Shane Long

[Snowball]

"I LOVE Doyle, great player, but in terms of minutes to get a goal, Noel Hunt and Long match him"

Snowball, if only you could read a football match as well as you can read a spreadsheet.

Anyone with 2 eyes and a brain can see that Doyle is 5 (or would you prefer 5.000) times the player that Long is. Long and Lita are impact players while Doyler will give you 90 solid minutes and is miles better than either of the other two at holding the ball and bringing in other players. Are you seriously suggesting that given equal time on the pitch, Long would score as many goals as Doyle?

Read my post a little more carefully. I DO NOT DISPUTE that Doyle is a very very good player
or that currently he is a LOT more valuable than Long.

That wasn't my point. I HAVE said, however, that Doyle-Hunt is by FAR our best partnership

I have said "in terms of minutes per goal" they match him.

I did not talk about

"running in the channel"
"assists"
"tackling back"
"creating space for others"
"being more heavily marked and thus taking weight of others"
"vision"
"leadership"
"presence"

I said (and ONLY said) "in terms of minutes per goal" they match him.

[Snowball]

None of that actually shows that he's improved though, it just shows he's got more games and scored more goals per shots.

2007-08 07 (22) 03 goals from 14 shots, 3 assists
2008-09 03 (22) 04 goals from 12 shots, 1 assists, 2 penalties won


So let me see, last season he started four more games (equal subs) and he scored less
but of course he's not improved. Cue, "Ah, but that was the Prem..."

[roberto_11]

So you basically agree that its a pointless statistic, thats got about as much use as saying Shane Long has played as a sub 23 times this year. What the hell is anyone going to do with that?

[Fezza]

For those that are interested (not using Snowballs made up stats as I got bored and looked through the reports for the season):

I have not included extra time or injury time in this....

Lita = 2195 minutes on the pitch for 8 goals; 274 (rounding down) minutes per goal
Doyle = 3060 minutes on pitch (34 games) for 18 goals; 170 minutes per goal
N Hunt = 2067 minutes for 12 goals; 172 minutes per goal
S Long = 981 minutes for 4 goals; 245 minutes per goal

From these stats that have taken me the best part of an hour to devise I conclude four things;

1) as most nobbers beleive our best forward partnership is Doyle and N Hunt
2) these stats make out that Long is a marginally better player than Lita
3) SC makes his substitutions usually after the 70 minute mark
4) statistics are utterly meaningless and I have wasted an hour of my life

[Fezza]

I said (and ONLY said) "in terms of minutes per goal" they match him.

Utter bollocks see above. N Hunt matches him yes but Long is way off the pace.

[Man Friday]

I said (and ONLY said) "in terms of minutes per goal" they match him.

Utter bollocks see above. N Hunt matches him yes but Long is way off the pace.

Not if he scores more goals he's not because that is what he's paid to do.

[Fezza]

I said (and ONLY said) "in terms of minutes per goal" they match him.

Utter bollocks see above. N Hunt matches him yes but Long is way off the pace.

Not if he scores more goals he's not because that is what he's paid to do.

Sorry I'm not certain of your point? Long scores a goal every 245 minutes, Doyle every 170 minutes, surely you can see from these very accurate (and utterly pointless) statistics that Long does not match Doyle.

Obviously this is subject to change and in no way takes into account the players relative worth to the team.

[Snowball]

Long may have a good goals to minutes played ratio or whatever, but that could be because he is only brought on when we are chasing games, so we are playing in a more attacking fashion, or that he only comes on at the end of games where defenders legs are tired and he has some pace etc etc. Doesnt mean hes a good player. Thats a subjective opinion on how well he fits into how the manager wants his team to play

Or it could be, equally, that he's brought on when we are winning 1-0 or 2-0 and he's told to chase and harry so we can see out the game...

Looking at the various games there's little or no pattern.

Here's a stat for you, the difference between games where Long started or came on as a sub versus games where he didn't play.


26 games W17 D5 L4 57-22 56 points = 2.15 points per game LONG played
08 games W01 D3 L4 03-08 06 points = 0.75 points per game LONG not on pitch



0-2 (A) Swansea
0-2 (H) Bristol
0-1 (H) Forest
0-1 (A) Burnley
0-0 (A) Forest
0-0 (A) QPR
2-2 (A) Cardiff
1-0 (A) Barnsley

[Snowball]

So you basically agree that its a pointless statistic, thats got about as much use as saying Shane Long has played as a sub 23 times this year. What the hell is anyone going to do with that?

In English, please

[Snowball]

For those that are interested (not using Snowballs made up stats as I got bored and looked through the reports for the season):

I have not included extra time or injury time in this....


S Long = 981 minutes for 4 goals; 245 minutes per goal

My stats are taken straight off the club web-site. The only thing they don't include are overtime minutes

This is Long this season in the league

17 PLYMOUTH
14 Charlton
68 PALACE
60 Ipswich
28 WEDNESDAY
36 Watford
24 SWANSEA
06 Wolves
65 BURNLEY
21 Preston
17 DONCASTER
09 QPR
17 Bristol City
22 DERBY
15 Sheff Utd
29 SAINTS
18 COVENTRY
10 Blackpool
10 NORWICH
63 Birmingham
27 CARDIFF
90 Saints
14 WATFORD
10 WOLVES
14 PRESTON
13 Wednesday

717 Minutes, 4 goals = 179 minutes (2 games) per goal

[Snowball]

For those that are interested (not using Snowballs made up stats as I got bored and looked through the reports for the season):

I have not included extra time or injury time in this....

Lita = 2195 minutes on the pitch for 8 goals; 274 (rounding down) minutes per goal
Doyle = 3060 minutes on pitch (34 games) for 18 goals; 170 minutes per goal
N Hunt = 2067 minutes for 12 goals; 172 minutes per goal
S Long = 981 minutes for 4 goals; 245 minutes per goal

Your figures are junk. This is transcribed from the club's website

00 KD NH SL LL
01 90 00 00 90 Forest D 0-0
02 73 02 17 88 PLYMOUTH W 2-0
03 76 18 14 84 Charlton L 2-4
04 90 22 68 00 PALACE W 4-2
05 90 30 60 00 Ipswich L 0-2
06 62 78 28 00 WEDNESDAY W 6-0
07 90 54 36 00 Ipswich D 2-2
08 90 76 24 00 SWANSEA W 4-0
09 90 84 06 00 Wolves W 3-0
10 90 25 65 00 BURNLEY W 3-1
11 69 90 21 00 Preston L 1-2
12 90 83 17 00 DONCASTER W 2-1
13 90 90 09 00 QPR D 0-0
14 90 90 00 00 Burnley L 0-1
15 73 68 17 00 Bristol City W 4-1
16 90 68 22 00 DERBY W 3-0
17 90 75 15 00 Sheff Utd W 2-0
18 90 61 29 00 SAINTS L 1-2
19 90 35 00 00 Cardiff D 2-2
20 90 72 18 00 COVENTRY W 3-1
21 90 56 00 00 Barnsley W 1-0
22 90 80 10 00 Blackpool W 1-0
23 90 80 10 00 NORWICH W 2-0
24 90 27 63 00 Birmingham W 3-1
25 90 63 27 00 CARDIFF D 1-1
26 90 11 90 00 Saints D 1-1
27 76 76 14 14 WATFORD W 4-0
28 90 62 00 08 Swansea L 0-2
29 82 80 10 08 WOLVES W 1-0
30 90 00 00 90 QPR D 0-0
31 76 19 14 90 PRESTON D 0-0
32 90 09 00 90 BRISTOL L 0-2
33 90 90 00 13 FOREST L 0-1
34 90 77 13 00 Wednesday W 2-1


2927 Doyle
1851 Hunt
0717 Long
0575 Lita

[SteveRoyal]

Moving away from the spastistics, does anyone know where Long's goal can be found?
I'm searching...

[Snowball]

Sorry I'm not certain of your point? Long scores a goal every 245 minutes, Doyle every 170 minutes, surely you can see from these very accurate (and utterly pointless) statistics that Long does not match Doyle.

Obviously this is subject to change and in no way takes into account the players relative worth to the team.

Those figures are WRONG.




Long is 4 LEAGUE goals in 717 LEAGUE minutes = 1 goal in 179 minutes

Lita has scored 1 league goal for Reading in the whole season (575 minutes) I couldn't give a monkey's what he has done elsewhere



Maybe they take the cup into account.

I NEVER DO. I am interested solely in the league, and solely in goals FOR READING

[roberto_11]

Long may have a good goals to minutes played ratio or whatever, but that could be because he is only brought on when we are chasing games, so we are playing in a more attacking fashion, or that he only comes on at the end of games where defenders legs are tired and he has some pace etc etc. Doesnt mean hes a good player. Thats a subjective opinion on how well he fits into how the manager wants his team to play

Or it could be, equally, that he's brought on when we are winning 1-0 or 2-0 and he's told to chase and harry so we can see out the game...

Looking at the various games there's little or no pattern.

Here's a stat for you, the difference between games where Long started or came on as a sub versus games where he didn't play.


26 games W17 D5 L4 57-22 56 points = 2.15 points per game LONG played
08 games W01 D3 L4 03-08 06 points = 0.75 points per game LONG not on pitch



0-2 (A) Swansea
0-2 (H) Bristol
0-1 (H) Forest
0-1 (A) Burnley
0-0 (A) Forest
0-0 (A) QPR
2-2 (A) Cardiff
1-0 (A) Barnsley

That is utterly pointless. Football is a subjective game and not as black and white as your stats make out. Firstly unless you are comparing him to any of our other strikers, who cares? Secondly, as previously mentioned, how many of those games has Long been used as an impact player with fresher legs than our other strikers, and opposition defenders, giving him more chance of scoring? Which opposition has Long scored goals against, in form or out of form teams? Who else has been playing who may have contributed to the goals? etc etc

[Fezza]

Sorry I'm not certain of your point? Long scores a goal every 245 minutes, Doyle every 170 minutes, surely you can see from these very accurate (and utterly pointless) statistics that Long does not match Doyle.

Obviously this is subject to change and in no way takes into account the players relative worth to the team.

Those figures are WRONG.




Long is 4 LEAGUE goals in 717 LEAGUE minutes = 1 goal in 179 minutes

Lita has scored 1 league goal for Reading in the whole season (575 minutes) I couldn't give a monkey's what he has done elsewhere



Maybe they take the cup into account.

I NEVER DO. I am interested solely in the league, and solely in goals FOR READING

Sorry chap I did take into accout what Lita has done elsewhere as it seems only fair (they are all playing in the same league and we are looking for an accurate comparison) I also took into account the cup as that seemed fair for N Hunt (2 goals) and for Long as a comparison of playing time.

Having checked my stats I did make an error on the Palace game (you may want to check what you have for Long against Donny though);

NH 2021 minutes on the pitch for 12 goals @ 168 mins per goal (better than Doyle)
SL 1027 minutes on pitch for 4 goals @ 257 mins per goal

I appreciate your interest in the league, but, Long has plainly failed when given the chance to impress against lower division opposition in the cup (as has Lita), whilst N Hunt has done OK, therefore for an accurate comparison between Long and N Hunt this should be taken into account.

What I can't understand is your unwillingness to include Lita's games for Norwich, as these were at the same level and also back up your theory that Long is a better player (though Lita is still Norwich's top scorer).

[cmonurz]

Snowball - you actually proved my point in your response to my post. I simply stated that the throwaway line 'Long has 4 goals in 3 starts' is completely meaningless, and you then tried to prove it had a point by adding in Long's minutes as a substitute, to produce an equivalent number of whole matches.

So my point stands. 'Long has 4 goals in 3 starts' means absolutely f*ck all.

And your ability to insult me every time you respond to me makes you look like a child.

[Snowball]

The fact I think you are thick is not an insult. I simply think you are thick

and you keep producing evidence to reinforce my belief.

[cmonurz]

The fact I think you are thick is not an insult. I simply think you are thick

and you keep producing evidence to reinforce my belief.

Failing to address my point, for a second time, suggests you are having problems winning an argument with a thick person.

Someone is not thick because they disagree with you, mate.

[Ian Royal]

Out of interest how many times has Long scored when he's started this season?

Actually I looked myself so I could trust my figures.
08/09
7 starts 1 goals.
23 sub appearances 3 goals
07/08
10 starts 1 goal
22 sub appearances 2 goals
06/07
12 starts 4 goals
12 sub appearances 0 goals
05/06
5 starts 1 goal
10 sub appearances 3 goals

Clearly Long started with a lot of promise but has faded or at best gone nowhere. A record of 6 goals in 39 starts is pretty poor (1 in 6.5). 5 of which came two seasons and 17 games ago. Clearly Long should never start.

Goals per minutes is pretty meaningless as a stat goes I'm afraid. Particularly in comparing quality of players. Stats are useful to inform a decision, but football has far too many variables to actually base your opinion on them. You need to base it on performances, which, though it may upset some people, are subjective.

[Snowball]

Sorry chap I did take into accout what Lita has done elsewhere as it seems only fair (they are all playing in the same league and we are looking for an accurate comparison) I also took into account the cup as that seemed fair for N Hunt (2 goals) and for Long as a comparison of playing time.

No it ISN'T fair, nor is it strictly comparable. Some players can score at one club but not at another. I truly don't care what he does elsewhere. I DO care what he does FOR READING and he has had six starts ALL GOALLESS this season. More importantly, in all those six starts, the other strikers haven't scored either. He doesn't gel with the other strikers, ploughs his own furrow. I have a feeling he's not popular and may cause unrest in the dressing-room

I do not include cup games because they are far too variable. The teams do not bear any relation to the first team in the league AND Coppell has made it clear he doesn't much care about the cups. By remaining consistent and completely ignoring all cup matches and sticking with league games, I am being totally fair. I mean, why not include reserve games, too?

I appreciate your interest in the league, but, Long has plainly failed when given the chance to impress against lower division opposition in the cup (as has Lita), whilst N Hunt has done OK, therefore for an accurate comparison between Long and N Hunt this should be taken into account.

No. I am only interested in the league. End of.

What I can't understand is your unwillingness to include Lita's games for Norwich, as these were at the same level and also back up your theory that Long is a better player (though Lita is still Norwich's top scorer).

Sometimes, when a new manager comes in, players perk up and get 2-3 good results then fall back.
Lita went away to Norwich, said he liked it there, played in a different team with a different system
and had one particularly good game. He had God knows how many chances, but it was well over 50.
The Norwich site shows he had 49 shots in his 16 games there. Compare that to Kevin Doyle who is
second top scorer in the league with his 18 league goals, yet has only had 63 shots in 34 games.
Doesn't that suggest that the system there was giving him an awful lot of chances? His conversion rate
was quite poor. He needed 7 shots (more than seven chances therefore) per goal. Without going through
every one of the 16 games he played there to find out if he played the full 90 each time... (1430 minutes)
He played 16 games, got 7 goals, 3 in a single game, so 4 in his other 15 games

Anyway, his overall average is 1430+575 minutes for 8 goals = 251 minutes a goal, just short of 3 games req'd for a goal

BTW, I am NOT saying "Long is a better player than Lita"

I am saying "Long gets more goals per game than Lita, Long gels better with the other Reading strikers, than Lita, Long is not selfish like Lita Long gets on well in the dressing room, Long has scored many crucial goals.

Even if you include Lita's best season 4 season's ago!

LITA ----------------LONG
22 (04) 11 goals ---- 01 (10) 03 goals
22 (11) 07 goals ---- 09 (12) 02 goals
10 (04) 01 goals ---- 07 (22) 03 goals
06 (04) 01 goals ---- 03 (23) 04 goals

60 (23) 19 goals ---- 20 (67) 12 goals

If you call a sub appearance .2 of a game (18 minutes)...

64.6 games 19 goals = 1 goal every 3.40 games LITA
33.4 games 12 goals = 1 goal every 2.78 games LONG

And let's not forget Long was a very young raw kid when he started here, Lita had had a couple of years in League 1 (and he's 2+ years older