This is just ridiculous.

[1960]

On the other hand, being in the play-offs will prolong the misery even longer. Let's assume Wolves are up (not definite, I know) then we would be facing Sheff Utd/Brum (whichever one doesn't make auto), Cardiff and Burnley if the top 6 don't change. Can we beat any of those in the semis on our present form?

[Northern Git]

snowball the fact is we are still forth in the league so over the season the 4th best team so far
its also a fact that recently we have been shite and, despite marek's best ateempt a couple of weeks ago, couldn't score in a whorehouse at the moment
its about time you took your head out the sand! if we continue in our current for we will not make the play offs, fact!

I love the idiocy of this board.. people who can't count.

We are fourth with a game in hand on the team in second.

We are seven points and a massive GD better than Preston in seventh. Preston have to gain EIGHT points on us in 5 games

We are averaging 1.85 points a game away (three games = 5/6 points)... We have two home games.

So if we get just six points (two wins) from 3 away games and two home games Preston will have to win all their last 5 games


Preston's games (they do not have a chance of overtaking us)


H Blackpool
A Doncaster
H CARDIFF
A BIRMINGHAM
H QPR

Here we go again.

Few weeks back we had posts ad nauseam quoting average figures after average figures about how they ‘proved’ we would overhaul Wolves to take top spot. Didn’t happen.

We then moved on to more figures about how we were nailed on to take second spot. Didn’t happen.

We now get the same drivel about the play offs. We average this, we average that. Shame the opposition don’t think ‘oh Readings’ average is 1.85 we are going loose today’

If team don’t perform, we won’t get the points and we won’t be in the play offs.

And just a final thing that I thought our numbers guru would have noticed.

Our last five games have been the same three away, two at home as the final five games will be. One of our promotion contenders has gained TEN points on us during that period.

[working class hero]

That form continues we miss the playoffs

Been saying for weeks our current form is relegation form

No. I think we WILL make the playoffs - if only because Preston seem determined to mess it up...

[Southbank Old Boy]

Here we go again.

Few weeks back we had posts ad nauseam quoting average figures after average figures about how they ‘proved’ we would overhaul Wolves to take top spot. Didn’t happen.

We then moved on to more figures about how we were nailed on to take second spot. Didn’t happen.

We now get the same drivel about the play offs. We average this, we average that. Shame the opposition don’t think ‘oh Readings’ average is 1.85 we are going loose today’

If team don’t perform, we won’t get the points and we won’t be in the play offs.

And just a final thing that I thought our numbers guru would have noticed.

Our last five games have been the same three away, two at home as the final five games will be. One of our promotion contenders has gained TEN points on us during that period.

Despite agreeing on the drivel side of things Northern I think Snowball is probably right that Preston won't catch us

They have to get 7 points just to be level with us. I cant see them getting 7 points out of those remaining fixtures, especially now they lost to Blackpool

Swansea next best though and they are now 7 points behind but with only 4 games left (Barnsley, Bristol City, Sheff U and Blackpool). I can see them getting 9 points from them, so we probably only need 3 points to stay in the playoffs

[Snowball]

I love the idiocy of this board.. people who can't count.
We are fourth with a game in hand on the team in second.
We are seven points and a massive GD better than Preston in seventh. Preston have to gain EIGHT points on us in 5 games
We are averaging 1.85 points a game away (three games = 5/6 points)... We have two home games.
So if we get just six points (two wins) from 3 away games and two home games Preston will have to win all their last 5 games


Preston's games (they do not have a chance of overtaking us)

H Blackpool LOST
A Doncaster
H CARDIFF
A BIRMINGHAM
H QPR

Here we go again.

Few weeks back we had posts ad nauseam quoting average figures after average figures about how they ‘proved’ we would overhaul Wolves to take top spot. Didn’t happen.
We then moved on to more figures about how we were nailed on to take second spot. Didn’t happen.
We now get the same drivel about the play offs. We average this, we average that. Shame the opposition don’t think ‘oh Readings’ average is 1.85 we are going loose today’
If team don’t perform, we won’t get the points and we won’t be in the play offs.
And just a final thing that I thought our numbers guru would have noticed.
Our last five games have been the same three away, two at home as the final five games will be. One of our promotion contenders has gained TEN points on us during that period.

So, do you have some reason to suggest we will do LESS well than in this five games? WDDLL 1-2 = 5 points?

That would leave us on 74 points with a GD of 28

Nearest rivals are Swansea on 62 points from 42 games.

If they win 4 games all 3-0 they will be on 74 points with a GD of 23, BELOW US

For us to finish seventh would require a total collapse, zero points from 5 games, AND Swansea to get two points a game.

Care to put £100 quid on Reading to NOT make the play-offs? I'll give you 10-1

[Northern Git]

No I do not have any reason to say we will do worse (or better) over the next five game. We could get 0 points or we could get 15 or anywhere in between. I dont know, you dont know, no one knows. But statistic do not 'prove' if we will or wont either.

No I would not have a bet with you as betting is for twats - which is probably why you want to have a bet.

I actually did not say that we would not make the play offs - only that, once again, we get the 'average this, average that' crap, which means completly oxf*rd all unless you are looking at the table after 46 actual football matches.

[Arch]

There are still three teams worse than us.

[Rev Algenon Stickleback H]

There are still three teams worse than us.

Charlton, Southampton and Norwich?

[Rev Algenon Stickleback H]

No I do not have any reason to say we will do worse (or better) over the next five game. We could get 0 points or we could get 15 or anywhere in between. I dont know, you dont know, no one knows. But statistic do not 'prove' if we will or wont either.
.

Extrapolating average points to predict future outcomes is stupid, but it is fair to suggest that unless we pick up no more than one or two points from out last 5 gmaes, it would be incredibly unlikely that Preston or Swansea would overtake us. That stats don't prove we will or won't, but they can prove that certain events are highly unlikely.

[Snowball]

Of COURSE averages mean something especially recent form

To refute form you have to have justification. You seem to be arguing that results are totally random. If that is the case why not say it's just as likely Wolves will lose all the rest of their games 3-0 and end up third?


Away from home, last thirteen games we have W6 D6 L1.

Now using a brain (borrow one, if necessary) EXPLAIN why Reading should not be expected to approximate the same sort of form in their next three away games.

Stats are never PROOF, nor have I ever said they were. When you decide to cross a road and look left-right you decide to cross based on science (speed of traffic) AND statistics. It's POSSIBLE that a car will arrive doing 250 miles an hour but statistically unlikely.

Even after all this bad run we still have the second best defence in the league. Why after 41 games should that defence just fall apart? Five 0-0 draws would put us on 74, no problem making the play-offs

On the one hand people on this list bitch that statistics mean nothing but at
the same time they say it's "ridiculous" for me to say we will win at Blackpool.

Now the only LOGICAL reason for saying we won't win at Blackpool is STATISTICAL (not scoring, poor players etc)

[Northern Git]

Of COURSE averages mean something especially recent form

To refute form you have to have justification. You seem to be arguing that results are totally random. If that is the case why not say it's just as likely Wolves will lose all the rest of their games 3-0 and end up third?


Away from home, last thirteen games we have W6 D6 L1.

Now using a brain (borrow one, if necessary) EXPLAIN why Reading should not be expected to approximate the same sort of form in their next three away games.

Stats are never PROOF, nor have I ever said they were. When you decide to cross a road and look left-right you decide to cross based on science (speed of traffic) AND statistics. It's POSSIBLE that a car will arrive doing 250 miles an hour but statistically unlikely.

Even after all this bad run we still have the second best defence in the league. Why after 41 games should that defence just fall apart? Five 0-0 draws would put us on 74, no problem making the play-offs

On the one hand people on this list bitch that statistics mean nothing but at
the same time they say it's "ridiculous" for me to say we will win at Blackpool.

Now the only LOGICAL reason for saying we won't win at Blackpool is STATISTICAL (not scoring, poor players etc)

Again, I have not suggested that Reading will not make the playoffs, or have I said they wont win a Blackpool. I dont know either way - because it is a football match and, as most of us realise, anything can happen and sometimes does. Much as you would like it to be football is not logical.

As for why Reading will (or wont) replicated their recent away form over the final three games - I dont know. And statistics, averages or whatever you keep spouting on about dont prove it one way or another either.

Remember you telling us all, back at the turn of the year, that Readings home form statistically meant we were nailed on for promotion. A pre new year record of P13 W10 D2 L1 For 32 Against 8 Points 32 was transformed in a matter of weeks to a record of P8 W2 D2 L4 For 7 Against 7 Points 8. Did your statistics predict that? NO because in football statistics only mean anything after the game(s) have been played.