Odds to be top at end of season

[SLAMMED]

He did manage the apostrophe on You've though.

[Rex]

TBF it did actually read as:

In the time of chimpanzees, I was a monkey
Butane in my veins and I'm out to cut the junkie
With the plastic eyeballs, spray-paint the vegetables
Dog food stalls with the beefcake pantyhose

[Snowball]

1 win in 7??!!

does that not constitute wheels off already?

We only have 2 in 7.

There is no comparison

Last 7 and last 12

W2 D4 L1 07-05 10 points and that's immediately following WWWW 12-04 15 points. 12 games W7 D5 L1 25 points 19-09 READING
W1 D2 L3 09-11 05 points and that's immediately following WWDDL 07-06 08 points. 12 games W3 D4 L4 13 points 16-17 WOLVES

So we've gained 5 points and 4 goals GD in that last 7,
and if you look at the last 12 we have gained TWELVE POINTS and a 13 goal GD, so 13 points effectively

[Snowball]

A win and a draw from the two games in hand would be good enough to go top,
if Brum win their game in hand on Wolves also it would make an interesting 3 way tie at the top with 63 points.

One or both of Cardiff and Wolves WILL drop points in their very next game as they are playing each other!!


Those six-pointers are going to make a big difference as the season closes and don't forget BIRMINGHAM v WOLVES is still to come.

So if Cardiff, IF, win their three games in hand, (that's a HUGE IF) they'll be two points behind us
with a worse GD. They will need to get something at Wolves.

If they win Wolves will probably implode. If it's a draw we have an extra chance to catch and pass Wolves

[Snowball]

:roll:

Big deal. I'm not denying Wolves are struggling, but let's actually win our games in hand before we start crowing about the wheels coming off at Molineux. We are hardly pulling up trees ourselves at the moment.

Our wobbling form doesn't mean that the wheels aren't coming off at Wolves. I'd certainly like to see a draw between Wolves and Cardiff, but can't see much past a Welsh win right now.

10pts in 7 is considerably better than 5pts in 7 as well. Although still pretty poor.

10 in 7 versus Wolves (TOP), Preston (4th), Cardiff (5th), QPR (10th), SWANSEA and a 4-0 win v Watford


So we beat the side in top and four of the other five are on VERY good runs of form
half this list think Cardiff might get an automatic promotion spot.

WE-HAVE-BEEN-PLAYING-GOOD-(RARELY DEFEATED)-SIDES and we beat the others.

16 games unbeaten, Swansea
12 games undefeated, Cardiff
10 games unbeaten, QPR
3 defeats in 18 games Preston

[cmonurz]

WE-HAVE-BEEN-PLAYING-GOOD-(RARELY DEFEATED)-SIDES and we beat the others.

16 games unbeaten, Swansea
12 games undefeated, Cardiff
10 games unbeaten, QPR
3 defeats in 18 games Preston

So in other words, despite being apparently the best team in the division, the minute we come up against a team in form, we fail to win.

Uh-oh, Bristol City next week.

[66DD]

I don't see how yesterday can be be classed a good day for the Royals.

At the of the day we have dropped a place in the league and are no nearer the leading team.

[Ian Royal]

So now Snowball is picking 12 game form to prove his points. Oh look that just happens to be the right cut off point to include our 5 game winning streak. what a coincidence.

[SCIAG]

but would it be a good thing if Cardiff won at Wolves next week?

A month ago I'd have said yes please, but not so sure at all now.

Which Teamboard sage can advise?

I'm quite possibly the exact opposite of sage...

I want Wolves to win. A larger gap between us and first and us and third is better than a smaller gap between those two sides. See: Wolves' fans when we played Birmingham.

[SLAMMED]

I don't see how yesterday can be be classed a good day for the Royals.

At the of the day we have dropped a place in the league and are no nearer the leading team.

But we now have 2 games in hand over them only 4 points behind

How is Wolves losing not good for Reading? Idiot

[1960]

We only have two games left against teams in the top 6 at the moment. Both at home, Sheff Utd and Birmingham. I'm sure rivals will have more against each other. As said before they will have to take points off each other which will favour us. eg Wolves beat Cardiff and Cardiff are a potential 5 points behind us instead of a potential 2 points. A draw and cardiff are 4 away from us and Wolves are 5 points ahead of us, but with three games to play for us. A Cardiff win and Wolves are only 4 points ahead of us with our three games to make up. Some better statto than me can probably list all the 6-pointers involving the top 6 and including Swansea and maybe Burnley and Bristol, as they are all in the hunt for a play-off place.

[1960]

OK, I have found time to do this. I think it's quite helpful, because, for example, if Cardiff go on a run it means that they are depriving other teams of points. These are the remaining fixtures involving the current top 9:

Wolves v Cardiff
Sheff V Brum
Brum v Bristol
Bristol v Cardiff
Cardiff v Sheff
Brum v Wolves
Bristol v PNE
Cardiff v Swansea
Cardiff v Burnley
Burnley v Sheff
PNE v Cardiff
Swansea v Bristol
Brum v PNE
Sheff V Swansea
Burnley V Bristol

We have Bristol, Sheff and Brum (all at home).

The number of these 6-pointers for each team is:

Wolves 2
Cardiff 6
Sheff 5
Brum 5
Bristol 6
PNE 3
Swansea 2
Burnley 3
Reading 3

This means that if Cardiff or Brum or Sheff or Bristol take lots of points then someone else isn't. It also means that they are playing top-nine teams in a lot of their matches, so their schedule is harder. Wolves and Swansea get off pretty clear, but they both have one game at home and one away. That leaves us and PNE. They have two of their three away. We have all three at home.

So what does all this prove? Bugger all.

[Snowball]

So now Snowball is picking 12 game form to prove his points. Oh look that just happens to be the right cut off point to include our 5 game winning streak. what a coincidence.

God you are SUCH a dick

Here is what I said (and why)

First comonurz mentioned the last seven (not me)

and (a) our last seven is a sight better than Wolves (almost a point a game more)

BUT (I know this is difficult Ian cos it means holding two thoughts at the same time)

OUR (five-points-better-than-Wolves-7-game-run)
immediately followed a VERY GOOD run AND THAT, IS, OF COURSE RELEVANT (except to morons)

so if it's not relevant to you...

Tell you what, why don't YOU announce what is a reasonable number of matches to assess form?

I would say, "at least 10-12 games"... YOU pick.


If reading go and win five on the trot now, will you insist we include these last seven games?







There is no comparison

Last 7 and last 12

W2 D4 L1 07-05 10 points and that's immediately following WWWW 12-04 15 points. 12 games W7 D5 L1 25 points 19-09 READING
W1 D2 L3 09-11 05 points and that's immediately following WWDDL 07-06 08 points. 12 games W3 D4 L4 13 points 16-17 WOLVES

[Snowball]

We only have two games left against teams in the top 6 at the moment. Both at home, Sheff Utd and Birmingham. I'm sure rivals will have more against each other. As said before they will have to take points off each other which will favour us. eg Wolves beat Cardiff and Cardiff are a potential 5 points behind us instead of a potential 2 points. A draw and cardiff are 4 away from us and Wolves are 5 points ahead of us, but with three games to play for us. A Cardiff win and Wolves are only 4 points ahead of us with our three games to make up. Some better statto than me can probably list all the 6-pointers involving the top 6 and including Swansea and maybe Burnley and Bristol, as they are all in the hunt for a play-off place.

I dug them all out and put it on some other thread

We are favourites because the others sides have such a tough run in
and will hurt each other

[Snowball]

WE-HAVE-BEEN-PLAYING-GOOD-(RARELY DEFEATED)-SIDES and we beat the others.

16 games unbeaten, Swansea
12 games undefeated, Cardiff
10 games unbeaten, QPR
3 defeats in 18 games Preston

So in other words, despite being apparently the best team in the division, the minute we come up against a team in form, we fail to win.

Uh-oh, Bristol City next week.

God you're a miserable b------


Another way to phrase it is this:

After a stunning run of wins, Reading gained six points on Birmingham and eight on Wolves,
then they came a cropper away to a side in stunning form (now 16 games undefeated)
but they bounced back immediately, beat the league-leaders Then got an excellent 0-0 draw away at in-form QPR,
They failed to win at home to a side who are now fourth (but kept their fourth consecutive clean-sheet)
and now know a win and a draw from their two games in hand takes them top

[Ian Royal]

I've already said I'd only use 5 for recent form, 10 for a reasonable length of time and maybe 15 or 20, but those are a bit superfluous in my opinion. 5 because it's half of 10 and 10 because there's no point paying attention to the table until you've played at least 10 at the start of the season.

Why if we were talking 7 games, did you not take the preceding seven games to prove your point against cmonurz? Oh that's right, because if you chopped two off it made your point stronger.

You manipulate the figures you use to make your point and seem incapable of real analytical thought. You have no intention of letting the stats inform your preconceptions, merely pick the ones which reinforce them.


Oh and our run of 5 wins was anything BUT stunning. Rather revisionist of you, but then that's what I'd expect. And of course that run can't be considered very significant because 4 of the wins were against teams below midtable. Your own rules, not mine.

[dennis nelson]

looking at the odds checker, skybet have charlton at 200/1 to win the league!!! should be at least 10,000/1
more chance of madejski winning the high jump at the next olympics

[IMAMATEOFJOVSKY]

looking at the odds checker, skybet have charlton at 200/1 to win the league!!! should be at least 10,000/1
more chance of madejski winning the high jump at the next olympics

I'd have said more chance of Madejski spending a few million next season!

[66DD]

I don't see how yesterday can be be classed a good day for the Royals.

At the of the day we have dropped a place in the league and are no nearer the leading team.

But we now have 2 games in hand over them only 4 points behind

How is Wolves losing not good for Reading? Idiot

I feel somewhat concerned about you feeling the need to use personal insults to emphasise your disagreement with the point that I had posted. Your lack of tolerance of other people's opinions is quite worrying in someone who is a regular participant on this message board. Indeed such a lack of tolerance to diversity of opinion could, in some circumstances, be construed as similar to that displayed by one of any number of the fascists who have tormented the existence of free thinkers throughout history.

[Mr Angry]

Saturday was an ok day for us, bearing in mind we didn't play! Obviously, it would have been better if Brum had lost 10-0 and had 3 players sent off, but hey ho!!

If we collect 4 points from our games in hand, we can overtake Wolves - this is the first time this season we have been in this position.

Sure, Brum are ahead of us, but only by a point and we have a game in hand on them; if it gets to the last day of the season, even if they are 3 points ahead of us we could still overtake them with a win.

If you think things are bad for us, imagine how the Wolves fans are doing this morning!!!