Harte Signs

[Wycombe Royal]

Noel Hunt for one.

I'm pretty sure Howard has done as well, although he obviously wasn't on the pitch at the time. I was thinking that McAnuff had as well, but I think I'm probably wrong on that front.

Oh yes I remember the Noel Hunt one at Birmingham now.

Howard's efforts seem very unconvincing and it is a long time sine he used to put them away for Barnsley. As for McAnuff.......

Basically none of them have the consistent quality that Harte has had thorughout his career direct from free kicks....

[Snowball]

This getting truly silly.

Harte got 18 goals last season, fabulous for a 32-year old fullback.

Yet when I raise that fact (18 goals) people say, "Ah, but he's just a dead-ball specialist."

And, now, even though he is that "dead-ball specialist" any old Tom, Dick or Harry could have scored.



Funny, how at the time of the two penalties it was pointed out that Long's was straight down
the middle and he got lucky, whereas Harte's was a bullet in the corner and unstoppable.

The manager brought in Harte for his experience in defence and for his dead-ball ability.


Harte has done exactly what was asked of him, yet the argument continues

[Snowball]

So, in TWO SEASONS, (1 season and ten games) Hunt, Howard, McAnuff between them have scored how many free-kicks?

Does the total reach three? Hunt's free-kick was Xmas 2008!

The three of them put together in a whole 46 goal season plus 10 league matches this season,
amassed the dizzy total of SEVEN goals in 54 league games.

1 Hunt Penalty
1 Hunt Header
1 Howard goal in open play
1 Howard goal in open play
1 McAnuff goal in open play
1 McAnuff goal in open play
1 McAnuff goal in open play

Oh and 1 MISSED penalty by Howard.

This is your evidence for good alternatives to take free-kicks and penalties?

15 months, 1 Penalty and one missed penalty between your three suggested players.

[Hoop Blah]

I agree on the last post snowball, but you were almost arguing that Harte's goals contribution was unique and a major contribution to our success when Stranded pointed out that none of his goals were match winners.

I was just pointing out that his goals were ones we may well have scored without his presence on the pitch because we have other players who've scored similar goals, albeit I have a lot more confidence in Harte's quality than others such as Long.

[Snowball]

I agree on the last post snowball, but you were almost arguing that Harte's goals contribution was unique and a major contribution to our success when Stranded pointed out that none of his goals were match winners. I was just pointing out that his goals were ones we may well have scored without his presence on the pitch because we have other players who've scored similar goals,


BUT NOT OFTEN or RECENTLY


albeit I have a lot more confidence in Harte's quality than others such as Long.

Anything is POSSIBLE. The referee could have kicked the ball in for us.

He's part of the field of play...

But the record of all the alternative players is hardly good in recent times.

[Hoop Blah]

Just for the record I don't agree on the bit in your earlier post about the number of goals they've scored over the past two years, not without seeing the number of free kicks they've taken.

Quite rightly Sigurdsson took the lions share of free kicks because, like Harte, we was very good at them.

[Snowball]

Just for the record I don't agree on the bit in your earlier post about the number of goals they've scored over the past two years, not without seeing the number of free kicks they've taken.

Quite rightly Sigurdsson took the lions share of free kicks because, like Harte, we was very good at them.

Ah-hah, so you're a player

[Snowball]

Just for the record I don't agree on the bit in your earlier post about the number of goals they've scored over the past two years, not without seeing the number of free kicks they've taken.

Quite rightly Sigurdsson took the lions share of free kicks because, like Harte, we was very good at them.

True, they might not have TAKEN any free kicks.

But it is still a fact that none of the three players,
in 56 consecutive league games over 14-15-16 months,
has scored one single free-kick.

On what logic should we therefore think they might be even half as good
as a player we know has scored about five-ten free-kicks in the same time
period, one of which we have seen with our own eyes as very good indeed,
a player who has been renowned throughout his career for free-kicks?

[Victor Meldrew]

of course the stats mean something.
and i never though SB was offering them up as a definitive answer to all questions, just as a point fo interest, and to challenge certain tightly held preconceptions on this list

PRECISELY!


I have subjective opinions, intuitions and gut-feelings like the next fan.

But they are VERY fallible.

Stats are EVIDENCE.

It's a fact that Carlisle have fallen away since Harte left and Reading have improved since Harte arrived.

I do NOT say and never have said that Harte is the ONLY reason.

But others wrote Harte off without even watching him!

I see that Carlisle continue to "fall way" since Harte left.
Have a look at the table-they are now 2nd and have conceded 6 league goals all season.
Perhaps they are not missing him quite as much as you think.

[Stranded]

5 clean sheets in 7 games since he left, only 1 in 4 when he was there.

[Victor Meldrew]

5 clean sheets in 7 games since he left, only 1 in 4 when he was there.

Oh dear Stranded you know that Snowball will be slaving away trying to work on spin to show "the facts" despite what we consider are the facts.
Perhaps his sale meant that the players now earn another £5 per week which makes them try harder or the saving on his salary means that the players now get treated to a pint after the game as long as they keep a clean sheet.

[Snowball]

Before
With such a small sample (was 5 league games without Harte now 6) a win (in game six)
has a massive effect overall. After 5 games the effect was "real and clear" but the sixth, a win
makes Carlisle look like it's less of a problem than we might have thought (or "I argued"

BUT IS IT?

Before.

H W 2-0 Brentford
A D 1-1 Plymouth
H W 4-1 MK Dons
A D 1-1 Colchester
H D 0-0 Swindon Town

P5 W2 D3 L0 8-3 GD of 5 (+1 per game) 9 Points from 5 games = 1.8 points per game


After

A W 1-0 Sheffield Wed
H D 0-0 Brighton
A L 0-2 Bournemouth
A W 4-0 Hartlepool
H L 0-1 Peterborough
H W 1-0 Notts County

P6 W3 D1 L2 6-3 10 Points (and four clean sheets)

The Hartlepool game (4-0 win) might well be covering up a nasty problem.
In five other games their GD is 2-3 having failed to score in 50%
of their league games since Harte left. Of course, it's worth noting
that when Harte was there they were UNDEFEATED and have since lost
a third (2/6) of their league games.


P5 W2 D3 L0 8-3 GD of 5 (+ 1.0 per game) 09 Points from 5 games = 1.80 points per game = 83 Points GD 46 over a season 1 points off top place Before
P6 W3 D1 L2 6-3 GD of 3 (+ 0.5 per game) 10 Points from 6 games = 1.67 points per game = 77 Points GD 23 over a season 3 points off top place After

6 points over a season is the difference between 83 = 5th (PLAY-OFFS) and 77 = 7th, (last season) and of course an extra 23 goals GD is worth a point.


IF Carlisle win their next game, they'll be 13 from 7 = 1.857 ppg compared to the 1.80 Harte left them with. (2.6 points extra in a season)

Let's wait and see.

[Snowball]

5 clean sheets in 7 games since he left, only 1 in 4 when he was there.

But they've conceded 2 goals twice, whereas the worst case "before" was a single goal.

Surely it's GD you have to look at?

8-3 league (+5 in 5), 8-4 all games (+4 in 6) (before)
6-3 league (+3 in 6), 8-5 all games (+3 in 7) (after)

I was only looking at their league games BTW

Their record since he left is worse on goals scored per game,
marginally better in terms of goals conceded, but overall
worse in terms of goal-superiority (GD) and points per game.


They are REALLY struggling to score goals now. 0-0-0-1-1-4 and 2-2 (versus a club from a lower league)


Plus their won 4-0 win skews everything. See how it averages out after another 5 games.

[Ian Royal]

[Stranded]

5 clean sheets in 7 games since he left, only 1 in 4 when he was there.

But they've conceded 2 goals twice, whereas the worst case "before" was a single goal.

Surely it's GD you have to look at?

8-3 league (+5 in 5), 8-4 all games (+4 in 6) (before)
6-3 league (+3 in 6), 8-5 all games (+3 in 7) (after)

I was only looking at their league games BTW

Their record since he left is worse on goals scored per game,
marginally better in terms of goals conceded, but overall
worse in terms of goal-superiority (GD) and points per game.


They are REALLY struggling to score goals now. 0-0-0-1-1-4 and 2-2 (versus a club from a lower league)


Plus their won 4-0 win skews everything. See how it averages out after another 5 games.

So since Harte left then we can say that they are less likely to concede, but if one goes in they are more likely to let in a second.

[Stranded]

Oh and Harte didn't play against Swindon - he'd already signed for us.

[Snowball]

So since Harte left then we can say that they are less likely to concede, but if one goes in they are more likely to let in a second.

And you could also say they have lost their goal-scoring ability almost totally
apart from one anomalous result against Hartlepool who have the worst goals-
against record in the league (4 goals conceded more than the second worst team)

and are playing an extremely tight game because of it, looking for 0-0 or hoping to nick 1-0
and when they have conceded and have had to come out, they are more vulnerable

Evidence?

0-0
0-0
1-0
1-0
0-1

0-2
2-2 (They were 0-2 down at home to League 2 side Port Vale)

and the out-of-character 4-0

[Snowball]

Oh and Harte didn't play against Swindon - he'd already signed for us.

Thanks for pointing that out. It makes the Harte effect stronger


Before.

H W 2-0 Brentford
A D 1-1 Plymouth
H W 4-1 MK Dons
A D 1-1 Colchester

P4 W2 D2 L0 8-3 GD of +5 in 4 (GD + 1.25 per game) 08 Points from 4 games = 2.00 points per game = 92 Point Season 57 goal GD Before
P7 W3 D2 L2 6-3 GD of +3 in 7 (GD + 0.42 per game )11 Points from 7 games = 1.57 points per game = 72 Point Season 19 goal GD After

After

H D 0-0 Swindon Town
A W 1-0 Sheffield Wed
H D 0-0 Brighton
A L 0-2 Bournemouth
A W 4-0 Hartlepool
H L 0-1 Peterborough
H W 1-0 Notts County

P7 W3 D2 L2 6-3 GD of +3 in 7 (GD + 0.42 per game )11 Points from 7 games = 1.57 points per game = 72 Point Season 19 goal GD


Sot these figures were wrong. The Harte effect is much bigger

P5 W2 D3 L0 8-3 GD of 5 (+ 1.0 per game) 09 Points from 5 games = 1.80 points per game = 83 Points GD 46 over a season 1 points off top place Before
P6 W3 D1 L2 6-3 GD of 3 (+ 0.5 per game) 10 Points from 6 games = 1.67 points per game = 77 Points GD 23 over a season 3 points off top place After

CORRECTED

P4 W2 D2 L0 8-3 GD of +5 in 4 (GD + 1.25 per game) 08 Points from 4 games = 2.00 points per game = 92 Point Season 57 goal GD
P7 W3 D2 L2 6-3 GD of +3 in 7 (GD + 0.42 per game )11 Points from 7 games = 1.57 points per game = 72 Point Season 19 goal GD

[Snowball]

The number of games is small, of course it is, but "your side"
decided to invoke the "Look how well Carlisle are doing since" argument.

P4 W2 D2 L0 8-3 GD of +5 in 4 (GD + 1.25 per game) 08 Points from 4 games = 2.00 points per game = 92 Point Season 57 goal GD WITH Harte
P7 W3 D2 L2 6-3 GD of +3 in 7 (GD + 0.42 per game )11 Points from 7 games = 1.57 points per game = 72 Point Season 19 goal GD W/O Harte



92 Points last season would have been automatic promotion, 7 points clear of 3rd placed Millwall
72 Points last season would have been eighth, equal points with ninth place but above 9th on GD


Now that you've resurrected the stats and are shown to be totally wrong
I suggest you go back to the argument you were trying to make
that Carlisle have had much harder games since Harte left.

[Snowball]

Now that you've resurrected the stats and are shown to be totally wrong
I suggest you go back to the argument you were trying to make
that Carlisle have had much harder games since Harte left.

I've done it for you...

Opposition average League Position (NOW) 15th With Harte
Opposition average League Position (NOW) 09th W/0 Harte

You should remember though that league position is affected BY the results.

For example, MK Dons are currently 8th with a GD of 0. Carlisle put them there.

Had the result at Carlisle been 1-1 and not 4-1 to Carlisle MK Dons would have a GD of +3 and be 5th