How many points will it take?

[cmonurz]

There's an appearance of paradox that I think is bedeviling both sides of the argument.

TRUE: to get automatic promotion, you only need 1 point more than the team that ultimately comes third (how anyone can deny this defeats me)

but

TRUE: for any given season, taking points tally of the team that came third (say 81) and saying "one point more than this tally (e.g. 82)would have been enough" is not correct. Snowball's reasoning fits this conclusion fine.

What everyone misses is that these two propositions are not contradictory.

I see your point, but the crux of Snowball's argument remains this one fixture between Reading and Birmingham. What about the effect of the game at St. Andrews on our points tallys? Or if we do fail to win tomorrow, is it tomorrow's game that stops us going up? I'd argue it is as much to do with us failing to take many points from Soton, Forest and Charlton, as it is anything else, which is why my argument will always come back to 3rd, plus one point.

[CMRoyal]

There's an appearance of paradox that I think is bedeviling both sides of the argument.

TRUE: to get automatic promotion, you only need 1 point more than the team that ultimately comes third (how anyone can deny this defeats me)

but

TRUE: for any given season, taking points tally of the team that came third (say 81) and saying "one point more than this tally (e.g. 82)would have been enough" is not correct. Snowball's reasoning fits this conclusion fine.

What everyone misses is that these two propositions are not contradictory.

Not missing that point, just pointing out that the "+1" proposition is a purely theoretical way of determining a likely range of required points for second place. There's no real point in trying to fit the current situation into that, or of trying to back-fill 'might have beens'.

[Snowball]

There's an appearance of paradox that I think is bedeviling both sides of the argument.

TRUE: to get automatic promotion, you only need 1 point more than the team that ultimately comes third (how anyone can deny this defeats me)

but

TRUE: for any given season, taking points tally of the team that came third (say 81) and saying "one point more than this tally (e.g. 82)would have been enough" is not correct. Snowball's reasoning fits this conclusion fine.

What everyone misses is that these two propositions are not contradictory.

I see your point, but the crux of Snowball's argument remains this one fixture between Reading and Birmingham. What about the effect of the game at St. Andrews on our points tallys? Or if we do fail to win tomorrow, is it tomorrow's game that stops us going up? I'd argue it is as much to do with us failing to take many points from Soton, Forest and Charlton, as it is anything else, which is why my argument will always come back to 3rd, plus one point.

cmonurz, you are arguing MY point!

If we go up tomorrow, we go up for a few reasons, but a few particular ones.

If we go up we will have scored 80 points, but crucially, we have prevented Birmingham getting 86!

The win at their place is the only thing, right now that gives us this half-a-chance.

A draw there and with this game to go, it's all over for us

81 Birmingham
75 Reading

A Birmingham win there?

83 Birmingham
74 Reading

Ditto the game at Sheffield,

A draw there?

80 Sheffield
75 Reading

A Sheffield win there?

82 Sheffield
74 Reading

And had we drawn at home to Sheffield

78 Reading
78 Sheffield

And had we won 1-0

80 Reading
77 Sheffield

So of course points won always matters, but it's "points taken off your rivals" that is probably more important

In the last seven seasons it has never BEEN a single point difference, the average has been 5.57 points

Only twice in the last seven years has it been as low as two points

03 points 2001-2
12 Points 2002-3
07 Points 2003-4
02 Points 2004-5
09 Points 2005-6
02 Points 2006-7
04 Points 2007-8

5.57 average


You'd think, if it really "only required 1 point" (or, in fact, goal difference) that it would happen more often.

[Snowball]

[

Yes, my mistake. I was thinking, "Reading beat Birmingham" but United have to win...

[Snowball]

So that's eight consecutive seasons when the side in second
has been more than a single point clear of third, and the average gap is 5.5 points

[Rawlie19]

There's an appearance of paradox that I think is bedeviling both sides of the argument.

TRUE: to get automatic promotion, you only need 1 point more than the team that ultimately comes third (how anyone can deny this defeats me)

but

TRUE: for any given season, taking points tally of the team that came third (say 81) and saying "one point more than this tally (e.g. 82)would have been enough" is not correct. Snowball's reasoning fits this conclusion fine.

What everyone misses is that these two propositions are not contradictory.

I see your point, but the crux of Snowball's argument remains this one fixture between Reading and Birmingham. What about the effect of the game at St. Andrews on our points tallys? Or if we do fail to win tomorrow, is it tomorrow's game that stops us going up? I'd argue it is as much to do with us failing to take many points from Soton, Forest and Charlton, as it is anything else, which is why my argument will always come back to 3rd, plus one point.

cmonurz, you are arguing MY point!

If we go up tomorrow, we go up for a few reasons, but a few particular ones.

If we go up we will have scored 80 points, but crucially, we have prevented Birmingham getting 86!

The win at their place is the only thing, right now that gives us this half-a-chance.

A draw there and with this game to go, it's all over for us

81 Birmingham
75 Reading

A Birmingham win there?

83 Birmingham
74 Reading

Ditto the game at Sheffield,

A draw there?

80 Sheffield
75 Reading

A Sheffield win there?

82 Sheffield
74 Reading

And had we drawn at home to Sheffield

78 Reading
78 Sheffield

And had we won 1-0

80 Reading
77 Sheffield

So of course points won always matters, but it's "points taken off your rivals" that is probably more important

In the last seven seasons it has never BEEN a single point difference, the average has been 5.57 points

Only twice in the last seven years has it been as low as two points

03 points 2001-2
12 Points 2002-3
07 Points 2003-4
02 Points 2004-5
09 Points 2005-6
02 Points 2006-7
04 Points 2007-8

5.57 average


You'd think, if it really "only required 1 point" (or, in fact, goal difference) that it would happen more often.

FFS! Enough already! All you have 'proved' in this thread is that you are a boring twat quite capable of putting me into a coma!

[weybridgewanderer]

f we go up tomorrow, we go up for a few reasons, but a few particular ones.

If we go up we will have scored 80 points, but crucially, we have prevented Birmingham getting 86!

The win at their place is the only thing, right now that gives us this half-a-chance.

so we ended up in a position where we took 3 points off each other

brum did not go up because they took 3 points off us at the mad stad

It was brums results compared with our results against everyone else that ultimately decided who got promoted

Which is why results against each other, although important, are only part of the story and the aim is not to beat 1 rival over 2 games but to get at least 1 more point than them over 46 games

[Snowball]

f we go up tomorrow, we go up for a few reasons, but a few particular ones.

If we go up we will have scored 80 points, but crucially, we have prevented Birmingham getting 86!
The win at their place is the only thing, right now that gives us this half-a-chance.

so we ended up in a position where we took 3 points off each other
brum did not go up because they took 3 points off us at the mad stad
It was brums results compared with our results against everyone else that ultimately decided who got promoted
Which is why results against each other, although important, are only part of the story and the aim is not to beat 1 rival over 2 games but to get at least 1 more point than them over 46 games

Please don't be so silly when the facts SCREAM at us.

Had we won 2-1 we'd now be promoted. ABSOLUTE FACT.

(a) Because we'd have accrued 80 points
(b) Because we restricted Birmingham to 80 points by beating them twice
(c) Because our win at Sheffield restricted Sheffield to 80 points

[Dirk Gently]

And if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.

Is this really worth arguing over now?

[weybridgewanderer]

Please don't be so silly when the facts SCREAM at us.

Had we won 2-1 we'd now be promoted. ABSOLUTE FACT.

(a) Because we'd have accrued 80 points
(b) Because we restricted Birmingham to 80 points by beating them twice
(c) Because our win at Sheffield restricted Sheffield to 80 points

our recent home form

W- 0

D - 3

L - 5

3 points from 24

this is the only FACT that stopped us getting automatic promotion

[cmonurz]

f we go up tomorrow, we go up for a few reasons, but a few particular ones.

If we go up we will have scored 80 points, but crucially, we have prevented Birmingham getting 86!
The win at their place is the only thing, right now that gives us this half-a-chance.

so we ended up in a position where we took 3 points off each other
brum did not go up because they took 3 points off us at the mad stad
It was brums results compared with our results against everyone else that ultimately decided who got promoted
Which is why results against each other, although important, are only part of the story and the aim is not to beat 1 rival over 2 games but to get at least 1 more point than them over 46 games

Please don't be so silly when the facts SCREAM at us.

Had we won 2-1 we'd now be promoted. ABSOLUTE FACT.

(a) Because we'd have accrued 80 points
(b) Because we restricted Birmingham to 80 points by beating them twice
(c) Because our win at Sheffield restricted Sheffield to 80 points

So Birmingham failing to score against Blackpool this season in no way contributed to their final points total?

[Arch]

Had we won 2-1 we'd now be promoted. ABSOLUTE FACT.

(a) Because we'd have accrued 80 points
(b) Because we restricted Birmingham to 80 points by beating them twice
(c) Because our win at Sheffield restricted Sheffield to 80 points

But by beating Brum twice, we'd only have restricted them to 132 points. And one our win over the Blades only restricted them to 135 points.

[PEARCEY]

Had we won 2-1 we'd now be promoted. ABSOLUTE FACT.

(a) Because we'd have accrued 80 points
(b) Because we restricted Birmingham to 80 points by beating them twice
(c) Because our win at Sheffield restricted Sheffield to 80 points

But by beating Brum twice, we'd only have restricted them to 132 points. And one our win over the Blades only restricted them to 135 points.

Hmmm.....I'm beginning to regret starting this thread now.