Long - Time to go.

[Royal With Cheese]

Are you saying that "a few" or "many" strikers, after getting a good season, fail to replicate it?

I am saying that many strikers break thru, have a good season and continue to have good seasons, with the natural ups and downs.

Well I can give you an example where that quite clearly isn't the case.

Step this way, Mr Lita.........

[cmonurz]

Exactly RwC. And that was my initial point. Not that Long won't keep 'improving', not that no player ever does, but that some do, and some don't, and there's nothing specific about Shane Long that convinces me that by age 25 or 26, he is going to be a 15-20 goal striker, not least because, after 16 games of this campaign, he has one goal from open play.

Snowball - you pass off Skittles as you never saw him (should have done the same with Forster btw), but you mention it might be down to 'form'. Well yes, his 'form' disintegrated and never recovered. Likewise for all the promise Lita showed (and from time to time still does for Middlesbrough), he doesn't look like ever becoming the goalscorer he looked like being when he got 20-odd in a season for Bristol City.

What you have to understand however, is that in the case of Williams and certainly Lita, they had good season behind them. In Long's case, he doesn't, so to think 'he'll get there in the end' is more about faith than anything else.

[Snowball]

Are you saying that "a few" or "many" strikers, after getting a good season, fail to replicate it?

I am saying that many strikers break thru, have a good season and continue to have good seasons, with the natural ups and downs.

Well I can give you an example where that quite clearly isn't the case.

Step this way, Mr Lita.........

Of course. I thought of him too. But we can all think of single examples, even 2-3

But that's the classic gambler's error. It's overall tendencies you need to consider

To test the theory, you'd look at top-scorers at clubs and see if they are replicating their form more-or-less (injuries excepted) year on year

Kitson YES
Doyle YES
Long YES, gradually getting more goals per season 4-5-9-9 and about 11-12 projected this season
Forster, YES, even when he started to fade he had 16-11-9 in his last 3 seasons

Lita YES! 30-15-14-12*-8- "9"

* 12 (2+10 (RFC/Charlton/Norwich)) (8 Goals last season for Boro; 3 in 17 this season for Boro so on for 9 or thereabouts)

So I wouldn't really say Lita is "blown" would you?

[Wycombe Royal]

At the rate Long's goalscoring rate is increasing he going to be nearing retirement by the time he reaches 20 in a season.

Also he might be on for 11 or 12 this season which is obviously more than the 9 he has got in the past two seasons but surely he is going to have played more minutes this season and scored more penalties. In my book that would not be much of an improvement.

[Snowball]

Exactly RwC. And that was my initial point. Not that Long won't keep 'improving', not that no player ever does, but that some do, and some don't, and there's nothing specific about Shane Long that convinces me that by age 25 or 26, he is going to be a 15-20 goal striker, not least because, after 16 games of this campaign, he has one goal from open play.

Snowball - you pass off Skittles as you never saw him (should have done the same with Forster btw), but you mention it might be down to 'form'. Well yes, his 'form' disintegrated and never recovered. Likewise for all the promise Lita showed (and from time to time still does for Middlesbrough), he doesn't look like ever becoming the goalscorer he looked like being when he got 20-odd in a season for Bristol City.

What you have to understand however, is that in the case of Williams and certainly Lita, they had good season behind them. In Long's case, he doesn't, so to think 'he'll get there in the end' is more about faith than anything else.

Lita's 30-goal season was in League 1.
He followed that with 11 in the CCC + 4 , (from 25 (7) games) about par, wouldn't you say? It's harder as you move up the leagues
Then 7 Prem goals (again "par" + 7 others) (from 26 (12) ) (sheesh he's better than I though, bring him back!)
Then a Prem goal and another for RFC but two loan spells where he got 8 more goals, so again close to par)
Then 8 goals for Boro
Then, this season, 3 so far, looking like 8-9 again)

[Snowball]

I don't understand how you can say Long hasn't had any good seasons

His last two seasons he has 9 goals each season, total 18, one penalty?

He played 4,199 minutes and got a goal every 233 minutes or less than 2.5 games

[Wycombe Royal]

I don't understand how you can say Long hasn't had any good seasons

Where did I say that?

[Snowball]

I don't understand how you can say Long hasn't had any good seasons

Where did I say that?

I was responding to cmonurz who said

What you have to understand however, is that in the case of Williams and certainly Lita, they had good season behind them.

In Long's case, he doesn't, so to think 'he'll get there in the end' is more about faith than anything else.

So is cmonurz right? Has Long NOT had a good season? I say he's had 2 good seasons and this will be better than either.

[BR2]

Just to expand on the Williams comparison.

Martin Williams - (not broken down into starts/subs but in his RFC career around 1/4 were sub appearances)

Season 96/97 32 games 3 goals
Season 97/98 37 games 8 goals
Season 98/99 30 games 11 goals
Season 99/00 39 games 6 goals

Totally different quality of player obviously but Williams was in a similar position to Long from what I remember in that we had few other quality options and was being asked to do a lot on his own up front. Despite promise and gradual increase in goals, his form petered out by 99/00 and he scored 11 goals in the rest of his career after leaving us.

Hoping this won't happen to Long but a warning of what can happen.

Before my time, and I know nowt about the bloke. Could be any number of explanations, form, booze, family grief, injuries, anything.

But Long is still noticeably IMPROVING. His touch is MILES better, his ability in the 1 of 451 is getting better every game, he is now getting shots away and just a tad unlucky. Great goal at QPR against a top keeper, the lob v Cardiff could easily have dropped in, the first-time volley against Norwich was as good as it could be, not really anyone's "fault" it was straight at the keeper.. he dithered slightly for his other shot but did make sure, did get his shot away and made the keeper pull off a good save. And that's 3 goals in 5 games, one an absolute belter, at least two more shots on target, a great assist, a free-kick won that led to a goal, an opponent sent off. What more can we expect from a striker?

On the point about Long "improving" and his touch being "miles better" I disagree on both counts.
Also amongst your many threads you say you have been following football for only 50 years-novice.

[cmonurz]

Imho, no, Long has not had any 'good seasons'. He has been at this club for five/six years and essentially only in the last 12-18 months has he really started to force his way into the starting line-up consistently. And then during that time, he hasn't scored enough goals. Imho.

Scoring a handful of goals when the manager deems you worthy of the odd start doesn't scream 'improvement' to me, it says 'not quite good enough'. And when he has got a run in the side, he hasn't, imho done what he needs to. I make that 2 goals from open play in his last 27 now.

It's just my opinion, and Long's all-round game against Norwich was very good, but as a goalscorer, I just don't ever believe he will be a player we can rely on, 451, 442 or whatever formation we use.

There was a post somewhere that suggested Long would make a decent winger. And I jokingly suggested McDermott 'do a Fergie' and turn him into a midfielder like Alan Smith. But to be honest given Long has got stronger on the ball, quicker, better in the tackle, I don't think I'd mind seeing him lining up on the flank. He could get away a bit more with his dodgy first touch there, too.

[Wycombe Royal]

I don't understand how you can say Long hasn't had any good seasons

Where did I say that?

I was responding to cmonurz who said

What you have to understand however, is that in the case of Williams and certainly Lita, they had good season behind them.

In Long's case, he doesn't, so to think 'he'll get there in the end' is more about faith than anything else.

So is cmonurz right? Has Long NOT had a good season? I say he's had 2 good seasons and this will be better than either.

I would say Long has had a couple of OK seasons, but not good ones. He doesn't score consistently enough for me. He is a hadful for opposition defences but he just doesn't threaten the goal enough - my eyes tell me that and no end of stats will prove otherwise.

[Ian Royal]

I hadn't realised snowball was such a johnny come lately bandwagon jumper. Never seen Forster or Williams. Tch, makes me look like a veteran and I thought I was a fairly late starter to watching the Royals.

EDIT: by the way. I watched the highlights of all our league games again last night out of boredom. Does anyone think there was much chance of Long scoring any of the chances he was taken down for to win a penalty?

The only one I can recall where he did get through and wasn't fouled he spaffed it about 10 yards wide (against Pompey). I think a manager could risk telling his defence to just let him through but keep him under pressure, rather than risk him going over in the box, given his (and Harte's) obvious penalty taking skill.

[cmonurz]

Same, even I saw Skittles and I've only ever been a fairweather fan (well apart from our final Elm Park season when I inexplicably went to about 30 games).

[Royal With Cheese]

You could add Colin Gordon into the mix but now I'm showing my age!

[Snowball]

Also amongst your many threads you say you have been following football for only 50 years-novice.

I said "at least" 50 years. It's actually 113, whippersnapper.




To be strictly honest, I saw my first game in I think 1953 or thereabouts.

My first memory is of watching Alf Sherwood play for Newport County.

Here's something to frighten the shit out of the Harte-Haters. Sherwood was 33 when he joined NCAFC and he went on to play another 200 games for them!



Sherwood went on to become one of the all time appearance leaders for the club in all competitions before he was allowed to leave the club by manager Trevor Morris, to join Newport County, in 1956 at the age of 33. He went on to confound critics by playing in over 200 hundred matches for Newport as well as adding his last two Wales caps at the club. He was selected to play in the Third Division South representative team in 1957 aged 34.

[Snowball]

I would say Long has had a couple of OK seasons, but not good ones. He doesn't score consistently enough for me. He is a hadful for opposition defences but he just doesn't threaten the goal enough - my eyes tell me that and no end of stats will prove otherwise.

Sorry, but you're sinking in a river in Egypt.



Two seasons where he has scored a goal every 223 minutes? That is VERY consistent scoring, better than Doyle, about the same as Kitson.

The problem is "salience and relevance" again. Had he played twice as much and scored at the same rate he would be forefront in your mind.

But show me 5 current championship strikers who have records better than a goal every 223 minutes.

[Ian Royal]

No one wants to bother because it doesn't make Long a consistent goalscorer or actually very good. The fact is Long has previously been defended because he didn't get a good run in the team. Now he has had a couple of good runs in the team he still can't score consistently.

And that's based on actually looking at his record in detail, not just dividing up his goals and games, which has already been proven to give a distorted impression because of a couple of purple patches of scoring.

[Wycombe Royal]

I would say Long has had a couple of OK seasons, but not good ones. He doesn't score consistently enough for me. He is a hadful for opposition defences but he just doesn't threaten the goal enough - my eyes tell me that and no end of stats will prove otherwise.

Sorry, but you're sinking in a river in Egypt.



Two seasons where he has scored a goal every 223 minutes? That is VERY consistent scoring, better than Doyle, about the same as Kitson.

The problem is "salience and relevance" again. Had he played twice as much and scored at the same rate he would be forefront in your mind.

But show me 5 current championship strikers who have records better than a goal every 223 minutes.

As that is worked out on a minutes per goal basis I don't have, and neither do you have, the career minutes per goals of every Championship striker.

But again it is irrelevant and I can tell you now a consistent goalscorer scores his goals, for the majority of the time, on a consistent basis and not in short bursts. Now I know we have gone here before and I know you will cite Doyle again but the evidence is plain for all to see that Long scores his goals generally in short bursts.

And anyway who are you to tell me what I can or can't see with my own eyes? You will notice I have NEVER slagged off Shane Long but I also don't think he is the next great striker. Like I said before I can form my opinion without the use solely of stats.

Why can't you accept ANYONE elese opinion? There isn't a right or wrong answer? You can't force people to take your opinion just because your manipulated stats show what you want them to.

[Terminal Boardom]

Lies, damn lies and statistics

Long's workrate and effort can not be faulted. However, this does not mean that he is a natural striker let alone goalscorer. If a list of top ten best strikers to wear the hoops, Long would not be one of them. Of the ones I have seen over the years, these would be my top 10 but in no particular order:

Ollie Kearns
Robin Friday
Jimmy Quinn
Martin Butler
Jamie Cureton
Kerry Dixon
Trevor Senior
Kevin Doyle
Dave Kitson
Nicky Forster

Sorry, Shane Long is nowhere near this list.

[Snowball]

URZ is right and the fact was if Long was going to score those goals in the Premier League days then he would have A) been picked when we couldn't score for toffee and B) would no longer be at this club as his ability to score goals in the top flight would have been spotted and he would have been bought up by at least a WBA, Blackpool etc.

You're being disingenuous.

When Long arrived he was 18 and very green, and "one for the future" getting very short sub appearances and learning his trade in the cups when we put our second-teams.

At the start of our first season in the Premiership, Long was 19+ and had played a handful of games.
He had shown promise but Kitson, Doyle, Lita were "seasoned pros" all ahead of him, vastly more experienced

against that, this green kid, now aged 19 and a half, had FIVE starts and 10 sub appearances (4 Goals)
Oh and a single appearance EVER, for Cork, don't forget that.

157 Senior Appearances 40 Goals + 46 RFC Goals - Kitson
137 Senior Appearances 25 Goals + 19 RFC Goals - Doyle
117 Senior Appearances 31 Goals + 15 RFC Goals - Lita
016 Senior Appearances 00 Goals + 04 RFC Goals - Long

The idea that Long is going to actually COMPETE with those three is frankly ludicrous.

The fact that he got starts is testimony to his promise.

After a full season in the Premiership the numbers were:

174 Senior Appearances 40 Goals + 50 RFC Goals - Kitson
171 Senior Appearances 25 Goals + 32 RFC Goals - Doyle
155 Senior Appearances 31 Goals + 29 RFC Goals - Lita
040 Senior Appearances 00 Goals + 08 RFC Goals - Long ---- He actually started 9 times in the Prem that first season, which I find incredible, against Doyle-Lita (Kitson)

Look what happens when you compare seasoned pro Kitson versus the kid Long in that second Prem season

9 (04) Premiership games for 2 Premiership Goals 3 (1) Cup Games for 2 Cup Goals KITSON
9 (12) Premiership games for 2 Premiership Goals 3 (0) Cup Games for 2 Cup Goals LONG