Why Lita Doesn't Work

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Gus the teenage cow
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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Gus the teenage cow » 03 Mar 2009 00:57

Snowball
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Snowball Lita-Doyle this season in round figures. 0 Goals


according to my opta stats based on avergage number of shots at goals and average number of goals per shot (shooting accuracy in terms of goal scored) if lita-doyle had played as many times as doyle-hunt the statistical probability is they would have scored 28 goals, of course there is no way of proving that this would have happened, this reverse-orientated hypothesis can only tell us what would have LIKELY happened


Lita was on needing 14 shots to get a goal.

Did he manage a shot Saturday and thus make his average even worse
or did he just not manage a shot at all?


i don't know where you got that stat from but it is misleading the massive

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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Dr Hfuhruhurr » 03 Mar 2009 08:14

Gus the teenage cow
i don't know where you got that stat from but it is misleading the massive


Can I see your Opta stats, as Im not quite sure of Lita's Shot / Goal tally given he has scored only once this year.

Hate to think how many goals Doyle / Federici would have got using your logic.

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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Snowball » 03 Mar 2009 10:08

Gus the teenage cow
i don't know where you got that stat from but it is misleading the massive


CLUB WEB SITE STATS

SHOTS

Leroy Lita

League

8 on target
7 off target
0 hit woodwork

That's 15 shots for 1 goal

He has also had 3-3 no goals in cups.


As I say, these are not MY statistics, they are the club's.


For Norwich he was 49/7.. total all league games 64/8 (8 shots for a goal)


But FOR READING, it's now 15 shots to score a goal.

Let's not talk about the chances where he doesn't get a shot off.

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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Snowball » 03 Mar 2009 10:11

Dr Hfuhruhurr
Gus the teenage cow
i don't know where you got that stat from but it is misleading the massive


Can I see your Opta stats, as Im not quite sure of Lita's Shot / Goal tally given he has scored only once this year.

Hate to think how many goals Doyle / Federici would have got using your logic.


The stats are straight off the club's web-site. At Norwich he scored one goal every seven shots. For us

For Reading (League)

2008-09 15 shots 1 goal
2007-08 20 shots 1 goal

Two years combined (so far) 17.5 shots required to score 1 goal.

Unless these stats are being made up by an evil doctor, these are FACTS

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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Snowball » 03 Mar 2009 11:00

On the rumour board there's talk of Notts Forest being interested in Lita
but what interested me were the old posts about attitude, fights, arrogance.

I've written already about why I think Lita is bad for Reading. He is disloyal,
selfish, won't sign (his privilege) won't sit on the bench, would rather shoot
than pass even when a player is free.


However, the rumour thread made me look at the form immediately before he arrived and form since.

YES, I KNOW THERE ARE OTHER POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS, BUT THE FOLLOWING ARE STILL FACTS

In the 8 games prior to Lita's return we drew 3 and won 5 on the trot DWWWWWDD

That is 18 points from 8 games = 2.25 points a game, I have used 8 games to make a direct match, 8 games before, 8 since his return

P8 W5 D3 L0 14-06 = 2.25 Points a game, Championship form

LITA RETURNS

P8 W2 D2 L4 05-07 = "1 point a game" (equivalent) Relegation form

If you go back a little more to include the home defeat by Southampton we still averaged 2.25 a game over the 12 games prior to Lita arriving

If you want to drop the cup defeat at Cardiff and compare 7 games versus 7 then in the 7 prior to Lita's return we were WWWWWDD 12-4 = 17 points from 7 games = 2.43 per game

Since Lita's return we are P7 W2 D2 L3 5-5 = 8 league points = 1.14 per game




A L 0-2 Cardiff City (Cup) (Started)
H W 4-0 Watford FLC (on as sub, scored in 90th min)
A L 0-2 Swansea City (on a sub, blew chance for equaliser
H W 1-0 Wolves (on as sub for last 8 minutes)
A D 0-0 QPR (Started)
H D 0-0 Preston (Started)
H L 0-2 Bristol City (Started)
H L 0-1 Nottm Forest (on as sub 77th min)


P8 W2 D2 L4 5-7 = "1 point a game" (equivalent)

A Cardiff City D 2-2

H Coventry City W 3-1
A Barnsley W 1-0
H Blackpool W 1-0
H Norwich City W 2-0
A Birmingham W 3-1
H Cardiff City D 1-1
A Southampton D 1-1

14-6 18 Points

2.25


A Bristol City W 4-1
H Derby County W 3-0
A Sheffield Utd W 2-0
H Southampton L 1-2

24-Sep

27 Points

2.25


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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Maguire » 03 Mar 2009 12:55

I'm 99% certain you're a massive racist.

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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Alan Partridge » 03 Mar 2009 13:02

Eveyone knows it's all Lita's fault.

in fact when I heard about what's going on in Sri Lanka today I immediately thought I bet Lita is involved.

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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Maguire » 03 Mar 2009 13:10

Alan Partridge Eveyone knows it's all Lita's fault.

in fact when I heard about what's going on in Sri Lanka today I immediately thought I bet Lita is involved.


With 600 rounds fired and fewer than 10 hitting their target, he's got to be high up the list of suspects.

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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Alan Partridge » 03 Mar 2009 13:11

Maguire
Alan Partridge Eveyone knows it's all Lita's fault.

in fact when I heard about what's going on in Sri Lanka today I immediately thought I bet Lita is involved.


With 600 rounds fired and less than 10 hitting their target, he's got to be high up the list of suspects.


I set them up you knock them in.

I heard the coach took a bit of a battering so I presume Lita enlisted the help of the Scorpions.


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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Royal Rother » 03 Mar 2009 13:14

Maguire
Alan Partridge Eveyone knows it's all Lita's fault.

in fact when I heard about what's going on in Sri Lanka today I immediately thought I bet Lita is involved.


With 600 rounds fired and fewer than 10 hitting their target, he's got to be high up the list of suspects.


Brilliant work!!! :lol: :lol: Best Hobnob laugh for ages!

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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Dr Hfuhruhurr » 03 Mar 2009 13:26

Snowball On the rumour board there's talk of Notts Forest being interested in Lita
but what interested me were the old posts about attitude, fights, arrogance.

I've written already about why I think Lita is bad for Reading. He is disloyal,
selfish, won't sign (his privilege) won't sit on the bench, would rather shoot
than pass even when a player is free.


However, the rumour thread made me look at the form immediately before he arrived and form since.

YES, I KNOW THERE ARE OTHER POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS, BUT THE FOLLOWING ARE STILL FACTS

In the 8 games prior to Lita's return we drew 3 and won 5 on the trot DWWWWWDD

That is 18 points from 8 games = 2.25 points a game, I have used 8 games to make a direct match, 8 games before, 8 since his return

P8 W5 D3 L0 14-06 = 2.25 Points a game, Championship form

LITA RETURNS

P8 W2 D2 L4 05-07 = "1 point a game" (equivalent) Relegation form

If you go back a little more to include the home defeat by Southampton we still averaged 2.25 a game over the 12 games prior to Lita arriving

If you want to drop the cup defeat at Cardiff and compare 7 games versus 7 then in the 7 prior to Lita's return we were WWWWWDD 12-4 = 17 points from 7 games = 2.43 per game

Since Lita's return we are P7 W2 D2 L3 5-5 = 8 league points = 1.14 per game




A L 0-2 Cardiff City (Cup) (Started)
H W 4-0 Watford FLC (on as sub, scored in 90th min)
A L 0-2 Swansea City (on a sub, blew chance for equaliser
H W 1-0 Wolves (on as sub for last 8 minutes)
A D 0-0 QPR (Started)
H D 0-0 Preston (Started)
H L 0-2 Bristol City (Started)
H L 0-1 Nottm Forest (on as sub 77th min)


P8 W2 D2 L4 5-7 = "1 point a game" (equivalent)

A Cardiff City D 2-2

H Coventry City W 3-1
A Barnsley W 1-0
H Blackpool W 1-0
H Norwich City W 2-0
A Birmingham W 3-1
H Cardiff City D 1-1
A Southampton D 1-1

14-6 18 Points

2.25


A Bristol City W 4-1
H Derby County W 3-0
A Sheffield Utd W 2-0
H Southampton L 1-2

24-Sep

27 Points

2.25



Very Interesting. I feel we should use stats to decide who is in our team next week.
Im of the firm opinion that Jay Tabb should be excluded. What is his Average Point rating?

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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Snowball » 04 Mar 2009 02:07

Maguire I'm 99% certain you're a massive racist.


Yeah right. I don't like Lita, the man. I don't like Lita the player. I couldn't give a sh!t what colour he is.

He wasn't in the squad tonight and they won.


And the much-maligned Shane Long scored the winner AND kicked one off the line in added-time.

That makes long 12 shots, 4 goals = 3 shots for a goal.... Compares well with Lita's FIFTEEN shots for a goal dunnit?

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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Snowball » 04 Mar 2009 02:10

Dr Hfuhruhurr [


Very Interesting. I feel we should use stats to decide who is in our team next week.



Coppell already did. That's why he said Lita starting doesn't work and dropped him from the team AND the bench tonight


Lita not at the club, 8 games WWWWWDDD = 18 points

Lita at the club, 8 games, W - WDDLLLL = "8 points"

Lita dropped from the squad, and we win.


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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Rex » 04 Mar 2009 03:52

Coppells already stated the Lita has had the time on the pitch to turn things around. He hasn't produced so is not in the team. That seems fair enough. Long wasn't even making the bench. Tonight - Long did what is expected of him. He needs to be consistent with his chances and take them.

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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Snowball » 04 Mar 2009 14:56

royalexile Coppells already stated the Lita has had the time on the pitch to turn things around. He hasn't produced so is not in the team. That seems fair enough. Long wasn't even making the bench. Tonight - Long did what is expected of him. He needs to be consistent with his chances and take them.




12 shots for 4 goals, better conversion rate this season than Doyle & Hunt

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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by cmonurz » 04 Mar 2009 15:35

It is a good conversion record, no doubt, but it's harder to score 1 in 3 when from 54 shots, than from 12, if you get my point.

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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Snowball » 04 Mar 2009 20:15

cmonurz It is a good conversion record, no doubt, but it's harder to score 1 in 3 when from 54 shots, than from 12, if you get my point.


No it isn't.

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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by cmonurz » 04 Mar 2009 22:27

Snowball
cmonurz It is a good conversion record, no doubt, but it's harder to score 1 in 3 when from 54 shots, than from 12, if you get my point.


No it isn't.


Yes, it is.

Take Federici's goalscoring record for Reading. Doesn't he have 1 goal from 1 shot in competitive matches? I'd like to see him keep that up. It's the same principle

As I said, Long has a decent record, but come on Prof, don't try to kid me and others that a small sample is as useful as a large sample. In such a small sample as 12 shots on goal, there are far too many variables to consider it a statistical certainty if extrapolated to a larger sample.

In fact, you probably don't want to bother responding to this post, because interpreting it requires context and perspective.

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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Fezza » 04 Mar 2009 22:37

The stats don't seem to account for some really basic issues, like the time of introduction and the relative exersions of the players on the park prior to a players arrival. For example is it really fair to compare using the minutes per goal method when Doyle and Hunt are typically starters against a fit defence and SL comes on when they are tiring? On what percentage of ocassions does SL or LL lose the ball, or get tackled? Does LL have moe shots because he has the awareness to be in the right place at the right time?

Who else is missing from the side when LL has played? What are the relative contributions of the likes of USA and Ivar compared to A Fed and Pearce?

Frankly at this level stats are quite meaningless and unless compared with other environmental based statistics you're never going to get a clear / factually accurate picture.

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Re: Why Lita Doesn't Work

by Snowball » 05 Mar 2009 00:56

cmonurz
Snowball
cmonurz It is a good conversion record, no doubt, but it's harder to score 1 in 3 when from 54 shots, than from 12, if you get my point.


No it isn't.


Yes, it is.


Oh NO it ISN'T!




Take Federici's goalscoring record for Reading. Doesn't he have 1 goal from 1 shot in competitive matches? I'd like to see him keep that up. It's the same principle


No it isn't. I wouldn't expect you to understand, but goalkeepers are very good at goal-scoring. You see, MOST GOALIES ARE BIG BLOKES. You make (yet another) error of deduction here.
If Feds was to go up for all the corners he would score his fair share of goals, BECAUSE HE'S BIG, SEE. Glass for Carlisle scored in a similar way. The Wednesday keeper would have scored
but for a great Fedders save. The "uniqueness of Fedders goal is not because keepers can't score but because they very rarely TRY to score

As I said, Long has a decent record, but come on Prof, don't try to kid me and others that a small sample is as useful as a large sample.
In such a small sample as 12 shots on goal, there are far too many variables to consider it a statistical certainty if extrapolated to a larger sample.



Long's shots have been spread over 26 appearances, 3 starts, 23 sub appearances, so that's a lot of randomness built in, about 20 different teams in opposition, 3PM KO's and night KOs, home and away, top-class and lesser opponents, shots, headers, it's a totally fine sample

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