92, exactly 2 points a game average.

To WIN the league we'll probably need, then 40 points from 18 games

W14 D0 L4
W13 D1 L4
W12 D4 L2
W11 D7 L0

That's one hell of a job!!

Of course the last two seasons have been much tighter overall with lower totals required (let's hope so!)




Second place has needed 87 points average
but last season's 79 was a freak low, without that the average achieved is 88

Twice in the last seven years 85+ has not been enough

87 looks pretty damn certain, though, meaning we need 33 from 18 to be sure, an average of 1.83 points a game, a tough one!!

We are currently averaging 1.93

To get 33 points

W11 D0 L7
W10 D3 L5 <<<< Looks Tough!! but...
W09 D6 L3
W08 D9 L1

On our form so far, including this sticky patch, if overall form maintained we would expect to win 10.26 games

A win v Wolves would mean we'd be averaging 1.97 and would need 30 from 17 (1.76)
A draw v Wolves would mean we'd be averaging 1.89 and would need 32 from 17 (1.88)
A loss v Wolves would mean we'd be averaging 1.86 and would need 33 from 17 (1.94)

[RobRoyal]

Pardon me? 87 92 86 90 for SECOND PLACE

I showed the top three. Last time I looked, 3rd meant the play-offs

But the second place team only needs to get 1 more than the 3rd place team.

Your stat shows what second place teams have happened to get in the last 4 years. It doesn't show what you needed to get to be second. Of course, if you take the third place team out instead and then ask what you needed to get to come second, you'll get different results.

Neither way of thinking about it makes more sense than the other.

[Platypuss]

To echo what RR said - surely if you want to know how many points would historically have been needed to get auto promotion, it's the stats for THIRD place +1 point that matter. Perhaps even level points if you want to factor in a team's massive GD advantage.

The total points accrued by second place are pretty much irrelevant.

[Snowball]

as I said 85 was not enough once
as I said 86 was not enough once

twice in seven years 85+ was not enough


so do we go for 85 and hope
or do we go for 87 and be safe
or do we go for 92 and win the league?

[loyalroyal4life]

as I said 85 was not enough once
as I said 86 was not enough once

twice in seven years 85+ was not enough


so do we go for 85 and hope
or do we go for 87 and be safe
or do we go for 92 and win the league?

how about we go for.... 90

[Snowball]

how about we go for.... 90


good idea... doesn't the side that goes up second usually do better in the Prem?

[Rawlie19]

How about we go for 108 and see what happens along the way?

[loyalroyal4life]

How about we go for 108 and see what happens along the way?

How about.......................... NO

[loyalroyal4life]

how about we go for.... 90


good idea... doesn't the side that goes up second usually do better in the Prem?

well obviously that wasnt the case in 05/06......

[Rawlie19]

How about we go for 108 and see what happens along the way?

How about.......................... NO

So you don't want the team to try and win every game left then? Strange sort of fan you are.

[CMRoyal]

Taking the last 5 seasons as a guide, the maximum we'll need is:-

53 to stay up (well done lads, safe already!)
75 to reach the playoffs
86 for promotion
91 to win the title

Minimums are 43, 68, 76, 80
Averages are 48, 71, 82, 87.

[SLAMMED]

Pardon me? 87 92 86 90 for SECOND PLACE

I showed the top three. Last time I looked, 3rd meant the play-offs

But the second place team only needs to get 1 more than the 3rd place team.

Your stat shows what second place teams have happened to get in the last 4 years. It doesn't show what you needed to get to be second. Of course, if you take the third place team out instead and then ask what you needed to get to come second, you'll get different results.

Neither way of thinking about it makes more sense than the other.

LO OWNED

[Sun Tzu]

Taking the last 5 seasons as a guide, the maximum we'll need is:-

53 to stay up (well done lads, safe already!)
75 to reach the playoffs
86 for promotion
91 to win the title

Minimums are 43, 68, 76, 80
Averages are 48, 71, 82, 87.

How does that work ?

The title has been won with more than 91 in the last 5 years so it cannot be true that the 'maximum' needed to win it is 91... At this stage the 'maximum' is whatever Wolves have plus the number they can still get.

[CMRoyal]

Taking the last 5 seasons as a guide, the maximum we'll need is:-

53 to stay up (well done lads, safe already!)
75 to reach the playoffs
86 for promotion
91 to win the title

Minimums are 43, 68, 76, 80
Averages are 48, 71, 82, 87.

How does that work ?

The title has been won with more than 91 in the last 5 years so it cannot be true that the 'maximum' needed to win it is 91... At this stage the 'maximum' is whatever Wolves have plus the number they can still get.

For example, what I'm saying is that we didn't need 106 points to win the league in '06, we needed 91, ie whatever was needed to beat 2nd place.

[Snowball]

how about we go for.... 90

good idea... doesn't the side that goes up second usually do better in the Prem?

well obviously that wasn't the case in 05/06......

Just looked at the stats. Another myth exploded

YEAR-Following Season?
2001-2 09 19 13
2002-3 13 19 20
2003-4 19 17 18
2004-5 20 10 09
2005-6 08 18 20
2006-7 15 19 20
14 17 17 Average
02 04 04 Relegated

Sides finishing 1st 4 stayed up first season, 2 relegated. 1 has stayed up 6 seasons, 1 stayed up 5, 2 went down second season
Sides finishing 2nd 2 stayed up first season, 4 relegated. 1 has stayed up 4 seasons, 1 stayed up 4 seasons, 1 went down second season
Sides finishing 3rd 1 stayed up first season, 5 relegated. 1 has stayed up 4 seasons. (West Ham)

Finishing First "established" 6th season Man City
Finishing First "established" 5th season Portsmouth
Finishing First "established" 2nd season Sunderland (not yet safe)
Finishing First "established" 2nd season Reading, relegated second season

Finishing 2nd "established" 4th season Wigan
Finishing 2nd "established" 2nd season WBA, relegated second season

Finishing 3rd "established" 3rd season West Ham


So as might be expected, sides finishing top usually do better than those in second
and they both do better than the side winning the play-offs.


No idea where I got the idea this wasn't the case!

[CMRoyal]

Taking the last 5 seasons as a guide, the maximum we'll need is:-

53 to stay up (well done lads, safe already!)
75 to reach the playoffs
86 for promotion
91 to win the title

Minimums are 43, 68, 76, 80
Averages are 48, 71, 82, 87.

How does that work ?

The title has been won with more than 91 in the last 5 years so it cannot be true that the 'maximum' needed to win it is 91... At this stage the 'maximum' is whatever Wolves have plus the number they can still get.

Should add, I acknowledge your last point, but as I said it was just a guide. Hence 'we will' need rather than 'we do' need.