RUMOUR - Tommy Smith

[CMRoyal]

Wrong. He shows different angles / stats of basically the same key information to illustrate their validity in the face of a constant barrage of largely ill-informed criticism and misrepresentation.

You're both wrong. The truth is somewhere in between, and if we all could cool it when responding to each other - and that includes snowball - or learn to ignore anything that winds us up, I'm sure we'd be able to squeeze out what goodness there is in all the pap.

You seem to overlook how every time a stat supports Long, half-a-dozen people will find a NEW
reason why the stat means nothing. Apart from Lita's meaningless 94th minute goal when we
were already winning 3-0 v Watford, how many other players came on as impact sub in the last
10-15 minutes and scored? Did Doyle? Did Kitson? Did Noel Hunt?

How come THOSE players "coming on fresh against tired defences" couldn't score?

Maybe, but your reply also shows what winds people up - you are responding to my point by going off on a tangent, telling me I'm 'overlooking' something which has absolutely nothing to do with my general observation. Add to that the fact that you dismiss inconvenient facts as "meaningless" and you'll see why I believe that no-one's completely innocent in all this. The temptation now is to get into a spat about why Lita's "meaningless" goal doesn't count, but Long's "meaningless" goals do. But I won't.

[Plymouth_Royal]

Agree on the timings there RR, although Snowball's stance was, IIRC, that Long was being harshly critised by the fans and not given enough chances by the management.

The crux of the debate was more about how the stats failed to show who was the more accomplished player, not the one with the best goals per game ratio. Long was showing himself to be more effective than Lita at that time, but that just highlights how we failed to utilise the talents at our disposal to their maximum I guess.

Snowball didn't help his arguement by constantly changing the parameters to suit his standpoint and by failing to accept that the stats were a little shaky and didnt actually take into account the players strengths, weaknesses and abilities.

From reading this thread it seems that Snowballs main tactic is to constantly change the parameters to suit his standpoint an then he comes out with the I am a professional writer and have been for some time therefore you are wrong. Then come the insults calling anyone who does not see things his way stupid or thick.

Snowball you sound like you are a very accomplished writer ( not sure sarcasm comes over correctly on message boards) Who are you Oliver Holt ??


Oh and btw

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I do not think that this thread has been on topic for some time. So please either change the title to the Handbags thread or delete the thread please mods

Im not sitting on the fence when I say this but I do think that both snowball and the more seasoned posters are both right when they're trying to put their point across. Snowballs use of stats is fascinating and is being used more and more in football to justify a point. You see them being used on sky sports score centre, betting companies use similar types of stats to decide their odds and even media sport companies are using them to showcase their stars for work. However, you can collate certain stats to manipulate an argument or to justify your points. I DONT MEAN MANIPULATE THE STATS, THAT WOULD BE SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. And unfortunately stats are limited in their justification for some cases such as shane long's awful control and his poor decision's, which has been apparent on occasions to reading fans who have seen him play. There are also limitations for the stats in these cases as you would have to define ' a good touch' in order to determine how many times hes controlled the ball effectively. You would also have to take into account whether he was trying to control on the turn, lay it off, was he under immense pressure etc. Again, the definition is open to opinion.
The point I'm trying to make is that whether you're a snowball or an Ian Royal, whatever your trying to justify is an opinion with support of stats or from your own eyes. You could argue that if you were there and have seen a player perform badly then your right. But then why is it there can be 25k plus in attendance and not everyone has the same view on an individual or team performance. Surely this clearly shows that being there or producing stats to back up your opinion is no more right than the other.

[Snowball]

By "meaningless" I meant Lita's goal had no bearing whatsoever on the result.

Ditto his only goal in 2007-8, another 90th something fourt goal when we were already 3-0 up.

Long's two contributions as sub this year were VITAL

He scored the winning goal at Sheffield and then cleared off his own line to protect the win.

He won a penalty in the 84th minute at home to Norwich (scored by SHunt) and then scored himself in the 86th.

You can add in the excellent unselfish goal he made for Cisse at Wolves when he could easily
have taken the shot himself.


I don't say meaningless in the sense the goal has no statistical meaning, but it is interesting how few goals our super-subs scored when apparently it's so easy...

[Snowball]

Plymouth, I'm on record as saying Shane's first touch isn't great.

I've also said I worry he won't fit Rodgers' 4-5-1/4-3-3 plans
and will be third behind Henry-Church precisely because he
lacks "silky skills".

He could be FOURTH choice in a 4-5-1/4-3-3 if Tommy Smith signs

But I'm a simple soul. His touch doesn't worry me.

I would play a donkey, if it was legal, if he consistently
scored a goal every 180 minutes (two games)

Players with the ability to turn possession into goals are priceless

[Snowball]

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

I'd dearly like to know which books he's written just so I can make sure I never waste any money on them.

You probably wouldn't understand them. I don't use words like "gash".

[Ian Royal]

Im not sitting on the fence when I say this but I do think that both snowball and the more seasoned posters are both right when they're trying to put their point across. Snowballs use of stats is fascinating and is being used more and more in football to justify a point. You see them being used on sky sports score centre, betting companies use similar types of stats to decide their odds and even media sport companies are using them to showcase their stars for work. However, you can collate certain stats to manipulate an argument or to justify your points. I DONT MEAN MANIPULATE THE STATS, THAT WOULD BE SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. And unfortunately stats are limited in their justification for some cases such as shane long's awful control and his poor decision's, which has been apparent on occasions to reading fans who have seen him play. There are also limitations for the stats in these cases as you would have to define ' a good touch' in order to determine how many times hes controlled the ball effectively. You would also have to take into account whether he was trying to control on the turn, lay it off, was he under immense pressure etc. Again, the definition is open to opinion.
The point I'm trying to make is that whether you're a snowball or an Ian Royal, whatever your trying to justify is an opinion with support of stats or from your own eyes. You could argue that if you were there and have seen a player perform badly then your right. But then why is it there can be 25k plus in attendance and not everyone has the same view on an individual or team performance. Surely this clearly shows that being there or producing stats to back up your opinion is no more right than the other.

Pretty good post there. The nail has been firmly hit on the head.

Unfortunately the fact that I can't stand snowball clouds my judgement a little and sucks me off topic, after what I see as being glaringly obvious flaws in his posts.

[Plymouth_Royal]

Plymouth, I'm on record as saying Shane's first touch isn't great.

I've also said I worry he won't fit Rodgers' 4-5-1/4-3-3 plans
and will be third behind Henry-Church precisely because he
lacks "silky skills".

He could be FOURTH choice in a 4-5-1/4-3-3 if Tommy Smith signs

But I'm a simple soul. His touch doesn't worry me.

I would play a donkey, if it was legal, if he consistently
scored a goal every 180 minutes (two games)

Players with the ability to turn possession into goals are priceless

Fair point. But the example of shane long's touch was just to show the limitations of the stats. Im not trying to have a dig as I've studied stats myself for my maths degree and appreciate the effort that goes into collating the data.

[Hoop Blah]

Snowballs use of stats is fascinating and is being used more and more in football to justify a point.

I don't mean to be picky PR, but none of your list below is 'in football.'

You see them being used on sky sports score centre, betting companies use similar types of stats to decide their odds and even media sport companies are using them to showcase their stars for work.

I agree that some stats are being used within the game though, pro-zone are their competitors are proving that, but their uses are pretty specific and detailed and not quite along the same lines as Snowballs stat attacks.

Thank-you, Royal. The league scoring ability of Shane Long is CATEGORICALLY better than Leroy Lita when playing for Reading.

PERFORMANCE not ABILITY Snowball, there is a big difference which you seem incapable of accepting or at least taking into consideration.

[Rawlie19]

What has this thread got to do with Shane Long, Leroy Lita, or stats on who might be better? Stick it in the SHLong thread (that I can't be bothered to read because of that turnip Snowballs).

[Snowball]

Performance not Ability?


NOPE

It's PERCEIVED Performance and PERCEIVED ability, and PERCEPTIONS are often very, very wrong. Use the split opinion on James Haper as an example.

But GOALS scored (per minute played) and ASSISTS are closer to absolute facts than perceptions ever will be.

Even our manager is quoted as saying "Tommy Smith, statistically was the best midfielder in the Championship 2008-9"



I am, like any fan and ex-player, fully capable of watching a game when the only stat that counts is which side scores the most goals. I also have managed to watch soccer for 50+ years when it's only been in the last few years that the statistics were easily available.


However, one of my degrees is in psychology and I KNOW how much people get it wrong, and get it wrong more often than they get it right.

I have academic books on, for example "Evaluating Witness Evidence". It's a proven fact that expectations alter actual perceptions.

One example is where people are shown a black man and a white man arguing on the tube. One has a knife. The FACT is that the WHITE man has the knife and yet OVERWHELMINGLY people report the black man was the one with it. That is a case where people are under no pressure and should be right 100% of the time, but prejudice, racial stereotypes, subjectivity, and "expectation" distort "reality".

Another brilliant book is by Nisbett & Ross and called "Errors in Human Inference"

Basically people are absolutely CRAP at making judgments based on eyeballing.

The reason statistical analysis is growing is because it beats eyeballing every time.


On this list, with a few honourable exceptions, people make their minds up, cement their positions and
resolutely refuse to ever consider changing them. eg people are either "pro" or "anti" Harper and no
amount of argument can persuade them to change their mind.

It's very similar when I teach writing. Wannabe writers arrive, NOT to learn how the expert does it (and why)
(and I AM an expert on writing)... What they come for is to cherry-pick from what the published author
says, seeking out any tid-bits that reinforce what they already do.

It's the ones who have an open mind (not a high percentage) who can genuinely change, grow and succeed.


Now think of this list. There are those who wrote off Long years ago, end-of, so they say the poor first touch
but ignore the harassing, the chasing-down, the brave late goals, the excellent conversion rate...

You could create a similar scenario for Matejovsky or Cisse, or Harper and others.

The important thing is, never be open to changing your opinion or applying intelligence.

Instead use phrases like "Everyone knows X is gash and sucks the manager's dick. That's the only reason X ever gets a game."

[Plymouth_Royal]

No worries hoop blah. The skyports score centre I was referring to stats that are read as the football scores come like when rooney has started for man utd they've never lost etc. and by the media sports company i was referring to owen and tevez. If you check the brochure for michael owen that theyve produced you'll see stats like he had 27 shots last season and scored 9 goals from attacking midfield and only started 18 games.

[Ian Royal]

No worries hoop blah. The skyports score centre I was referring to stats that are read as the football scores come like when rooney has started for man utd they've never lost etc. and by the media sports company i was referring to owen and tevez. If you check the brochure for michael owen that theyve produced you'll see stats like he had 27 shots last season and scored 9 goals from attacking midfield and only started 18 games.

Doesn't that make Long a better finisher than Owen according to the stats?

[Matt de K]

I'm reading this thinking to myself; WTF has this all got to do with Smith? What a waste of time this thread has become.

[Ian Royal]

I'm reading this thinking to myself; WTF has this all got to do with Smith? What a waste of time this thread has become.

that's why I created a second, I realised this was unsalvageable.

[Vision]

In summary despite admitting his first touch and all round ability might be lacking in comparison to others, Snowball would always pick Long as the stats show that his goals per minutes record extrapolated over a season equates to a better goal scoring record than his rivals.

Is there really any need to keep banging on about this ad nauseam? Lets get onto the actual thread topic of Tommy Smith.

So the stats say Smith is a midfielder?

[Terminal Boardom]

"There's more to life than stats you know, but not much more". The Smiths - Handsome Devil

['lista]

Snowball,

Getting the occasional 'reader's letter' published in Fiesta and Razzle does not a 'professional writer' make.

[Snowball]

In summary despite admitting his first touch and all round ability might be lacking in comparison to others, Snowball would always pick Long as the stats show that his goals per minutes record extrapolated over a season equates to a better goal scoring record than his rivals.

I've actually said I am not at all sure Shane will fit into a 4-5-1 or a 4-3-3 when Smith/Church/Henry will (I think) serve that system better.

I would have no hesitation picking Shane as one of the 2 in a 4-4-2, however

[PieEater]

Personally I'd have Long on the bench as an impact sub in the last 20 minutes, that's were I think he is most effective. To me he's not yet up to leading the line.

[Royalwaster]

Can someone please move this thread to 'Anything else' or something like that as it is clearly no longer a discussion of a rumour but become a final resting ground for stats anoraks.