Goal scoring problems?

[Snowball]

Simple "Goals Scored" is NOT a very good predictor of league position.

Correct. In fact Middlesbrough finished bottom of the First Division in 1928 and scored a massive 81 goals in the process.
They conceded only 88! That season there was only 2 points seperating the bottom 9 clubs. What a season!
Boro had 37 points only 16 points from the champions (Everton) that season.(2 points for a win)

HTH

Yup and last year, despite scoring only 40 goals, Swansea were seventh,
six points and two places above Reading who scored 68 goals

[Snowball]

If our defence doesn't tighten up we'll need to find more goals.


Almost. In strict terms, as we are, creeping ahead on GD at the rate of 5 goals per six games, we are fine.

But I agree with you that things are "a bit tight" and any slight slippage at the back and we could quickly look not-so-good

If we suddenly become hard to score against then perhaps we won't miss that consistent goal threat from
our centre forward (whichever of our options are selected, they're all much of a muchness anyway).

Well, that's pretty much the case NOW. We have let in 9 goals all season (God knows how!)
and 5 of those were in the opening game and at Boro. So we've let in just four goals in the
other eight games. [b] Frankly, that amazes me, as we don't LOOK that solid or that difficult
to score against. Maybe it's the extra midfielder makes the difference? Dunno.

I only know that I didn't feel comfortable watching Boro, Leicester, Millwall, Ipswich, Forest, or Preston
attacking us, or for that matter Scunthorpe... but the facts are we have kept the opposition out, so far,
reasonably well. Hope it hasn't been "luck." Unless "luck" = Federici.


The two are linked though. The less we score the more pressure the defence come under to win us points, and physical pressure during the
game if we can't keep the ball in the opposition half, and so we're likely to leak more goals.


True. And there is also the thought that "goals change games" (ask Ipswich, Palace, Derby, Leicester) and scoring
a goal can, and often does, demoralise the opposition.

As ever, a balanced team with decent players will come good.
Our squad is still a bit unbalanced in terms of the right quality in a couple of areas.
It is a lot better than it was before the end of the transfer window though.

I don't think we can be unhappy with the back five now, two right backs and Gunnar as cover
Mills, Zurab, Ingi, Pearce, Harte (and Gunnar) covering the two centre-back positions.
Harte, Armstrong, Williams, Kelly (and Cummings) covering left back.

I don't think Long or Church are bad players, and I think Manager's orders may be affecting Shane's
play. Having Noel Hunt slowly improving cannot be a bad thing and there's Bignall and Taylor...

Central Midfield, Karacan, Howard, Tabb, Taylor and Gunnar as back-up (and Kish can play defensive middle too)

Wings: Kebe-Mcanuff backed up by Antonio-HRK is not too shabby.

[Hoop Blah]

The weaknesses I'm talking about are upfront and central midfield.

We have reasonable numbers (probably one light in the midfield considering our preference for 4-5-1 when) but I just don't think we have those 'better' players to bring the rest along a bit and add that bit of quality I think we need.

Upfront we don't have a player of the type or quality as the likes of Bothroyd, Kitson, Scotland (he didn't have the best of games against us but most of us have seen him excell at this level), Iwelumo, Robinson (if he continues as he is) etc etc...

I also think we need a real presence in the midfield. Someone to lead the rest of the team and who can run a game. Jem is doing ok, Tabb will be a bonus when he returns but we don't have someone who can consistently dominate a game.

[Wax Jacket]

^no real leader in midfield, agreed. the lack of a genuine goalscoring forward has been obvious for a couple of seasons.

[Maguire]

I also think we need a real presence in the midfield. Someone to lead the rest of the team and who can run a game. Jem is doing ok, Tabb will be a bonus when he returns but we don't have someone who can consistently dominate a game.

[Snowball]

I also think we need a real presence in the midfield. Someone to lead the rest of the team and who can run a game. Jem is doing ok, Tabb will be a bonus when he returns but we don't have someone who can consistently dominate a game.

Totally agree on that. Once upon a time there was always
a midfield general/leader.

I think our greatest weakness (despite the fact we seem to have spirit)
is the lack of a Murty/Adams

[Hoop Blah]

Have you got any stats to back that up snowball?

Or is it just one of those unfounded opinions you seem to be on a crusade to stamp out on here?

[Snowball]

Please note the word THINK.

[Hoop Blah]

Please note the word THINK.

Just checking because you seem to have a big problem at times with people doing the same thing and forming opinion without stats to back it up.

[Snowball]

Please note the word THINK.

Just checking because you seem to have a big problem at times with people doing the same thing and forming opinion without stats to back it up.

I give little credence to what i "think" or to what others "think" because subjectivity
and intuition is the weakest form of analysis.

For example. Most businessmen and women strongly believe in the importance
of the job interview despite the fact that the job interview has been clearly
shown to be the WEAKEST predictor of suitability for the job.

I KNOW that what I think, have a gut feel for, fancy, believe, reckon..
FEELS right, but I also know I am extremely fallible as are all human beings.

Read Nisbett & Ross "Errors in Human Inference".

[From Despair To Where?]

But why over analyse something that inspires blind loyalty, passion, emotion, opinion and, yes, fallibility in it's followers. Turn football into a spreadsheet and all you do is lose the inherent humanity and uncertainty that makes following your team so exiting in the first place? There is nothing wrong with following an instinct or a gut feeling about something, but you make it sound like a mental weakness to be deplored.

[Archie's penalty]

Romanticism vs rationalism on the team board.

[Snowball]

But why over analyse something that inspires blind loyalty, passion, emotion, opinion and, yes, fallibility in it's followers. Turn football into a spreadsheet and all you do is lose the inherent humanity and uncertainty that makes following your team so exiting in the first place? There is nothing wrong with following an instinct or a gut feeling about something, but you make it sound like a mental weakness to be deplored.

When I teach writers I teach them to be analytical BETWEEN stories but to "write drunk" (ie let go and DON'T be analytical.)

When I watch a game, I watch a game. The ref is ALWAYS biased against us. The other side gets the luck.

I'm just as blinkered, emotional, carried-away as the next guy or gal.

That's "at the game". Discussion should be based on reality not subjectivity.


Why do you think football managers and coaches take notes while watching the game?

Because recall is notoriously unreliable and selective.




Take the one example of converting corners. I was STUNNED to discover that last season we went 138 corners without scoring
and also 105 corners without scoring. It seems, when we check, "obvious" that we are virtually certain NOT to score when we
get a corner, BUT WATCHING A GAME, WE GET A CORNER, I THINK "50-50 CHANCE WE'LL SCORE NOW".

There's a reason for that. We over-emphasise the memories of corners we DID score from and discount the hundreds of misses.

But my "gut-feel", my "knowledge", before seeing the stats, was that we "often" scored from corners.

Last season we had 326, THREE-HUNDRED AND TWENTY-SIX UNSUCCESSFUL corners.


Without checking the figures, my gut-instinct, "I watch the game!" impression would have said

(a) We are 5-10 times better at converting corners.

(b) We score a lot more corners than in reality.



INCIDENTALLY, this season, we have ALREADY beaten our total number of goals-from-corners for last season

[Snowball]

Romanticism vs rationalism on the team board.

You can be both.

[Millsy]

Interesting thread Ian thanks.

I think you hit the nail on the head when despite the post you end up by saying things will be ok if we get a striker.

That's basically the bottom line.

Yes we're *doing ok*, getting goal here and there at the moment, in true "nearly-club" fashion, but it doesn't mean that we won't be even better off with a decent striker.

If Noel/Long/Church don't start learning how to score soon WE MUST GET ONE.

[Snowball]

Obviously, if Shane Long had scored 1 in 2 this year, (on top of the goals we DID get), we'd be top or second, now.

It's all very well to hypothetically "bring in a 20-goal striker"
but will that GOAL-SCORER do all the hard-work that
Long is currently being asked to do?

Jason Scotland seems to be doing well in the "1" role, AND getting goals, almost at 1 in 2
but who exactly would we bring in (if the money was made available) someone who will
do the running AND get the goals.

[Hoop Blah]

Jason Roberts
Chris Iwelumo
Steve Morison (not seen enough to judge his workrate but it looks ok to me so far in this division!)
James Vaughan (will have to see on the goals front)

That's obviously just a few off the top of my head without thinking about it and certainly without having a scouting network and wealth of contacts in the game to draw on.

[Snowball]

Players we can actually GET?

[Hoop Blah]

We could probably get Roberts if we really tried. He's not involved at Blackburn it would just be a case of selling first team Championship football to him.

We had the chance to sign Vaughan but turned it down and Iwelumo was available in the summer. According to some rumours we tried to sign Morison on deadline day but the deal ran out of time.

As I said, I don't have the clubs contacts or scouting network so don't know a hell of a lot about the forwards in the lower leagues (like Morison and Mackie), abroad or on the obscure players on the fringes of Premiership squads.

[Dave the rave]

Good points, Snowball, about selective memory recall.
Methinks you'll like this http://www.badscience.net/category/statistics/ as it's full of interpretation of statistics and how they're manipulated into bogus scientific then news stories.
His book is excellent too - just finished it.

Back to the footie - I reckon the more we score, the more likely we'll win and the more likely it'll be that we'll go up rather than get relegated