Harte Signs

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Ian Royal
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Re: Harte Signs

by Ian Royal » 13 Oct 2010 18:20

Hoop Blah What it doesn't ignore is that I enjoyed watching him play a hell of a lot more than the rest of the team because he was quality.

It doesn't ignore the fact that we've played a few games where the opposition have collapsed after we've nicked a fortunate goal etc etc.

The stats don't show the full picture, but I'd just love to see you do a comparison of last season's form with Sigurdsson in the side and compare it to this seasons form without him. I think that could be very interesting.

I'd suggest only including the games after McDermott took over because we clearly weren't performing to the level we should have been under Rodgers. On that basis I'd argue a complete picture of last season's games which Gylfi played in would be significantly flawed.

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Re: Harte Signs

by sandman » 13 Oct 2010 18:27

You can come up with all the stats you want it doesn't change the fact that we lost a very special player in August who could change games with moments of genius likethis:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwUmQZI7ias&feature=related

and

http://soccer-portal.org/cat/video/1310-gylfi-thor-sigurdsson-goal-v-west-brom.html

and

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INbv6LOGZ0Q

and

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyBuvdIigjs

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Re: Harte Signs

by Snowball » 13 Oct 2010 19:02

Hoop Blah What it doesn't ignore is that I enjoyed watching him play a hell of a lot more than the rest of the team because he was quality.


ME TOO! And I'd love to see him in a Reading shirt, right now.

But "What I like" and "What I want to see" don't necessarily correspond
with what is good for the team, the club, the team's results.


I'm sure some fans would quite like Reading FC to be made up of gorgeous naked females

Doesn't mean we'd win any games.


But we can watch a game to watch one individual on fire, Gylfi for example, or Kebe right now.

OR we can enjoy great TEAM PLAY from a team with no stars, but character, courage, commitment and energy.

Overall, I'd rather watch the latter, but most importantly I want to see us winning games and challenging
and whether that's because we have 9 workhorses and two geniuses or 11 very hard-working, quite-decent players.

In the case of Gylfi I am convinced his leaving was very good for the club
and I do not enjoy games any less than I did before. Moments of magic
are nice and too-memorable. RESULTS stay on the record book and
promotion is promotion, making the play-offs is making the play-offs.



It doesn't ignore the fact that we've played a few games where the opposition have collapsed after we've nicked a fortunate goal etc etc.

Oh, fer God's sake! Isn't that a bit desperate?
Now, after ten games in a season, we are just lucky?
Weren't we UNlucky against Scunthorpe? Didn't a good kebe
goal get called offside? Wasn't the OG at Pompey a bit unlucky?
Didn't we gift Forest their equaliser?


"Luck" averages out.


The stats don't show the full picture, but I'd just love to see you do a comparison of last season's form with Sigurdsson in the side and compare it to this seasons form without him. I think that could be very interesting.

YEEHAH!


But before I do, what will you say if I show we are clearly better?

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Re: Harte Signs

by Snowball » 13 Oct 2010 19:22


The stats don't show the full picture, but I'd just love to see you do a comparison of last season's form with Sigurdsson in the side and compare it to this seasons form without him. I think that could be very interesting.






What will you say if I show we are clearly better?



Here you are, Hoop

P39 W16 D11 L12 69-51 1.51 ppg = 69.46 Point 46-Game Season League -- Games with Gylfi Last Season
P06 W03 D02 L01 09-04 1.83 ppg = 84.33 Point 46-Game Season League -- Games this season since Gylfi left

I've multiplied both up to make a 46-Point Season Projection

P46 W19 D13 L14 81-60 = 70 Point Season GD +21 @ 1.52 Points Per Game Gylfi Last Season
P46 W23 D15 L08 69-31 = 84 Point Season GD +38 @ 1.83 Points Per Game This season after Gylfi left.

Maybe it's the Rodgers effect, dragging down the Gylfi ppg.

Maybe if we look at only McDermot Games, maybe THEN there will be
a combination that makes Reading score more points with Gylfi.

So far I haven't found one

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Re: Harte Signs

by Snowball » 13 Oct 2010 19:44

Stroke of luck.

Gylfi, last season UNDER McDERMOT played 23 games, half-a-season

P23 W09 D07 L07 39-29 36 Points Equivalent of a 72 Point Season and a GD of +20


As posted before, Reading FC this season, since Gylfi left

P46 W23 D15 L08 69-31 = 84 Points GD +38 The Post-Gylfi Era 2010
P46 W18 D07 L07 78-58 = 61 Points GD +20 Gylfi's "Mac" League Games


So sorry Hoop, sorry Ian, but we can't blame Rodgers, either

Last season we won more points without Gylfi With Manager = Rodgers
Last season we won more points without Gylfi With Manager = McDermott

This Season we won more points without Gylfi With Manager = McDermott

We have more "points per game" with or without cups, too


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Re: Harte Signs

by Ian Royal » 13 Oct 2010 19:55

But it is also clear that Gylfi contributed masses with goals, free kicks, assists and general play all in one player that we do not have now and this is where the statistics fall down. Because they are a look at just one of almost countless variables. There is no way they can show what Gylfi would have added had he still been here and no way of showing what the results in the games he did play in would have been without him.

It is just as stupid, blinkered and pointless to say that we are actually better off without Gylfi based on these stats (which whilst you might not actively be saying that it's essentially what you are implying intentionally or not) as it was for other posters to say we were screwed this season and relegation fodder because he was sold just because he was our most talented player.

Try settling for the moaning morons being shown to be wrong, that we aren't falling apart, as that's blatantly obvious with or without your stats. Stats which only succeed in clouding the issue by appearing to suggest we're better off without him. Which is nonsense. Our goalscoring threat is weaker and our midfield's creativity and depth is weaker.

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Re: Harte Signs

by Snowball » 13 Oct 2010 21:00

Perhaps I should be clearer.


WE-ARE-BETTER-OFF-WITHOUT-GLYFI


There's an exericse I teach when critiquing stories. When a few people are convinced a story is good (when in fact it isn't)
or when a few simply cannot see why a story is rated when they think it's bad, I get them to "try and mark the opposite way."

Now, why don't you and Hoop, for example try to work out WHY,
if Gylfi is such a good player (and he is) we got better results
last season when he didn't play, under Rodgers, under McDermot
and with the two sets of results combined, and again (so far) we
are getting better results THIS season.

If, instead of arguing for the sake of it in the face of very clear statistics,
you actually did the mind exercise, you might get somewhere.

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Re: Harte Signs

by Snowball » 13 Oct 2010 21:00

Here are some possible answers.


Last Season.

(a) To play Gylfi, we had to alter our natural way. There was a lot of faffing about trying to get a team together who would accommodate his talent.

He wasn't that good out on the wing, he needed to be central, but he didn't have the strength or tenacity to play a genuine midfield, ball-winning role.
Though he could play some beautiful passes (he got 9 assists in the season) he could also "disappear" for periods of the game. He had brilliant moments
but wasn't any kind of midfield general. It is an absolute fact that we conceded more goals when he played.

(b) The stats for shots show he had a disproportionate number of shots for a midfielder/deep striker. he had 20% more than Church and Long combined
and that is quite amazing. His LETHALITY was NOT brilliant. He converted 1 in 6 when the best were 1 in 4, so MAYBE the players were a little too keen
to give the ball to Gylfi, when MAYBE other options might be better. Long, for example, has always had a very high conversion-rate chances to goals.
Or MAYBE (not stating this) Gylfi was a selfish player, and full of confidence, took on the shot when he might have passed.

Silly idea? Church scored 12 from his 50 chances, wasted about 40. Ditto Long. Gylfi wasted 100 chances. That is one hell of a lot of misses.

Crazy? After all, in those 23 games under McDermott last year, Gylfi scored 11 times.

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Re: Harte Signs

by Snowball » 13 Oct 2010 21:06

THIS SEASON

Same things apply. I still think Long is a far better player in a 4-4-2 and I still don't think
we are a "natural 4-5-1 side"... we contort ourselves to play Gylfi.

Yes, I know we still choose to play 4-5-1. I think that might be because
we don't have a strong enough "2" in midfield or perhaps we have got
into a 4-5-1 habit.

Second. Money from selling Gylfi has allowed us to bring in Harte and Zurab
PLUS the players know we have money to improve with a loanee or in January

Zurab has improved the defense, improved competition, will be passing on his experience to the younger players
Harte has improved the defense, improved competition, will be passing on his experience to the younger players, and has scored two goals

Neither of these would have happened if we did not sell Gylfi.


OTHER PLAYERS ARE BLOSSOMING now that Gylfi has gone.

Howard has already got 4 assists. Last season, the whole season, he had 5. He's on target for 18 assists if he maintains this rate.
Kebe is on target for 9/10 assists and 18 goals. Last season he was 7 assists and 12 goals
Harte is on target for 12 goals. Last season the LB scored 1 goal


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Re: Harte Signs

by Ian Royal » 13 Oct 2010 23:31

Snowball Perhaps I should be clearer.


WE-ARE-BETTER-OFF-WITHOUT-GLYFI


There's an exericse I teach when critiquing stories. When a few people are convinced a story is good (when in fact it isn't)
or when a few simply cannot see why a story is rated when they think it's bad, I get them to "try and mark the opposite way."

Now, why don't you and Hoop, for example try to work out WHY,
if Gylfi is such a good player (and he is) we got better results
last season when he didn't play, under Rodgers, under McDermot
and with the two sets of results combined, and again (so far) we
are getting better results THIS season.

If, instead of arguing for the sake of it in the face of very clear statistics,
you actually did the mind exercise, you might get somewhere.


It's a piece of piss to explain that. It's because good as he is, Gylfi was one important, but small part of what goes into a performance and result. Gylfi is not responsible for two Matt Mills cock ups against Scunthorpe, or Federici gifting the ball to Earnshaw against Forest.... but for that there's two games that look quite different. Clearly the reverse also works that he could have put away some of the chances he missed last season, or when he hit the woodwork this season.

Football is a complex game, played in many different locations, in many different conditions, with different tactics, different oppositions, different combinations of players in the side you support and ultimately managed and played by humans, who in themselves offer enormous variation.

Why don't you try looking at the bigger picture, rather than getting tunnel vision looking at some extremely limited statistics about one tiny aspect of the team and it's performances. Because those statistics are taken completely out of context of all the other myriad variables that combined to give us the list of results of you are using.

EDIT: Remove a player with ~ 20 goals and ~ 10 assists from midfield and don't replace him there and you are weaker. Gylfi scored from a freekick this season,hit the woodwork twice, and had a decent penalty conversion rate last season iirc. There is no reason to believe he wouldn't have converted an equivalent number of chances to those Harte managed, maybe more.

With Armstrong back and looking good we have an improved defence without the need of Harte (not that I don't want him here). Khiz is an improvement in squad depth certainly, but so far this season the jury has to be out on his contribution given his two games, one sending off and one poor passage of play leading to a soft goal. Even so, is half a dozen games with Harte, some defensive cover and the possibility of having money available for more players in January (the amount available or quality of the player still very much far from clear) good enough to replace Gylfi and make us as strong if not stronger without him than with him? IMO No.

But then it hasnt compromised our season much and has helped the finances so we can live with it.

A fundamental of statistics and their interpretation must surely be that correlation =/= causation, which is what you are suggesting.

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Re: Harte Signs

by Snowball » 14 Oct 2010 07:59

Ian Royal
It's a piece of piss to explain that. It's because good as he is, Gylfi was one important, but small part of what goes into a performance and result. Gylfi is not responsible for two Matt Mills cock ups against Scunthorpe, or Federici gifting the ball to Earnshaw against Forest.... but for that there's two games that look quite different. Clearly the reverse also works that he could have put away some of the chances he missed last season, or when he hit the woodwork this season.

OH, I SEE, SO DESPITE THE FACT THAT OVER SIXTEEN GAMES OVER TWO SEASONS, SIXTEEN GAMES
WHEN WE PLAYED WITHOUT GYLFI WE AVERAGED BETTER RESULTS, THAT DOESN'T MATTER?

NO HARTE LAST YEAR, NO ARMSTRONG, AND YET WHEN WE PLAYED WITHOUT GYLFI WE GOT BETTER RESULTS. FACT


Football is a complex game,

I DIDN'T KNOW THAT.

played in many different locations, in many different conditions, with different tactics, different oppositions, different combinations of players in the side you support and ultimately managed and played by humans, who in themselves offer enormous variation.

YES, THAT'S WHY YOU SEE EFFECTS BY LOOKING AT STATISTICS
BECAUSE THEY EVEN OUT HOME/AWAY, RAIN-SHINE

AND LEVEL OF OPPOSITION




Why don't you try looking at the bigger picture, rather than getting tunnel vision looking at some extremely
limited statistics about one tiny aspect of the team and it's performances. Because those statistics are taken
completely out of context of all the other myriad variables that combined to give us the list of results of you are using.

YOU ARE AN IDIOT.
HOW ARE THESE STATS "TAKEN OUT OF CONTEXT"?


43 (3) GAMES GYLFI PLAYED, A WHOLE SEASON'S WORTH OF GAMES. HOW MANY IS "FAIR" TO YOU?


EDIT: Remove a player with ~ 20 goals and ~ 10 assists from midfield and don't replace him there and you are weaker.

SO HOW COME WHEN YOU REMOVE THAT PLAYER YOU DO BETTER?

Gylfi scored from a freekick this season,hit the woodwork twice, and had a decent penalty conversion rate last season iirc.
There is no reason to believe he wouldn't have converted an equivalent number of chances to those Harte managed, maybe more.

FOR STARTERS, HOW MANY PENALTIES HAVE WE HAD AND SCORED THIS SEASON?

TWO AND SCORED TWO, 100%

WAS GYLFI 100%?

BUT IT DOESN'T MATTER. BECAUSE EVEN WHEN HE PLAYED AND SCORED, AND DIDN'T MISS PENALTIES, WE DID WORSE OVERALL



With Armstrong back and looking good we have an improved defence without the need of Harte (not that I don't want him here). Khiz is an improvement in squad depth certainly, but so far this season the jury has to be out on his contribution given his two games, one sending off and one poor passage of play leading to a soft goal. Even so, is half a dozen games with Harte, some defensive cover and the possibility of having money available for more players in January (the amount available or quality of the player still very much far from clear) good enough to replace Gylfi and make us as strong if not stronger without him than with him? IMO No. But then it hasnt compromised our season much and has helped the finances so we can live with it.


IT HASN'T COMPROMISED OUR SEASON MUCH?

IT HASN'T COMPROMISED OUR SEASON AT ALL.

WE ARE BETTER OFF POINTS WISE THAN WITH GYLFI. FACT


A fundamental of statistics and their interpretation must surely be that correlation =/= causation, which is what you are suggesting.


I AM NOT SUGGESTING IT. I'M STATING IT AS FACT.

WE ARE MORE BALANCED, BETTER DEFENSIVELY, HAVE A BETTER SHAPE,
OTHER PLAYERS ARE STEPPING UP TO THE PLATE, THERE'S LESS RELIANCE
ON ONE PROFLIGATE MF/STRIKER, AND WE ARE HIGHER UP THE LEAGUE,
SIX PLACES.



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Re: Harte Signs

by Stranded » 14 Oct 2010 09:29

But Snowball as has already been mentioned, you can look at 2 of the four games with Glyfi this season and quite clearly see the reason we did not win was individual errors by other members of the team (poss 3 if you take Pompey in to account) cost us a win - this was not as a result of Glyfi being in the team - I'm sure if you looked back at other games you would see other instances.

Mistakes by other players whilst Glyfi created or scored in the same game - how can you correlate those errors against the effect of another individual - did playing Glyfi cause Federici to kick the ball against Karacan allowing Earnshaw to score?

I would also argue that last year, the four or so games he didn't play were not grouped together (as far as I can tell from looking at the results) - indivdual games in isolation it is often easier to cover the loss of a star player - or the team may well have been in good form at the time meaning the loss of one component was not felt as much (if at all).

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Re: Harte Signs

by Vision » 14 Oct 2010 10:04

FWIW I kind of agree with Snowball that the loss of Gylfi has been greatly exaggerated in terms of the consequences of the team's results, all the stats in the world can't indicate the enjoyment people got from watching him play and how much we'll miss that.

Also because I once before checked his stats over something and they proved to be incorrect I thought I'd at least give this a go.

League games since McDermott took temporary charge @ Bristol City which Gylfi started (including the 4 games of this season)

Played - 23: Won - 8: Drew - 8: Lost - 7: Pts - 32: GD - +9 ' Gylfi scored 14 goals (4 pens)

League games since McDermott took temporary charge @ Bristol City which Gylfi didn't start (including the 6 games of this season)

P12 - W7 - D2 - L3 - Pts23 - GD+9

Now to draw an absolute conclusion that we are better off without him is a bit daft given that the sample of games without is only half of those with but I do agree that in terms of results his loss in terms of results has been greatly overdone by many. I might re-visit this (probably wont be arsed though) after the next 11 games which would form a more meaningful stat comparison.

Mind you LOL @ Snowball for taking a 6 game sample (post Gylfi 2010) and drawing a comparison with a 23 game sample (Gylfi games under McDermott).

Extra LOL @ me for bothering with this stuff in the first place.

Mega LOL @ this having bugger all to do with Ian Harte signing.

EDIT. My bad, tbf to Snowball that post Gylfi comparison was requested by someone else. Still daft though.
Last edited by Vision on 14 Oct 2010 10:54, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: Harte Signs

by Schards#2 » 14 Oct 2010 10:46

Statistically, ignoring penalties, if Shane Long continues to score for Reading at the same that he has this season, he will score a total of 0 goals in the remainder of his career.

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Re: Harte Signs

by Hoop Blah » 14 Oct 2010 10:49

Snowball

The stats don't show the full picture, but I'd just love to see you do a comparison of last season's form with Sigurdsson in the side and compare it to this seasons form without him. I think that could be very interesting.






What will you say if I show we are clearly better?



Here you are, Hoop

P39 W16 D11 L12 69-51 1.51 ppg = 69.46 Point 46-Game Season League -- Games with Gylfi Last Season
P06 W03 D02 L01 09-04 1.83 ppg = 84.33 Point 46-Game Season League -- Games this season since Gylfi left

I've multiplied both up to make a 46-Point Season Projection

P46 W19 D13 L14 81-60 = 70 Point Season GD +21 @ 1.52 Points Per Game Gylfi Last Season
P46 W23 D15 L08 69-31 = 84 Point Season GD +38 @ 1.83 Points Per Game This season after Gylfi left.

Maybe it's the Rodgers effect, dragging down the Gylfi ppg.

Maybe if we look at only McDermot Games, maybe THEN there will be
a combination that makes Reading score more points with Gylfi.

So far I haven't found one


Thanks for these snowball, they don't change my opinion that we were a better side with Sigurdsson in the line up, but it's interesting to see the results.

It does show how it's unlikely that one player can improve our teams fortunes on his own though, so there probably isn't such a thing as the 'Player X Effect' afterall.

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Re: Harte Signs

by Hoop Blah » 14 Oct 2010 11:00

Vision FWIW I kind of agree with Snowball that the loss of Gylfi has been greatly exaggerated in terms of the consequences of the team's results, all the stats in the world can't indicate the enjoyment people got from watching him play and how much we'll miss that.


Totally agree. Results don't always reflect ability or performances and my biggest regret when losing Sigurdsson is that as a football fan I'll no longer get to watch him up close every week.

Just like Glen Little Sigurdsson actually made going to games worthwhile and as entertaining as Kebe and McAnuff can be they just don't have the same sparkle.

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Re: Harte Signs

by Nomad_Royal » 14 Oct 2010 11:07

Snowball

The stats don't show the full picture, but I'd just love to see you do a comparison of last season's form with Sigurdsson in the side and compare it to this seasons form without him. I think that could be very interesting.






What will you say if I show we are clearly better?



Here you are, Hoop

P39 W16 D11 L12 69-51 1.51 ppg = 69.46 Point 46-Game Season League -- Games with Gylfi Last Season
P06 W03 D02 L01 09-04 1.83 ppg = 84.33 Point 46-Game Season League -- Games this season since Gylfi left

I've multiplied both up to make a 46-Point Season Projection

P46 W19 D13 L14 81-60 = 70 Point Season GD +21 @ 1.52 Points Per Game Gylfi Last Season
P46 W23 D15 L08 69-31 = 84 Point Season GD +38 @ 1.83 Points Per Game This season after Gylfi left.

Maybe it's the Rodgers effect, dragging down the Gylfi ppg.

Maybe if we look at only McDermot Games, maybe THEN there will be
a combination that makes Reading score more points with Gylfi.

So far I haven't found one




The problem I have with this analysis is the small number of "after Gylfi" games you are analysing. Lets assume that we play brilliantly in our next match dominate but fail to score and in the 93 minute the ball flies into our goal off of a defenders backside. Your after Gylfi stats then become

P07 W03 D02 L02 09-05 1.57 ppg = 72.28 Point 46-Game Season League -- Games this season since Gylfi left

In other words not really any different to the with Gylfi figures on on a points per game basis.

Now would this prove Snowball wrong and others right - of course not.It merely proves that a decent sample is needed before making sweeping statments. So Snowball I really dont think you should be so vociferous based on such a small sample.

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Re: Harte Signs

by donface » 14 Oct 2010 11:11

And this is why I don't read the team board.

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Re: Harte Signs

by Duke the Dog » 14 Oct 2010 11:24

F*ck me, are you lot still going on about losing Gyfli!?

Look, he's gone, very sad, would've nice if he'd stayed, but it happens and it did.

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Re: Harte Signs

by Svlad Cjelli » 14 Oct 2010 11:29

Duke the Dog F*ck me, are you lot still going on about losing Gyfli!?

Look, he's gone, very sad, would've nice if he'd stayed, but it happens and it did.


No, that's only a side-note. The main thread is trying to use statistics of the whole team's results to prove the merits or deficiencies of one individual player in that team!

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