How many points will it take?

[S09Royal]

Snowball, who actually cares?

As long as we're promoted i, along with other Royal fans, will be delighted, no matter how many points we get.
Let's just concentrate on actually achieving this instead of dragging out stats that no one really cares about.

[cmonurz]

Snowball, do you understand that your stats wouldn't work in the same way if we did not still have Birmingham to play?

In every regular season, 3rd + 1 point is enough to secure promotion. That's it.

I'm still waiting for a regular season example of where that is not the case.

[Rawlie19]

I despair. Losing... will... to... live...

And learn to use the quote function.

[Sir Rodney Effing]

Is this all jolly good fun, isn't it?

What if we had a couple of points deducted for, say, a Hunt mistimed tackle?

Perhaps it would come down to goal difference.

But wait! Birmingham beat us 3-1 on last game of the season!!

A 3-1 away win for both teams!!!

Over to you, chaps!

[cmonurz]

Is this all jolly good fun, isn't it?

What if we had a couple of points deducted for, say, a Hunt mistimed tackle?

Perhaps it would come down to goal difference.

But wait! Birmingham beat us 3-1 on last game of the season!!

A 3-1 away win for both teams!!!

Over to you, chaps!

An arm wrestle between Snowball and Kevin Phillips?

[dellwoodboy]

I previously posted on this subject on Page 1 back in December and though my formula was hoo-ha'd by some people I still think it is a good guide. Looking at the current situation with the top three sides faltering the aim is now for 87 points which is a figure several other posters have mentioned.
Looking at the premiership at the moment you can see that 39/40 points are going to be needed to stay up.

[PEARCEY]

I previously posted on this subject on Page 1 back in December and though my formula was hoo-ha'd by some people I still think it is a good guide. Looking at the current situation with the top three sides faltering the aim is now for 87 points which is a figure several other posters have mentioned.
Looking at the premiership at the moment you can see that 39/40 points are going to be needed to stay up.

Yep. Fair comment. Last season it was obvious halfway through the season we would not need as many as 40 points to stay up because so many teams were struggling to average a point per game. Its different this season with most of the weaker sides averaging aound a point per game...even West Brom who are bottom have 21 points from 22 games...so I suspect 40 points as a minimum will be needed to avoid the bottom three this season.

[papereyes]

Just a thought on "statistics"


Bookmakers use statistics to set football odds

Bookmakers make profits. Punters lose

Because they take the stats and then make a small weighting in their favour to ensure that they win.

[Rawlie19]

At the risk of sparking it all off again, these are my predictions as of 28th Jan 2009:..

1 Reading 91
2 Wolves 89
----------------
3 Brum 81
4 Cardiff 79
5 Preston 77
6 Sheff U 76

Brum v Cardiff play-off final, cardiff winning.

So, 82 points will see us promoted

If I get all the above predictions spot on I will buy you all a drink*

*probably not though...

[CMRoyal]

You lot are probably all too cool to buy the official programme, but coincidentally they had a feature on the "how many points did 2nd get/what was required to get autopromoted" interface in last night's edition. Just thought I'd warn you so you could avoid it.

[Rawlie19]

You lot are probably all too cool to buy the official programme, but coincidentally they had a feature on the "how many points did 2nd get/what was required to get autopromoted" interface in last night's edition. Just thought I'd warn you so you could avoid it.

Was it written by Snowball?

[CMRoyal]

You lot are probably all too cool to buy the official programme, but coincidentally they had a feature on the "how many points did 2nd get/what was required to get autopromoted" interface in last night's edition. Just thought I'd warn you so you could avoid it.

Was it written by Snowball?

Don't think so, it was only two pages long.

[Dirk Gently]

This may help - regulars will know I waste my time on something like this every year.

Graph of points predicted by matches played - very useful for seeing trends etc. Click on the thumbnail for the full graph.

Currently :

Wolves = 93
Reading = 89
Brum = 87

[CMRoyal]

On an average (mean) of points per game so far and points per last 6 matches, I get this:-

1. Reading - 89
2. Wolves - 85
3. Brum - 82

[Ian Royal]

On an average (mean) of points per game so far and points per last 6 matches, I get this:-

1. Reading - 89
2. Wolves - 85
3. Brum - 82

Oh look 85 gets you second.

[CMRoyal]

On an average (mean) of points per game so far and points per last 6 matches, I get this:-

1. Reading - 89
2. Wolves - 85
3. Brum - 82

Oh look 85 gets you second.

...yet 83 would be enough for autopromotion.

[Ian Royal]

Certainly would. So would 82 with a better GD than B'ham.

[Arch]

At the risk of sparking it all off again, these are my predictions as of 28th Jan 2009:..

1 Reading 91
2 Wolves 89
----------------
3 Brum 81
4 Cardiff 79
5 Preston 77
6 Sheff U 76

Brum v Cardiff play-off final, cardiff winning.

So, 82 points will see us promoted

If I get all the above predictions spot on I will buy you all a drink*

*probably not though...

I fancy both QPR and Swansea to get into that mix, probably at the expense of Blades and Preston. Cardiff are a good call for playoff winners.

[Rawlie19]

On an average (mean) of points per game so far and points per last 6 matches, I get this:-

1. Reading - 89
2. Wolves - 85
3. Brum - 82

Oh look 85 gets you second.

Not if you're Brum it doesn't

[Platypuss]

On an average (mean) of points per game so far and points per last 6 matches, I get this:-

1. Reading - 89
2. Wolves - 85
3. Brum - 82

Interestingly*, using an 8 game metric, perhaps surprisingly, we have the best form.

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/oform.html