by Wimb »
15 Nov 2010 05:14
Snowball cmonurz There's so many holes in your argument I don't know where to start, but suffice to say, if you can't even concede it's harder to score 20 goals in 2 years than it is to score 10 goals in 1 year, then there's really no point me even starting.
Yes, but there is no reason per se to suggest that a striker breaking thru and getting ten
cannot repeat it for many seasons. Many do.
It may be "harder" but they get better and more experienced.
Are you saying that "a few" or "many" strikers, after getting a good season, fail to replicate it?
I am saying that many strikers break thru, have a good season and continue to have good seasons, with the natural ups and downs.
I am also saying that Shane will score 10+ this year and 11+ this year. Do you think that's tosh?
URZ is right and the fact was if Long was going to score those goals in the Premier League days then he would have A) been picked when we couldn't score for toffee and B) would no longer be at this club as his ability to score goals in the top flight would have been spotted and he would have been bought up by at least a WBA, Blackpool etc.
You are correct Snowball in that Long is coming on as a player and has improved significantly since his debut in 2005, but the evidence isn't currently there to suggest he's going to do it over a full season.
I know you'll rant off about this but I'll say it anyway. Take off the penalties and AT THE MOMENT Long is on track for about 3 league goals from open play, if he moved to a club with an entrenched penalty taker then the stats would project him to only score 3 over a season. However as noted he is a Reading player and does take (and credit given, win) penalties so I'm not ignoring that fact.
The problem is right now that neither you nor URZ can be proved right or wrong, just make guesses, something I believe URZ has conceded/admitted far more then yourself.
You could take Long's purple patch last year and if he was confirmed as penalty taker, you'd be accurate in saying 'Long's on track for 30 goals a year' but if you look at March onwards you'd look on paper and say 'Long's probably a 10-12 goal a season striker if he's kept on penalty duty.
But Snowball is right in saying that until Long's had that full season, or arguably 2-3 of starting 35-40 games then it's impossible to know how he's going to pan out. Right now Since he's been a week in week out starter he's looking more like a 8-9 (open play) goal a season man but that could change in a hurry and it only takes a little flurry of goals to make him look like a 10-15 goal man.
As for the comparison with Kitson/Doyle then it's pointless as they are just different players, from different teams and of different ability levels. I'd guess off the top of my head that Long's ratio is about the same as Martin Williams was in 98/99 - 99/00 and Skittles never made it.