play-offs?

[weybridgewanderer]

I'm not frightened of promotion, though. The guaranteed sharp rise in income would mean we could strengthen the team, whereas if we stay down, Madejski will have to cloth cut again.

yet sunderland, who do have the premiership money, are announcing a £26M loss?

[glass half full]

Certainly wouldn't let Cummings go without a quality replacement such as Griff. I think Cummings is slightly better than Kelly, but one is a lot cheaper.

I've seen no evidence that Cummings is better than Kelly. Did not Kelly play when we beat Brum last season, without ever getting into difficulty? Maybe Brian can make a player out of either one. I imagine that's what Madejski will expect, rather than pay someone like Griffin. (Of course, I'd rather keep Griffin--same as I'd like to have kept Harding.)

How close is Kelly to full recovery?

[rg6royal]

Certainly wouldn't let Cummings go without a quality replacement such as Griff. I think Cummings is slightly better than Kelly, but one is a lot cheaper.

I've seen no evidence that Cummings is better than Kelly. Did not Kelly play when we beat Brum last season, without ever getting into difficulty? Maybe Brian can make a player out of either one. I imagine that's what Madejski will expect, rather than pay someone like Griffin. (Of course, I'd rather keep Griffin--same as I'd like to have kept Harding.)

How close is Kelly to full recovery?

He's out on loan

[glass half full]

Thanks for that. Where is he on loan? (very likerable character, by the way)

[NR_Royal]

Wycombe, I think

[Cookie]

If I was a bookie, I'd give odds of 50-1. It defies commonsense that our run of form would continue at this level with constant wins. Also it's a bit too euphoric to read too much into a series of home wins against teams in dodgy form. We aren't the finished package: we only scored one from open play yesterday, and it looks like we're again stuck without a recognised right back.

However, there's an outside chance. If the lower half teams keep playng with their present resilience, they'll repeatedly take points off upper half sides who, like last year's top six, will suffer from the promotion and play-off jitters. However, that scenario has a downside, because we may creep closer to the playoffs without creeping that far from the relegation spots, with most teams crushed together mid table. If our present relegation-fighting spirit turns into complacency, we could just as easily slip back into trouble again.

I'm not frightened of promotion, though. The guaranteed sharp rise in income would mean we could strengthen the team, whereas if we stay down, Madejski will have to cloth cut again.

Looks like you've covered all the bases there facaldaqui.
I was also concerned about us not converting superiority into goals yesterday, but they did their homework on us Long and Kebe were marked out of it all game, they can't put two or three on all our players I guess and that's why Sig did so well.

[Smoking Kills Dancing Doe]

If I was a bookie, I'd give odds of 50-1. It defies commonsense that our run of form would continue at this level with constant wins. Also it's a bit too euphoric to read too much into a series of home wins against teams in dodgy form. We aren't the finished package: we only scored one from open play yesterday, and it looks like we're again stuck without a recognised right back.

However, there's an outside chance. If the lower half teams keep playng with their present resilience, they'll repeatedly take points off upper half sides who, like last year's top six, will suffer from the promotion and play-off jitters. However, that scenario has a downside, because we may creep closer to the playoffs without creeping that far from the relegation spots, with most teams crushed together mid table. If our present relegation-fighting spirit turns into complacency, we could just as easily slip back into trouble again.

I'm not frightened of promotion, though. The guaranteed sharp rise in income would mean we could strengthen the team, whereas if we stay down, Madejski will have to cloth cut again.

Looks like you've covered all the bases there facaldaqui.
I was also concerned about us not converting superiority into goals yesterday, but they did their homework on us Long and Kebe were marked out of it all game, they can't put two or three on all our players I guess and that's why Sig did so well.

Don't worry about not converting chances, worry about not making them.

[Rev Algenon Stickleback H]

If I was a bookie, I'd give odds of 50-1. It defies commonsense that our run of form would continue at this level with constant wins. .

It doesn't need to. Winning 7 of 8 is 2.625 a game, which would see us finish with about 75 points. At the current rate 6th place Cardiff are going at 52/35 they are on target for only 68 points. We'd need 24 points from 12 games to match that. Not easy by any means, but not impossible either.

I can't see it happening at all, but unless we revert back to the pedestrian half-hearted football we played under Rodgers, we probably are more likely to get in the play-offs than go down.

[peterroyal76]

Wycombe, I think

Yeah its defo Wycombe, he even got the winner against Millwall a couple of weeks ago when his cross ended up going in!

[facaldaqui]

I'm not frightened of promotion, though. The guaranteed sharp rise in income would mean we could strengthen the team, whereas if we stay down, Madejski will have to cloth cut again.

yet sunderland, who do have the premiership money, are announcing a £26M loss?

They operate on a more ambitious model than we'd be able to; with much greater gate income, they can dabble with buying big-time players such as Darren Bent. If we went up, we'd probably have to look at players in the 2-3 million bracket, tops. Coppell did buy the likes of Fae and Halford for that sort of money, but he hated risk; maybe McDermott would have some better ideas. I wouldn't advocate us throwing money about the way Portsmouth did. The West Brom yo-yo model is probably the best one to look at.

[Avon Royal]

I'd take Iwelumo as a replacement for Rasiak.

Behave!

[themadstad]

I'm not frightened of promotion, though. The guaranteed sharp rise in income would mean we could strengthen the team, whereas if we stay down, Madejski will have to cloth cut again.

yet sunderland, who do have the premiership money, are announcing a £26M loss?

They operate on a more ambitious model than we'd be able to; with much greater gate income, they can dabble with buying big-time players such as Darren Bent. If we went up, we'd probably have to look at players in the 2-3 million bracket, tops. Coppell did buy the likes of Fae and Halford for that sort of money, but he hated risk; maybe McDermott would have some better ideas. I wouldn't advocate us throwing money about the way Portsmouth did. The West Brom yo-yo model is probably the best one to look at.

I look at Wigan a club with similar gates. In fact our gates were higher in the premier league. To me this shows we must have potential. They have come from the basement of the football league to the premier league fairly quickly. They've maintained their top flight status for the 4th season now.

Crucially though we need the right investment from someone who can see the potential.

As for this season, we are not going up! Simple reason we will not make the play offs!!!

Our promotion was followed by a great 1st season then we oxf*rd it up. Following that we had the chance of an instant automatic promotion which we oxf*rd up so had the chance of promotion via the play offs which we also oxf*rd up...!

[Ian Royal]

Wigan are a totally different type of club to us. They're a little smaller in fanbase (despite 4 years in the Prem), and they've got to the Prem and stayed their through spending which has been funded by a rich owner. Certainly their business model to get there was "chuck money at it 'til it happens".

[JC]

QPR W
Boro L
Leic D
WBA L
Ips W
Cov W
Card D
Newc L
Pboro W
Scunny W
Watf W
Pres W

I think we can get 7 wins from 12, with 23 points from 36. That would put us on 67 points, which wasn't enough last season, but could be this season.

That is not the first time I have seen somebody suggest 67 might be enough. Why is that because it never has been before. 68 is the lowest ever that would have made the play-offs and that was when we got 106 points. The average is 72 and I do not see why this year should be that different.

[Mr Angry]

As Tim Dellor said after the game, if we were to get into the paly-offs, we would be favorites because of the run we would have had.

However...........

............for us to get to the play-offs would mean not only would we have to continue in the vein of form we are in (which, looking at the next 4 games is unlikely though not impossible), but a large number of teams above us would have to continually drop points, and the problem is, they will be dropping points to other teams above us. So unless vast numbers of draws occur, we will fall short.

But...............

............for us to even THINK about the outside possibilty of doing the impossible (which, if it were to happen, would be as good an achievement as winning the Championship in 05/06 IMHO) shows what a stunning job McD has done for RFC.

[themadstad]

Many teams are in better positions. Blackpool and Coventry with Coventry starting a decent run of form. Middlesbrough also showing signs of picking up more points then there's QPR who were looking good value before the Magilton episode and will revert under Warnock! We have to play them all yet except Blackpool and they won't be easy at all. Defeat on Tuesday night for us, that's going to get QPR going.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Many teams are in better positions. Blackpool and Coventry with Coventry starting a decent run of form. Middlesbrough also showing signs of picking up more points then there's QPR who were looking good value before the Magilton episode and will revert under Warnock! We have to play them all yet except Blackpool and they won't be easy at all. Defeat on Tuesday night for us, that's going to get QPR going.

Agree - one of the top half teams on the law of averages must come in with a 2 point per game run which will stuff us what ever we do. Similarly at least one of the bottom sides will go very bad so again reckon we are OK there whatever we do.

[themadstad]

Many teams are in better positions. Blackpool and Coventry with Coventry starting a decent run of form. Middlesbrough also showing signs of picking up more points then there's QPR who were looking good value before the Magilton episode and will revert under Warnock! We have to play them all yet except Blackpool and they won't be easy at all. Defeat on Tuesday night for us, that's going to get QPR going.

Agree - one of the top half teams on the law of averages must come in with a 2 point per game run which will stuff us what ever we do. Similarly at least one of the bottom sides will go very bad so again reckon we are OK there whatever we do.

Also with our next run of 8 games we've got some of the top teams. We could well get dragged in to the bottom. Peterbrough appear to consider themselves down and as a result play with no pressure and get some wins. Sure enough they've just won 2. So all it'll take is for us to get some losses look close to bottom 3 with nerves play peterbrough that will be feeling less pressured. What I'm saying is we aren't yet safe for sure.

[facaldaqui]

Many teams are in better positions. Blackpool and Coventry with Coventry starting a decent run of form. Middlesbrough also showing signs of picking up more points then there's QPR who were looking good value before the Magilton episode and will revert under Warnock! We have to play them all yet except Blackpool and they won't be easy at all. Defeat on Tuesday night for us, that's going to get QPR going.

Donny are another rising team. Then there's Preston, who seem to be waking up.

[PEARCEY]

A few figures to contemplate. The average points total required to finish 6th is 74, that means we can only drop 6 more points till the end of the season. So that's 2 defeats or 3 draws and we must win all the others! It's very unlikely but I'm in the anything is possible camp and won't give up on it till it's a mathematical certainty. I hope the players feel the same way.

As for whether or not we want promotion this season, or next, or the season after, you can't choose like that! IF it happens you have you give it your best shot, I really can't understand anyone who says they don't want promotion, I'm sure the players and club do.

Forget about 74 points. Its a very strange division this time around. The likes of Coventry and Middlesboro are just outside the play-off positions despite winning as many as they have lost. You wait and see how many points it takes to finish 6th...it won't be close to 74