Long - Time to go.

[Snowball]

There's no 'switch', Long's inability to score from open play for Reading remains a concern, I don't see how that has changed.

If Long was to play every game until the end of the season, leading the line in 451, and "all" he
does is score another 8 goals for us, 2 of which are open play, and we make the play-offs, then
quite frankly I couldn't give a flying monkey's oxf*rd about your concerns. They are an INVENTED concern.

How goals are scored is utterly, totally irrelevant.

I understand that your "theory" is he's incapable of scoring those open-play goals, but that's all it is, a theory and a very dumb one at that. Long has shown, over the seasons that he scores at least 84% of his goals in open play, so historically, saying he can't is DUMB. This season he has scored two goals in open play and warmed the keeper's hands a few times. So THIS season it's also DUMB to suggest he can't score goals in open play.

So we then get to the realisation that it isn't that he isn't scoring in open play, but he's getting fouled a lot more in the box and winning the penalties. We can see that because of the 7 penalties we know he's won/taken, 5 are in the last dozen games. No doubt he's won other pens in the past (eg for Gylfi at Liverpool) but I doubt anyone except a moronic Long-Hater would deny that we seem to be getting a lot of penalties and almost all are through Long.

Some decry him as a cheat. How about the man committing the foul?

If they didn't foul there wouldn't be a penalty, and Shane's "goals in open play" ratio would be BETTER than Doyle or Kitson


Realise that. If ONE of Long's penalties had not in fact drawn the foul and he scored he'd then be 33/38 (5 Pens)

If he hadn't won those penalties this season and had scored just once from the chances he'd be 33/35 = 94.3% open play, better than Kitson, better than Doyle


but then

If Long starts scoring in open play you'll probably note his misses and/or say he's selfish

[cmonurz]

I understand that your "theory" is he's incapable of scoring those open-play goals, but that's all it is, a theory and a very dumb one at that. Long has shown, over the seasons that he scores at least 84% of his goals in open play, so historically, saying he can't is DUMB. This season he has scored two goals in open play and warmed the keeper's hands a few times. So THIS season it's also DUMB to suggest he can't score goals in open play.

Dumb, now? More insults. You are a very rude person.

As for the paragraph I've quoted - this is another example of selective presentation of statistics, to suit your argument.

According to you, my claim that Long struggles to score from open play is dumb because of the proportion of his goals (85%) scored from open play. You should already know where I am going with this.

If Long had scored 1 goal from open play in 5 years, and 1 goal in total, he would have scored 100% of his goals from open play. But that would not mean he has no problem scoring from open play.

This is an extreme example to illustrate in as clear terms as possible the fallacy of your claim above.

The fact is that Long has scored just league 6 goals in open play since August last year, 4 of which came in a 4 game burst around last Xmas. Since that quite magical 4 game burst of scoring, Long has 2 goals from open play in 27 matches for Reading, and those 27 games include 26 starts. The proportion of his goals in open play is irrelevant, I am looking at how many goal there are in total.

To take that recent form, all league games since the start of last season, and claim he has no problem scoring from open play, is absolutely ridiculous.


And I'll say it again, your inability to concede any ground on this subject has eliminated your credibility entirely.

You've decide to ignore the point about Doyle receiving equal stick when he couldn't score.

And if Long could start scoring some bloody goals, or even look like scoring from open play, I'd be as big a fan of him as you are.

[Snowball]

I read, many moons ago, that strikers did not reach their peak until at least 26 years old, and that their best years were 26-29.

The reason for that was that any physical decline between 26 and 29 was more than compensated for by the increased experience.

I've defended Shane Long based on the fact above, and, of course, as usual, been decried and ridiculed for it.


Well, presuming that "GENERALLY" the Actim Top 100 reflects GENERALLY those players playing well this season,
would anyone like to guess the average age of the players? Would anyone like to guess how many, or how few players are under 24?




I'm working my way though the Actim list.










The average age of the first 26 players (random order) is EXACTLY three years to the day older than Shane Long.

It won't stay that way, I'm sure but it looks like, the peak will work out (start of season) as 26 Years 7 Months or very close to that.


This means we should expect, barring injury, this season to be Shane's best yet, next season better again,
an even better one the one after that, and better the year after that, followed by three good, steady years

Just like happened to Kitson, Doyle

[cmonurz]

That's not a response to anything, it's just you meandering again.

[Wycombe Royal]

Incidentally, Wycombe and others. Think on this.

Long has scored 38 goals, 6 of which have been penalties.

Of those 4 of the last 5 goals have been penalties. All those penalties HE WON (And he also won another penalty which Harte took)

Now I realise you are all ultra-pessimists and convert that fact to "Long cannot score in open play" (despite the fact that he has scored twice in open play this season)


BUT IS THERE NOT ANOTHER FAR MORE LOGICAL INTERPRETATION?

Long is getting into the box now, with power and DRAWING FOULS with greater skill.
OR
Long is getting into such dangerous positions defenders are fouling him more often.
OR
Unlike earlier in his career, it's almost impossible to dispossess Long in the area without giving away a foul

There is a very sound statistical-logical argument for this. Namely that the penalties are compressed into recent games 67% (really it's 5/7 = 70%) in the last 10 games. That clearly shows a very definite change in what is happening when Long gets the ball in the box.

I do like the way you ignore what people's opinion really are and just have a rant anyway.

[Wycombe Royal]

AND THE REF DIDN'T. Obviously, though, you know better than the
man on the pitch being paid to spot penalties and book divers.

So are you now saying the referee is ALWAYS right?

Definitely NOT, Just 1,000 times more often right than some prejudiced jerk in the crowd

Any need to call people prejudiced jerks? And refs are frequently wrong. For example the ref that sent Holt off incorrectly also had another red card overturned just two weeks earlier.

Referees have a hard job and have to make split second decisions, but they certainly aren't "1,000 times more often right than some prejudiced jerk on the crowd". If they were there wouldn't be constant discussions about the poor state of refereeing would there?

[Terminal Boardom]

Snowball.

Thankfully you are 63. If you were 80 I would swear that you were my father. He is as pedantic and stubborn as you and does everything possible to avoid admitting that there are other opinions out there.

[Snowball]

I understand that your "theory" is he's incapable of scoring those open-play goals, but that's all it is, a theory and a very dumb one at that. Long has shown, over the seasons that he scores at least 84% of his goals in open play, so historically, saying he can't is DUMB. This season he has scored two goals in open play and warmed the keeper's hands a few times. So THIS season it's also DUMB to suggest he can't score goals in open play.

Dumb, now? More insults. You are a very rude person.

Oh DEAR. I did NOT say (ad hominem) that YOU were dumb or ANYONE ELSE was dumb. READ WHAT I SAID.

Here it is, luv: so historically, saying he can't is DUMB

I am talking about a dumb action. A genius can commit a dumb action.

Look up ad hominem if you really don't know the difference

As for the paragraph I've quoted - this is another example of selective presentation of statistics, to suit your argument.

Now THAT, IS ad hominem. Because you impugn me DIRECTLY, referring to my MOTIVE or mental state or personality.

Get the difference?

According to you, my claim that Long struggles to score from open play is dumb because of the proportion of his goals (85%) scored from open play. You should already know where I am going with this. If Long had scored 1 goal from open play in 5 years, and 1 goal in total, he would have scored 100% of his goals from open play. But that would not mean he has no problem scoring from open play. This is an extreme example to illustrate in as clear terms as possible the fallacy of your claim above.

No it is a DUMB example. Note this refers to the example, not the poster of the example.

It is dumb (very VERY dumb) because we know that Long has scored more than one gaol, in fact 32 in open play.

The fact is that Long has scored just league 6 goals in open play since August last year, 4 of which came in a 4 game burst around last Xmas. Since that quite magical 4 game burst of scoring, Long has 2 goals from open play in 27 matches for Reading, and those 27 games include 26 starts. The proportion of his goals in open play is irrelevant, I am looking at how many goal there are in total. To take that recent form, all league games since the start of last season, and claim he has no problem scoring from open play, is absolutely ridiculous. And I'll say it again, your inability to concede any ground on this subject has eliminated your credibility entirely.

So let me see, you choose your arbitrary 27 matches, and refer to "Just 6 LEAGUE goals in open play"... Note the dirty sleight of hand. "LEAGUE" why isn't the cup relevant. Did Long where magic boots in the cup? Why are internationals not relevant? Surely a perfectly valid way of looking at a player is very simply ALL his competitive games? The moment you start taking some out, it looks like you are deliberately excluding games where he did well.

(a) You've decide to ignore the point about Doyle receiving equal stick when he couldn't score.

Do you note, (a) and (b) above. Do you remember posting that Doyle's worst-ever run was 27 games WITHOUT SCORING AT ALL? You say (pretend) that you're even handed! Hah-Hah!

I presume this 27-game run is the one you consider to be Long's worst?

And (according to you) he ONLY scored 6 open-play goals AND 4 PENALTIES? Is that right? If not how many penalties? For simplicity (we can get the exact figure shortly) you are saying that Long, in 27 games scored ten goals of which 60% were in open play.

The direct comparison with Doyle's 27? Doyle didn't score ANY GOALS OF ANY KIND


It's the way you deliberately do things. Ignore internationals, he's doing too well in those 5 goals (1 pen) 4 open play in 5 (10)... Drop the fantastic, FANTASTIC game he had againt Liverpool, where coming on late he first saved the game by winning a penalty (making Gylfi look good) then scored a great OPEN PLAY header, just at Anfield, that's all.

Flash in the pan? No, he then scored TWO open play goals against Villa, another Premiership side... But let's brush over them too

[Gordons Cumming]

Just watch Long in the pre-match warm-up and you will see that he isn't a natural finisher.

If he was, he'd score more goals.

I remember Coppell saying he was a little unconventional.

End of.

[Snowball]

Definitely NOT, Just 1,000 times more often right than some prejudiced jerk in the crowd

Any need to call people prejudiced jerks? And refs are frequently wrong. For example the ref that sent Holt off incorrectly also had another red card overturned just two weeks earlier.

Referees have a hard job and have to make split second decisions, but they certainly aren't "1,000 times more often right than some prejudiced jerk on the crowd". If they were there wouldn't be constant discussions about the poor state of refereeing would there?

99% of spectators are prejudiced jerks. Of course they are. The other word is "fan".




Giving a red (in real time) when it might not be a red is no "wronger" than the fans baying when the foul occurs.

So a quick poll. AT THE TIME OF THE FOUL ON HARTE, AT THE IMMEDIATE MOMENT, how many
of us thought it was a very bad foul? I "KNEW" it was, and so did everybody around me in the crowd.

Not ONE person suggested a dive or that Harte wasn't badly hurt. Not a SINGLE one.

And that's what the ref sees. The fact that after 36 re-runs in slow motion we get to have a new opinion, is bollox.

Before TV replays we all would have "KNOWN" and within weeks we would have been describing how Harte's foot came off and flew across the pitch.

[Terminal Boardom]

So a quick poll. AT THE TIME OF THE FOUL ON HARTE, AT THE IMMEDIATE MOMENT, how many
of us thought it was a very bad foul? I "KNEW" it was, and so did everybody around me in the crowd.

Any stats to back this up?

[Snowball]

That's not a response to anything, it's just you meandering again.

Oh KEEP UP Gwathoppa.

It is a response to comments in this thread.

I have raised the issue that Long is very young for a striker and nowhere near his prime
and that he will get better this season and for the next 3-4, I had a long back and forth
with Wycombe over it.

It\s not my fault if you have the memory-retention of a goldfish, is it?

[Snowball]

So a quick poll. AT THE TIME OF THE FOUL ON HARTE, AT THE IMMEDIATE MOMENT, how many
of us thought it was a very bad foul? I "KNEW" it was, and so did everybody around me in the crowd.

Any stats to back this up?

Yes.

[Snowball]

Incidentally, Wycombe and others. Think on this.

Long has scored 38 goals, 6 of which have been penalties.

Of those 4 of the last 5 goals have been penalties. All those penalties HE WON (And he also won another penalty which Harte took)

Now I realise you are all ultra-pessimists and convert that fact to "Long cannot score in open play" (despite the fact that he has scored twice in open play this season)


BUT IS THERE NOT ANOTHER FAR MORE LOGICAL INTERPRETATION?

Long is getting into the box now, with power and DRAWING FOULS with greater skill.
OR
Long is getting into such dangerous positions defenders are fouling him more often.
OR
Unlike earlier in his career, it's almost impossible to dispossess Long in the area without giving away a foul

There is a very sound statistical-logical argument for this. Namely that the penalties are compressed into recent games 67% (really it's 5/7 = 70%) in the last 10 games. That clearly shows a very definite change in what is happening when Long gets the ball in the box.

I do like the way you ignore what people's opinion really are and just have a rant anyway.

Where is the rant in that?

It's a sensible question. Wassup. You in shock?

[cmonurz]

Snowball, I'm done with you. You're manipulative, aggressive, condescending, and moreover, absolutely incapable of responding in a polite, even-handed or conciliatory manner. You are constantly rude, twist what people have written, meander on to your own points and

As I've already posted on this thread, I'm a stats fan (just ask Rother and my obsession with Kevin Pietersen) and I like that you bring a different angle to the debate but your inability, or moreover reluctance, to accept others' points of view just makes you out as a lecturer, a playground bully, 'agree with me or you're a moron'. It's quite pathetic, and to be quite frank I don't give rat's cock whether I've 'impugned' you because over the course of this thread you've treated me and others to a long stream of playground insults that my 7 year old godson would be proud of.

You'll be pleased to know I'm taking no further part in this charade of a 'discussion'. It isn't one and never has been.


*Picks up ball and leaves with it.

[Wax Jacket]

Well I think we should all congratul8 Hugo for what has turned into something of a Team Board 'Best Of'

[Mintymurray]

You go son!

[brendywendy]

Snowball, I'm done with you. .

LOL!!!!!!!!!!gay

*Picks up ball and leaves with it.

Rescued

[Victor Meldrew]

Serious competition for Kevin Doyle and Robbie Keane. Not bad eh?

Don't give a sh*t about the micks national team, m8.

Well said Floyd and I wish our three would all f**** off back to Ireland.
Long,Harte and Hunt are all divers and all argue with the refs over every decision-watch them in the next game when they flap their arms and hands (like Rooney and Fletcher at Man Utd) in a very childish manner.
Mills,Howard and Church are the same but they can't all f*** off as we would have no team left.

[Snowball]

Shane Long isn't in a goal drought, because to be in a goal drought you have to have previously scored goals regularly. 'Regularly' does not mean one purple patch of 4 games last season, and a handful of penalties this season, in five years at the club.

I note that when I pointed out Long had just got four goals in 6 games, you said he had only done it once before in his career. Correct

How about this little run, then? 8 goals in 662 minutes. Not bad eh?

First column is minutes on the pitch


39 13-01-2010 English FA Cup Livp’l 1-2 Reading 1 Won 90th Minute Penalty. Scored E-T goal in open play, all against Premiership opposition
12 16-01-2010 Championship Forest 2-1 Reading 0 Long clean through on goal. ref blows for foul on Kebe!
26 23-01-2010 English FA Cup Reading 1-0 Burnley 0 Long, brilliant reverse ball to McAnuff. Pulled down in area. Long volley saved
90 26-01-2010 Championship Sheff U 3-0 Reading 0 Long wins penalty. MISSED by Gylfi. Has shot saved.
90 30-01-2010 Championship Reading 1-0 Barnsley 1 Long wins game with only goal. Shot from Bertrand cross Open Play
90 06-02-2010 Championship Don’c’r 1-2 Reading 1 Header from Howard cross. Open Play
90 09-02-2010 Championship Reading 2-1 Plym’th 2 One penalty, one goal in open play Won 3 Points in 90th Minute
45 13-02-2010 English FA Cup Reading 2-2 WBA 0 Long sent off in 45
90 07-03-2010 English FA Cup Reading 2-4 Villa 2 Two goals in open play against Premiership opposition
90 10-03-2010 Championship Reading 4-1 Derby 1 Beat Man 30 yards out, forward, shot from 18 yards, open play

8 goals in 10 appearances totaling 662 Minutes on Pitch = 7.35 games, three of those games against Premiership opposition

Scored 8 goals, 7 goals in open play
Won 3 penalties, took one, scored it (included in the 8 goals) one of the other pens scored, one missed

Scored winning goals v Barnsley, Liverpool, Plymouth