Long - Time to go.

[Snowball]

As I said, Forlan has no relevance to this thread.

Forlan IS relevant. Just as Mark Hughes or Kevin Doyle are relevant.


They are examples of a forward having a blank time.

Funny that, when I brought Sheringham into the argument I was told he was not relevant. As I said Snowball, just making up your own rules and fitting everything to your argument, as you go along.

Please stop being a twat. You were trying to obfuscate and complicate an argument and send us off into
esoteric bollox about two players I have zero interest in, who play for a team I have even less interest in
and for an argument that is unresovable.

Choosing to cite EXAMPLES OF STRIKER WHO HAVE TEMPORARILY FAILED TO FIND THE NET is not REMOTELY the same thing.

[Snowball]

You claim Forlan made 106 appearances for Villereal in total, scoring 54 goals, all competitions.

Check again. That is clearly not his record in all competitions for Villereal. You've made the same rudimentary error on his Atletico stats.

Actually I don't "CLAIM" anything. I merely cited some stats on a web site.

But PLEASE, do tell what the correct figures are

[cmonurz]

If you can't even read, no wonder your stats are all over the place.

Click this link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diego_Forl%C3%A1n

Scroll down to the career statistics section.
Go to the total line for Villereal.

106 games, 54 goals, in the league (as indicated by the 'League' heading for that column)

Scroll to the right.

128 games, 59 goals, in all competitions (as indicated by the 'Total' heading for that column).

Try again, Snowball.

[cmonurz]

Please stop being a twat. You were trying to obfuscate and complicate an argument and send us off into
esoteric bollox about two players I have zero interest in, who play for a team I have even less interest in
and for an argument that is unresovable.

Choosing to cite EXAMPLES OF STRIKER WHO HAVE TEMPORARILY FAILED TO FIND THE NET is not REMOTELY the same thing.

You are incredibly rude, you know. You have no respect for me, and I'm a twat, because I disagree with you? Unbelievable.

You are also incredibly arrogant. My bringing Sheringham into the debate is no different to you bringing Forlan into it. It's not for you to decide what is and isn't relevant to your line of thinking or that supports your argument before continuing the discussion. This is a discussion board. Have the decency to discuss things with people without resorting to personal insults.

[Snowball]

So what you are saying is that the SUMMARY stats posted at the top are not quite accurate?

Oh my God!

You mean the summary stats that say or imply "all games" are actually only domestic games? (excluding, of course, his games for Uruguay)?

Oh NO!


You mean that where it says 80 games 21 goals (Independiente) and I thought that was "all games" it was, in fact, domestic games
AND WRONG, ANYWAY, BECAUSE THE ACTUAL FIGURES (IF THEY ARE RIGHT OF COURSE) are 80 games 37 goals?



JEEZ, you are really scraping the barrel. I posted from a web-site, a simple example of a player who temporarily lost goal-scoring form

BEFORE Man U he was about 1 in 2 40 in 91 if the stats are correct = 1 in 2.275
AT Man U he was 17 in 98 if the stats are correct = 1 in 5.76 not even half as good
After Man U he was even better 59 in 128 if the stats are correct = 1 in 2.17 Villareal
After Man U for the next club he was better again! 89 in 165 if the stats are correct = 1 in 1.85


All these figures don't change my original point, they just reinforce it with more games and you are just getting desperate.

Forlan was scoring 1 goal in 2.275 games if the stats are correct

then he "failed" at Manchester United

Then he came good again if the stats are correct scoring 1 goal in 2.17 if the stats are correct and then even better if the stats are correct at 1 in 1.85


Now HOW exactly has my argument been weakened?

[Snowball]

You are incredibly rude, you know. You have no respect for me, and I'm a twat, because I disagree with you? Unbelievable.

Not at all. Intelligent, well-argued disagreement is a sought after commodity.

I teach that, "The truth is in the sparks from clashing swords."



However, in general, I feel that, mostly (not always) on this list, people decide a position and then argue it, no matter what the facts.

They choose to be down on certain players (Long, Kebe, Cummings, Howard) without very much REAL evidence, just "gut feel" based on often laughable prejudices.

Cummings is a perfect example. He went for UTTERLY USELESS, NOT A PLAYER to "Better than Griffin." in 6-7-8 games.

Kebe was pilloried for almost two years.


I say again, barring a serious, career-damaging injury, Long will score 10 Premiership goals, 20 Championship goals or 30 League 1 goals.

As he's "utter gash" I presume there will be a queue of people offering me 33-1?

[Victor Meldrew]

Has Long already scored the 10 Premier League goals?
IMHO he won't get another chance.

[Snowball]

Has Long already scored the 10 Premier League goals?
IMHO he won't get another chance.

Perhaps that's why I said 10 Prem OR 20 Championship OR 30 League 1


(and I meant 10 in a full, playing season, obviously.)

He scored 5 Premiership goals in 16 (34) = 21.67 games. NOT BAD for a 20-21 year old.




In 2007-08 he did better than Doyle (of course they were 4-4-2 then)

34 (02) = 34.33 games for 6 goals = 1 goal every 5.72 games Doyle
07 (22) = 10.67 games for 3 goals = 1 goal every 3.55 games Long

[Royalee]

Go away Snowball.

[Tony Le Mesmer]

How the hell has this ended up discussing Diego bloody Forlan's strike rate?

Just give a rest . Please.

[Hoop Blah]

How the hell has this ended up discussing Diego bloody Forlan's strike rate?

Just give a rest . Please.

It's a shame snowballs spamming is preventing pretty much all of the reasonable debate and discussion.

Cam we just ban him please?

[Svlad Cjelli]

How the hell has this ended up discussing Diego bloody Forlan's strike rate?

Just give a rest . Please.

It's a shame snowballs spamming is preventing pretty much all of the reasonable debate and discussion.

Cam we just ban him please?

Amen to that. What started off as an amusing curiosity has now turned into a major irritant.

[cmonurz]

A load of statistical guff.....


Now HOW exactly has my argument been weakened?

You're almost out of control, aren't you. I simply said (rightly) that your stats in this example were an absolute mess. A paragraph that talks about all games, and then his 'career stats' that don't include cup or European games, or 18 months of his career at United.

On that basis, I'm not sure how much we can trust the stats you are posting.

That's not unreasonable. What's unreasonable is calling me a twat because I call your statistical 'analyses' into question, and I'd have to concur with other posters that it might be better than you just stop.

[Wimb]

How the hell has this ended up discussing Diego bloody Forlan's strike rate?

Just give a rest . Please.

It's a shame snowballs spamming is preventing pretty much all of the reasonable debate and discussion.

Cam we just ban him please?

Amen to that. What started off as an amusing curiosity has now turned into a major irritant.

This

[Wimb]

How's this for a stat.

FROM OPEN PLAY IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP SHANE LONG HAS SCORED 13 GOALS FROM OPEN PLAY SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2008/2009. IN THREE SEASONS HE AVERAGES LESS THEN 5 GOALS A SEASON.

If you want to keep banging on about ''cup goals' 'penalties won' 'assists' blah blah blah. FINE but the statistics clearly show that Shane Long is not scoring enough goals, end of.

It's a complete and utter rubbish stat

Player X scores 44 goals in 3 seasons
Player Y scores 11 goals in 3 seasons

Who is the better player?

If you can answer that you're an idiot

You need to know HOW MANY Games they've played



Player X has played every league and cup game, 150 games, 44 goals, so he's an OK striker

Player Y played 2 games, scored 2 goals, was in a car crash didn't play again that season, started season 2 and scored a hat-trick, then 2 goals, then 2 more, 8 in three games and got leukemia. Near the end of season 3 he came back and scored 4 goals in the last 3 games for his club, every one from a 65 yard dribble beating all the opposition players twice. Player Y is a genius about to be sold for 10 million.

Don't remember Long having a car crash tbf so I don't see what relevance any of that is to this argument He's been fit and available for the majority of 3 years. If we're talking about statistical methodology then I take your point but I find that slightly hypocritical as you yourself aren't prepared to analyse or critique your own stats....

Anyway back to Shane Long....

Shane Long since opening day 08/09 in the Championship.

Apps 48+(35) Goals from open play = 13

If we go by your general thinking of say 15 mins per average sub appearence say round that up to about 54 games? (if that's not fair we'll just strike off his 3 goals that were as a sub...)

SO.... 54/13 = 1 Goal from open play every 4.15 games.

To me the above is the stat that most relates to my own opinion on Shane. It's not the worst ratio and as you've said other strikers have had worse, but that's besides the point as we're discussing now and the future of this team. I think Shane works hard, does well for the team BUT doesn't do enough in front of goal. Right now we can carry Shane and his performances in areas other then in front of goal are doing enough to help the team win.

However long term if that Ratio doesn't come down nearer 2.5 then I don't feel the team will be able to push on. Long has shown himself to have the potential to go on a run of scoring but there's only so long you can wait for a player to go on a run before you either drop him or let him move on. I don't think we're there right this second as the team seems to be doing ok, but it's getting very close and I think Noel Hunt and Simon Church have earned the CHANCE to see if they can do that role better then Shane.

They might well go ahead and flop in the role but until they get given 20-30 starts as Shane has then how can anybody prove that Shane IS the man for the job. Historical stats and personal opinions based on watching football can give you hints and clues but that's about it.

You've made nearly 400 posts on Shane Long bringing in every stat known to man, so perhaps if you just summarised your opinion on Long and which stats you think are MOST relevant into 1 neat post it would help.

[songvip]

Aug 0
Sep 2
Oct 4
Nov 0
--------
= 6


Dec 4
Jan 4
Feb 5
Mar 6
Apr 6
May 0
--------
= 25

[Wimb]

Aug 0
Sep 2
Oct 4
Nov 0
--------
= 6


Dec 4
Jan 4
Feb 5
Mar 6
Apr 6
May 0
--------
= 25

This is?

[Snowball]

Shane Long since opening day 08/09 in the Championship.

Apps 48+(35) Goals from open play = 13

If we go by your general thinking of say 15 mins per average sub appearence say round that up to about 54 games? (if that's not fair we'll just strike off his 3 goals that were as a sub...)

SO.... 54/13 = 1 Goal from open play every 4.15 games.

And how many OTHER goals did he score in the same time? When did we start dismissing goals scored with free-kicks, or from free-kicks, or penalties?

Did you think to ask, how many goals in open play Gylfi scored? He's a 7 Million Pound player.

[Wimb]

Shane Long since opening day 08/09 in the Championship.

Apps 48+(35) Goals from open play = 13

If we go by your general thinking of say 15 mins per average sub appearence say round that up to about 54 games? (if that's not fair we'll just strike off his 3 goals that were as a sub...)

SO.... 54/13 = 1 Goal from open play every 4.15 games.

And how many OTHER goals did he score in the same time? When did we start dismissing goals scored with free-kicks, or from free-kicks, or penalties?

Did you think to ask, how many goals in open play Gylfi scored? He's a 7 Million Pound player.

Gylfi was a midfielder not picked to score goals, I don't ever recall an argument about how good/bad he was in front of goal, or how good bad Gylfi was in the lone strikers role, so what on earth does he have to do with Shane Long or this specific debate?

I've already said and others have agreed that penalties are widely regarded to not be indicative of a strikers ability in front of goal as they are a totally different beast. I believe his effectiveness from the penalty spot would safely come under the 'doing well in other areas' that I have given Long credit for.

I'm not critiquing his play in other areas I'm using relevant statistics to support my belief that he doesn't score enough from open play. Do you have a relevant stat that would counter-act mine?

[Snowball]

Gylfi was a midfielder not picked to score goals, I don't ever recall an argument about how good/bad he was in front of goal, or how good bad Gylfi was in the lone strikers role, so what on earth does he have to do with Shane Long or this specific debate?

NOW who's getting silly? Gylfi had 131 attempts at goal last season, More than Long and Church combined.

He played in the hole and we all know it. He was "second-striker" playing deep. Please don't be disingenuous.

I've already said and others have agreed that penalties are widely regarded to not be indicative of a strikers ability in front of goal as they are a totally different beast. I believe his effectiveness from the penalty spot would safely come under the 'doing well in other areas' that I have given Long credit for.

Well I think that getting goals is getting goals, and the record books just show goal totals. How many league top-scorers were top-scorers because they took the penalties?

[/quote]
I'm not critiquing his play in other areas I'm using relevant statistics to support my belief that he doesn't score enough from open play. Do you have a relevant stat that would counter-act mine?[/quote]

Yes i DO have a relevant stat, and it is a CRACKER. See next post