Strange how it all works out.

londinium · by **londinium** » 28 Apr 2009 13:48

I dont think I can remember a time that a team has to at least get a point to be promoted on the final day.

Normally it occurs that if two or 3 teams go into the final day with a chance of promotion if all lose then one of them still goes up. But in this case.

Reading have to win or they can't go up
Shef Utd have to win or they can't go up, and
Brum need at least a point or they cant go up and even then they may still need all 3 points.

I so hope it is the 80 points each senario.

Thaumagurist* · by Thaumagurist* » 28 Apr 2009 13:50

I've sort of worked out all the possible permutations for the final day:

Birmingham win, Sheffield Utd win = Birmingham promoted
Reading win, Sheffield utd win = Sheffield utd promoted
Birmingham Reading draw, Sheffield utd win = Sheffield utd promoted
Birmingham Reading draw, Sheffield utd draw = Birmingham promoted
Birmingham Reading draw, Sheffield utd lose = Birmingham promoted
Birmingham win, Sheffield utd draw = Birmingham promoted
Reading win, Sheffield utd draw = Reading promoted
Birmingham win, Sheffield lose = Birmingham promoted
Reading win, Sheffield lose = Reading promoted

So to summarise all of that, we have 2 in 9 chance of going up.

Dirk Gently · by **Dirk Gently** » 28 Apr 2009 13:51

As far as Brum are concerned they need 3 points. Only an team of absolute idiots would play for a draw in this situation.

So it's effectively all 3 teams must win.

londinium · by **londinium** » 28 Apr 2009 13:55

Dirk Gently As far as Brum are concerned they need 3 points. Only an team of absolute idiots would play for a draw in this situation.

So it's effectively all 3 teams must win.

Greed

Vision · by **Vision** » 28 Apr 2009 14:35

Dirk Gently As far as Brum are concerned they need 3 points. Only an team of absolute idiots would play for a draw in this situation.

Has Lee bowyer's ban been overturned?

Paul Cowin · by **Paul Cowin** » 28 Apr 2009 14:52

At least we are on some kind of run...at last

I am a bit surprised that we are the least favourites to go up at the bookies

Worth a punt at 4-1

brendywendy · by **brendywendy** » 28 Apr 2009 15:00

was 10-1 before last night

tink · by **tink** » 28 Apr 2009 15:07

Vision Has Lee bowyer's ban been overturned?

I can't honestly see how they would get away with that. Bowyer was having a right old scrap on the floor with him, then got up, bit more argy bargy and then tried to headbut him. I can't imagine the FA will overturn it.

But the question is, if Bowyer is suspended, Lee Carsley will come in to replace him, which isn't much of an improvement from the point of view of the safety of our players' ankles

Thaumagurist* · by Thaumagurist* » 28 Apr 2009 15:12

tink Bowyer was having a right old scrap on the floor with him, then got up, bit more argy bargy and then tried to headbut him.

I was agreeing with you right until the last bit. The Preston player tried to headbutt Bowyer, which is why he got sent off.

Arch · by **Arch** » 28 Apr 2009 15:27

Paul Cowin I am a bit surprised that we are the least favourites to go up at the bookies

We play the team in second and have to win, while for them a draw may be enough, so that makes them more favoured. Then the Blades play weaker opposition, so they're slightly favoured. The bookies aren't fools. I think 50/50 chance for Birmingham and 25% chance for each of us and the Blades is roughly right.

tink · by **tink** » 28 Apr 2009 15:31

Thaumagurist*
tink Bowyer was having a right old scrap on the floor with him, then got up, bit more argy bargy and then tried to headbut him.

I was agreeing with you right until the last bit. The Preston player tried to headbutt Bowyer, which is why he got sent off.

I stand corrected

MartinRdg · by **MartinRdg** » 28 Apr 2009 15:43

Vision
Dirk Gently As far as Brum are concerned they need 3 points. Only an team of absolute idiots would play for a draw in this situation.

Has Lee bowyer's ban been overturned?

No news on BBC web site as of yet. It is supposed to be concluded today.

facaldaqui · by **facaldaqui** » 28 Apr 2009 15:57

I think we have more than a 2 in 9 chance when the fact we are the only one of the three at home is taken into account. OK, our recent record at home isn't good, but we beat Brum 3 0 away, and that was actually when our decline had already started.

I feel we can beat Birmingham, who have been almost as pants as us since Christmas (otherwise, how are they only three points ahead of us?). My main unease is that I can't see Palace taking a point off Sheffield. Last year I was confident Portsmouth would get something against Fulham, and I refuse to get my hopes up on a disinterested side doing us a favour this time. A win against Birmingham, even if Sheffield win, would still be good, though: it would send us into the playoffs on the best run of the four, and we wouldn't fear Birmingham if we got them in the final.

RobRoyal · by **RobRoyal** » 28 Apr 2009 16:07

Thaumagurist* I've sort of worked out all the possible permutations for the final day:

Birmingham win, Sheffield Utd win = Birmingham promoted
Reading win, Sheffield utd win = Sheffield utd promoted
Birmingham Reading draw, Sheffield utd win = Sheffield utd promoted
Birmingham Reading draw, Sheffield utd draw = Birmingham promoted
Birmingham Reading draw, Sheffield utd lose = Birmingham promoted
Birmingham win, Sheffield utd draw = Birmingham promoted
Reading win, Sheffield utd draw = Reading promoted
Birmingham win, Sheffield lose = Birmingham promoted
Reading win, Sheffield lose = Reading promoted

So to summarise all of that, we have 2 in 9 chance of going up.

Spacey needs to go to probability school.

What do you mean, "doesn't exist"?

tink · by **tink** » 28 Apr 2009 16:07

The morsel of hope that i am clinging to is the tension that the sheff utd supporters will bring to the palace game. If we were in their situation, away from home, needing to win, hoping that the team above us lost, then we would all be bricking it. I think everyone at sheff u will be incredibly nervous and edgy and if they don't score early i think it could start to really make a difference.

I am hoping that we can play with a bit less pressure, because it's out of our hands. Well, at least until sheff utd fall behind, the news filters through, the players hear the crowd, everyone gets edgy and then we concede....

Oh oxf*rd, i don't know how it's gonna work out!

SpaghettiHoop · by **SpaghettiHoop** » 28 Apr 2009 16:35

I've worked out the probability of automatic promotion on Sunday using this morning's odds on Betfair.

Reading win & C Palace win 7.4%
Reading win & C Palace draw 10.3%
Reading win & C Palace lose 23.4%

Reading draw & C Palace win 5.0%
Reading draw & C Palace draw 7.0%
Reading draw & C Palace lose 16.0%

Reading lose & C Palace win 5.6%
Reading lose & C Palace draw 7.8%
Reading lose & C Palace lose 17.7%

100.0%

SECOND PLACE % Odds

Reading 17.6% 4.67-1
Sheff Utd 39.3% 1.54-1
Birm 43.0% 1.32-1

100.0%

MartinRdg · by **MartinRdg** » 28 Apr 2009 17:13

MartinRdg
Vision
Dirk Gently As far as Brum are concerned they need 3 points. Only an team of absolute idiots would play for a draw in this situation.

Has Lee bowyer's ban been overturned?

No news on BBC web site as of yet. It is supposed to be concluded today.

Birmingham have lost appeal - http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/b/birmingham_city/8020979.stm

Edited - Doh!!

Bill Oddie's Beard · by **Bill Oddie's Beard** » 28 Apr 2009 17:15

MartinRdg Sheff Utd have lost appeal - http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/b/birmingham_city/8020979.stm

Try again

Thaumagurist* · by Thaumagurist* » 28 Apr 2009 17:15

MartinRdg
MartinRdg
Vision Has Lee bowyer's ban been overturned?

No news on BBC web site as of yet. It is supposed to be concluded today.

Sheff Utd have lost appeal - http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/b/birmingham_city/8020979.stm

Why would Sheffield United be appealing against the ban of some other club's player?

Horsham Royal · by **Horsham Royal** » 28 Apr 2009 17:18

Thaumagurist* Why would Sheffield United be appealing against the ban of some other club's player?

Because he's rubbish

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